الفوركس التداول ثائقي بي بي سي - بودكاست

. فوركس تف - أفضل البرامج أمب الأفلام للتجار ل أفضل تعليم الفوركس: 2. 2018. فينتاغيدوكاتيون استراتيجيات تداول العملات الأجنبية: لدينا فيديو بعنوان فوركس تف هو شريط فيديو مع توصيات كبيرة لتجار الفوركس. نوصي بعض الأفلام العظيمة، ويظهر الأفلام الوثائقية التي يمكن أن تساعد في تطوير تداول الفوركس الخاص بك، وكذلك التمتع في نفس الوقت. اطلع على هذه التوصيات، واحصل على توصيات المكافأة من خلال النقر على الرابط أدناه. فينتاجيدوكاتيون يستغرق وقتا طويلا لبناء الناس في الحياة الحقيقية مربحة التجار. نحن متخصصون في اتخاذ مبتدئين وجعلها تجار الفوركس مربحة باستمرار. نحن لا نعزز استراتيجيات التداول الوهمية التي تضاعف حساب التداول الخاص بك في غضون يومين. العديد من الشركات تغري التجار مع وعود كاذبة من هذا القبيل. هدفنا هو أن نكون صادقين وتبين للمبتدئين ما لديك فعلا للقيام لتصبح مربحة في الفوركس. المطالبة بقعة الخاص بك في حياتنا القادمة جلسة الفوركس الحرة فينتاجيدوكاتيونويبينارس اسمي إسرائيل تم إنشاء موقعنا فينتاجيدوكاتيون لمساعدتك على جعل المال تداول أسواق الفوركس باستمرار. من خلال تبين لك كيفية التجارة بالضبط لتحقيق أرباح كبيرة، حتى لو لم يكن لديك حساب فوركس كبير. وتعطيك الفرصة أحلم لسنوات. أن تكون قادرة على قضاء الوقت الحقيقي مع الأصدقاء والعائلة. اشترك الآن للحصول على تحديث في بلدي مدونات الفيديو يوتوبيوسيرفينتاجيدو. الموقع الرسمي: فينتاجيدوكاتيون لعرض بلدي بلوق اليومي: فينتاجيدوكاتيونبلوغ اتبعني في: كتاب الوجه: web. facebookvintageducation تويتر: تويترفينتاجيدوكاتيون جوجل بلس: plus. googleu1b1143298. الرابط في: لينكدينينفينتاجيدو. إيتونس: itunes. applegbpodcastf. الفوركس، تداول الفوركس، ميفسبوك، فينتاجيدوكاتيون، كسب المال على الانترنت، تداول العملات، تداول الفوركس على الانترنت، فوركسثورسداي، المالية، تداول العملات الأجنبية، سوق الفوركس، تداول المدى، تداول العملات الأجنبية، - دفد مجانا يكشف عن كيفية البدء في كسب المال تداول الفوركس حتى لو كنت مبتدئ مع خبرة محدودة. ميفوريكسدفد مشاهدة المزيد: كم يمكنك جعل من تجارة الفوركس - يوتوبيواتشفوري. كيفية تداول الفوركس - واحد خدعة الفوركس للأرباح - youtubewatchvcS3gV. هو المعلم الفوركس الخاص بك الغش تحديد الغش العملات الأجنبية - youtubewatchveli63. الأكثر مشاهدة أشرطة الفيديو: 1. فيبوناتشي استراتيجية التداول - فيبوناتشي التداول للمداخل، وخروج مناطق عكس المحتملة - youtubewatchvH18P4. 2. علم النفس التداول - الفوركس - youtubewatchv6eL8x. 3. استراتيجيات تداول المدى الفوركس - يوتيواتشففسككس. - فينتاغيدوكاتيون - تعليم الفوركس للمبتدئينالبنك تتجه صورة حقوق التأليف والنشر جيسون سبيرز شرح الصورة وقد ذكرت على نطاق واسع أن هؤلاء الرجال كانوا ألمانيا، ولكن لم يتم تأكيد جنسيتهم حتى الآن جميع الصور، الأسبوع من المشجعين من السود في مباراة ألمانيا ضد غانا تسبب غضب في جميع أنحاء العالم - في كل مكان ولكن ألمانيا. هنا هو كيف بدأت: كنت مستاء جدا. كنت غاضبا، كيف يصف جيسون سبيرز، وهو محام من ولاية ألاباما، رد فعله عندما واجه الأول من مجموع ثمانية مشجعين مع وجوه سوداء في نهاية الأسبوع الماضي ألمانيا-غانا مباراة كأس العالم. كان هناك حتى أشخاص يصطفون لالتقاط الصور مع مجموعة منهم، كما يقول. سبيرز، الذي هو من أصل أفريقي، واجه بعض الرجال وقال لهم - وبعبارات لا لبس فيها - كيف هاجم والعنصرية وجد سلوكهم. ويقول إن ردهم كان من الحيرة. وجد سبيرز في وقت لاحق نفسه يجلس بالقرب من اثنين من المشجعين الآخرين مع وجوه سوداء حتى والقمصان مع غانا مكتوبة عليها. وقال انه يفترض انهم الالمان يرتدون لتهديد المعارضة. أمسك صورة سريعة ونشره إلى صفحته في إنستاغرام. وخلال الأيام التالية، انتشر الغضب العالمي. تم نشر مشاركة سبيرس على نطاق واسع، وأعيد نشرها على تويتر والفيسبوك. الناس في ألمانيا، أنهم يعتقدون مضحك مو أسومانغ، صانع وثائقي كان هناك عشرات الآلاف من التعليقات على وسائل الاعلام الاجتماعية - بما في ذلك 10،000 تويت باستخدام بلاكتاج الهاشتاج. جاء معظمهم من الولايات المتحدة وكانوا حرجين للغاية - انتقدوا الرجال في الصورة على أنها عنصرية، ودعوا كرة القدم في العالم هيئة تحكم فيفا للتحقيق. فيفا نظرت في البداية فتح قضية تأديبية، لكنه قال بي بي سي تتجه أنها قررت عدم متابعة ذلك. ولكن مع استمرار المحادثة العالمية، بدأت الفروق الدقيقة والشقوق في الظهور. أولا، على الرغم من أن سبيرز يعتقد أن الرجال في الصورة أن يكونوا ألمانيين، والبعض الآخر على وسائل الاعلام الاجتماعية اقترحوا أن يكونوا من المعجبين السويسريين هناك لدعم غانا. نظرية واحدة هي أن انشقاقهم كان نية حسنة - وإن كانت أخرق - لفتة. بالنسبة للرماح، بغض النظر عن مكان وجودهم، أو الذين كانوا يدعمون، كانوا يمثلون الكاريكاتير الهجومية. إذا كنت تريد أن يهتف إلى غانا، يمكنك ارتداء قميص غانا، كما يقول. حقوق الطبع والنشر الصور جيتي إيماجيس كابتيون في الولايات المتحدة، ويرتبط بلاكفاس مع عروض مينسترل - مثل هذا واحد من 1931 في ألمانيا نفسها، كان هناك نقاش قليل نسبيا من الصورة على وسائل الاعلام الاجتماعية أو وسائل الإعلام الرئيسية في البلاد. ولكن ما كان هناك نقاش، كان مختلفا تماما في تينور. لا أحد يريد العنصرية، ولكن عليك أن تسأل، هل هذه العنصرية حقا يقول ساشا ميشال، الذي يدرس في جامعة كوبلنز في ألمانيا، و تويتد عن الصورة. خلع الملابس أمر شائع في وقت الكرنفال، كارنيفال. في ألمانيا. يقول الناس - رجال الشرطة والبحارة والحيوانات، على سبيل المثال، فضلا عن وجوه مظلمة حتى الناس اللباس كل أنواع الأشياء. وهو لا يرى أي فرق بينهما، ويجادل بأن الناس الذين ينتقدون السود يبدون صوابا سياسيا. بدأ البعض على وسائل الاعلام الاجتماعية لتبادل صورة من مروحة سوداء مع فاسيباينت الأبيض في مباراة كأس العالم، وذلك باستخدام الوسم الأبيض الوسم. وتساءل - ربما من المفارقات - ما إذا كان ذلك عنصريا أيضا. حقوق الطبع والنشر للصورة تويتر - الأصل الدقيق ليس معروفا الصورة التوضيحية هذه الصورة - وما شابهها - تم تقاسمها على نطاق واسع أيضا على الإنترنت الناس في ألمانيا، ويعتقدون أنها مضحك، ويقول مو أسومانغ صانع الفيلم الألماني الغاني الذي قام مؤخرا بعمل فيلم وثائقي عن العرق في الولايات المتحدة وألمانيا. الألمان لا يعرفون بالضرورة عن عروض مينسترل في الولايات المتحدة حيث الجهات الفاعلة البيضاء حيث اسودد للعب السود - الذين تم تصويرهم على أنها غبية، كسول ومجموعة كاملة من القوالب النمطية العنصرية والسلبية الأخرى - كما تقول. في ألمانيا، الناس فقط بدأت للتو السؤال. ويشعر بعدم الارتياح، حول بلاكفاس. وأود أن أقول إن من المهم جدا الآن أن تساعدنا البلدان الأخرى قليلا في هذه المناقشة، كما يقول أسومانغ. في العام الماضي فقط، تم تصوير ألمانيا المستشارة أنجيلا ميركل بجانب بعض الأطفال السود الذين يشاركون في يوم الملوك الثلاثة، حيث في ألمانيا - تقليدية لبعض الأطفال إلى السود لتمثيل أحد الملوك. حقوق الطبع والنشر جيتي إيماجيس إيماج كابتيون تم تصوير أنجيلا ميركل أكثر من مرة بجانب طفل في بلاكفاس - هذه الصورة مأخوذة من عام 2009 ربما كان أكثر إثارة للقلق، كما يقول أسومانغ، حفنة من تويت عنصرية للغاية من الألمان خلال مباراة غانا. قراءة واحدة: نأمل أن يموت عدد قليل من الرجال من الإيدز في منتصف الميدان. وأشار آخرون إلى الرق. ألمانيا أبعد ما تكون عن كونها البلد الوحيد في أوروبا حيث يكون أحيانا مقبولا اجتماعيا للأسود. هولندا لديها سانتا كلوز الصاحب الأسود بيت. الذي يلعبه شخص أبيض مع الوجه الأسود. وتسببت مجموعة من ضباط الشرطة في فرنسا في جدال في وقت سابق من هذا الشهر عندما كانوا في حفلة سوداء. المزيد عن هذه القصة على هيئة الإذاعة البريطانية الإذاعة المتداولة على هيئة الإذاعة البريطانية بي بي سي وورلد سيرفيس يوم السبت الساعة 11:30 بتوقيت المحيط الهادي (10:30 بتوقيت جرينتش). يمكنك الاستماع هنا، أو تحميل البودكاست. Trend بعد بدء هنا 8220I8217m غير مريح للغاية مع تداول الصندوق الأسود حيث I8217m التعامل مع خوارزميات أنا don8217t فهم. كل ما نقوم به يمكننا القيام به على ظهر مظروف مع قلم رصاص. 8221 تتبع الاتجاه السائد على البساطة (سجل حافل لمدة 40 عاما) تقدم تريند فولوينغتراد خدمات التدريب والاستشارات والسوق للمستثمرين والتجار من المبتدئين إلى الإيجابيات المحنكة إلى الأمهات، و البوب ​​لمديري الصناديق مليار دولار. وتعمل هذه النظم لأنها تستغل بصورة منهجية كل جانب من جوانب قوانين الطبيعة البشرية التي لا يمكن دحضها. حتى لو كنت مستثمر ناجح أو تاجر لسنوات، وأوقات تتغير. و بسرعة. إذا كنت لا تعلم كيفية استثمار تريند فولوينغتراد الطريقة التي سيتم تركها للقتلى ماليا خلال البجعة السوداء المقبل. بطبيعة الحال، إذا كنت تثق الحكومة للتقاعد هذه الرسالة الحادة سوف يسبب عدم الراحة. مهمتنا هي فتح الاستثمار والتداول 8220black box8221. لفضح كيف يعمل كل شيء حقا. هذه الصفحات مهمة حاسمة لمساعدتك على إتقان تريند فولوينتراد حرفيا في غضون أسابيع. هذه المجموعة من الموارد والأدوات والتكتيكات هي بداية لتصبح الاتجاه التالي التاجر في القرن ال 21: وصف الصوت من تريند فولوينغتراد المنتج الرئيسي: الذي هو تريند فولوينتريد ل مايكل بدأ 100 من الصفر. وكان من الخارج للاستثمار والتجارة. لذلك يرى تريند فولوينتراد كاستراتيجية للجميع. وهذا يعني أنه ل: العلامة التجارية الجديدة المستثمرين والتجار. المستثمرين والتجار المحترفين والمؤسسيين. حرق شراء وعقد المستثمرين تسعى للحصول على بديل. الأسهم، الفوركس (الفوركس)، صناديق الاستثمار المتداولة، السلع، ليب والتجار الآجلة. مديري الصناديق واتفاقات الاستثمار الإقليمية. التجار الفنيين والمخططين. طلاب الكلية. المتقاعدون يضرون من قبل زيرب و نيرب سياسات البنك المركزي. أي شخص يسعى فوق المتوسط ​​الأرباح في أعلى أو أسفل أو مفاجأة الأسواق. الاتجاه الرئيسي فولوينتراد الروابط يمكنك الآن تداول الاتجاه التالي أساليب التداول مستوحاة من 8220Market Wizard8221 الأساطير: 8220Michael Covel8217s تريند فولوينغ. Essential.8221 إد سيكوتا الاتجاه أسطورة التالية في الأصل في 8220 سوق Wizards8221 8220 الطريقة أراه، لديك خيارين 8211 يمكنك أن تفعل ما فعلت والعمل لمدة 30 عاما، والحصى معا قصاصات من المعلومات، والسعي لخلق استراتيجية صنع المال، أو يمكنك قضاء بضعة أيام قراءة كتاب Covel8217s الاتجاه التالي وتخطي أن ثلاثة عقود منحنى التعلم .8221 لاري هايت الاتجاه أسطورة التالية أصلا في 8220Market Wizards8221 مقابلة: 8220 الناس don8217t تريد المزيد من المعلومات. فهي تصل إلى مقل العيون في المعلومات. يريدون الإيمان. الإيمان فيك، أهدافك، نجاحك و في القصة التي ترويها. 8221 شير ذيس: كوبي 2004-17 تريند فولوينتراد جميع الحقوق محفوظة اتصل بنا تريند فولوينتريد، تورتلترادريريغ، تورتلترادريريغ هي علامات تجارية للعلامات التجارية تريند فولوينغ. العلامات التجارية وعلامات الخدمة الأخرى التي تظهر على شبكة تريند التالية من المواقع قد تكون مملوكة من قبل تريند التالية أو من قبل أطراف أخرى بما في ذلك أطراف ثالثة لا ينتمي إلى تريند التالي. مقالات ومعلومات عن الاتجاه لا يمكن نسخ أو إعادة طبع أو إعادة توزيع شبكة المواقع من المواقع دون إذن خطي من مايكل كوفيل و تريند فولوينغ (ولكن يتم الحصول على إذن كتابي بسهولة وعادة ما تمنح). والغرض من هذا الموقع هو تشجيع التبادل الحر للأفكار عبر الاستثمارات والمخاطر والاقتصاد وعلم النفس والسلوك البشري وريادة الأعمال والابتكار. وتستند محتويات هذا الموقع على آراء مايكل كوفيل، ما لم يذكر خلاف ذلك. وتستند المواد الفردية إلى آراء المؤلف المعني، الذي قد يحتفظ بحق المؤلف كما هو مذكور. وتهدف المعلومات على هذا الموقع كما تقاسم المعارف والمعلومات من البحوث والخبرة من مايكل كوفيل ومجتمعه. لم يتم تصميم المعلومات الواردة في هذه الوثيقة لاستخدامها كدعوة للاستثمار مع أي مستشار لمحة. جميع البيانات على هذا الموقع مباشرة من كفتك، سيك، ياهو المالية، وجوجل وثائق الإفصاح من قبل المديرين المذكورين هنا. نحن نفترض أن جميع البيانات لتكون دقيقة، ولكن لا تتحمل أي مسؤولية عن الأخطاء أو السهو أو الأخطاء الكتابية التي أدلى بها المصادر. تريند فولوينتريد الأسواق وتبيع مختلف البحوث الاستثمارية والمنتجات الإعلامية الاستثمارية. القراء هم وحدهم المسؤولون عن اختيار الأسهم والعملات والخيارات والسلع والعقود الآجلة، والاستراتيجيات، ومراقبة حسابات الوساطة الخاصة بهم. تريند فولوينتراد والشركات التابعة لها والموظفين والوكلاء لا يطلبون أو ينفذون الصفقات أو يقدمون المشورة الاستثمارية، ولا يتم تسجيلهم كسماسرة أو مستشارين مع أي وكالة اتحادية أو حكومية. اقرأ إخلاء المسؤولية الكامل. شاهد فيلم مايكل كوفيلز الآن. الاتجاه الوحيد التالي وثائقي مثل المحتوى المجاني لدينا انقر هنا للحصول على أفضل أن تريند فولوينغتراد لهذا العرض. نحل العسل الناضجة من قبل المحاصيل المعدلة وراثيا نحن التحقيق: هل نحل العسل المعرضة للخطر من المحاصيل المعدلة وراثيا مع قتل مستعمرات النحل بوتيرة سريعة ، يشعر الخبراء بالقلق إزاء الآثار المترتبة على الإمدادات الغذائية العالمية. تم القضاء على ما يقرب من 50 من خلايا النحل 8217s من العام الماضي بسبب مرض غامض الذي من المحتمل أن يسببه مادة كيميائية معينة الواردة في المحاصيل المعدلة وراثيا (غمو)، وفقا لتقرير جديد لصحيفة نيويورك تايمز. منذ عام 2005، تفشي ما يسميه العلماء 8220 كولوني اضطراب Disorder8221 وقد قتل بسرعة من 30 من سكان العالم من نحل العسل كل عام. وحقيقة أن هذا الانخفاض المذهل في عدد سكان نحل العسل خلال العقد الماضي ارتفع إلى ما يقرب من 50 في الولايات المتحدة في العام الماضي العديد من المراقبين قلقين، وفقا للتقرير (على الرغم من أن نحل العسل ليست حاليا أنواعا مهددة بالانقراض). ويقوم بعض المسؤولين الحكوميين والعلماء ومحاربي النحل حاليا بتكثيف الجهود لوضع اللوم على فئة متزايدة من المبيدات الحشرية المعدلة وراثيا، والمعروفة باسم نيونيكوتينوادس. هذه المبيدات الحشرية القائمة على النيكوتين يمكن أن تقتل نحل العسل عن طريق إصابة أدمغتهم بالسموم. واليوم، يتم تلقيح أكثر من 100 من المحاصيل الزراعية من قبل نحل العسل في الولايات المتحدة، التي تبلغ قيمتها أكثر من 10 مليار دولار. أكثر من 80 كل أنواع النباتات المزهرة تتطلب التلقيح للبقاء على قيد الحياة. ويساور الخبراء القلق من أنه إذا لم يتوقف هذا الاتجاه، فإن الآثار المترتبة على كل من الاقتصاد والأمن الغذائي العالمي يمكن أن تكون مدمرة. ومن المؤسف أن الوكالات الفيدرالية في أمريكا التي كلفتها بمراقبة وحماية أمننا الأمني ​​بشكل صارم من أجل تحقيق الأمن الغذائي 8217 قد تم اختيارها من قبل مصالح الشركات الكبيرة التي أشعلت أرباحا ضخمة من دفع المحاصيل المعدلة وراثيا. وفيما يلي وثائقي بي بي سي بالتفصيل الانخفاض العالمي من السكان النحل العسل بعنوان: من قتل النحل العسل إذا كنت ترغب في معرفة المزيد عن الاتجاه المزعج، والتداعيات في نهاية المطاف، على نطاق واسع من اصطدام كولوني اضطراب، وأحثكم على مشاهدة وفيلم وثائقي آخر بعنوان "تلاشي النحل". آخر بودكاست مهمتنا في فولثيموني بسيطة. نحن موجودون لتثقيف وتجهيز وتمكين الأفراد لتحقيق الحرية المالية والشخصية والروحية. يتم تعبئة موقعنا على الانترنت مع الحكمة الاستثمار العملي، والرؤى الجيوسياسية المتطورة، والأفكار الدخل فريدة من نوعها. إذا كنت تريد أن تصبح مستثمر أفضل، وخلق المزيد من الدخل، أو مجرد اكتساب فهم أفضل للأحداث الجارية، فولثيموني هو المصدر الخاص بك. جيري روبنسون. ECONOMIST. تداول الأسهم الحصول على أحدث من جيري روبنسون: التداول الحر الدرس 8211 كيفية تداول الأسهم الذهبية الحصول على الدروس التجارية الحية من جيري روبنسون مرتين في الأسبوع تابع على فاسيبوك برايس فور جيري ROBINSON8217S بوك جيري روبنسون يقوم بعمل ممتاز في شرح نظام بترودولار. ويوضح كتابه بالضبط كيف سيأتي هذا، ولكن بنفس القدر من الأهمية هو القسم الشامل حول ما يمكنك القيام به لحماية نفسك. - G. إدوارد جريفين، المؤلف والسينما صانع الأسبوعية تحديث المعادن الفخمة استمع كمستشار المعادن الثمينة المخضرم، توم الغيمة، وتبقي لكم ما يصل إلى التاريخ في أسواق الذهب والفضة. تحديثها أسبوعيا. تحميل مجاني: الذهب والفضة مجموعة المستثمرين من القراء لقد كان لدي خوف غير عقلاني من الخيارات التجارية لسنوات. شجعني أشرطة الفيديو التعليمية الممتازة لي على اتخاذ يغرق. شكرا لك الحصول على الأرباح الممنوحة التجارة إيداس شعبية بودكاست إبيسوديس فتمديلي الاستخدامات (ويوصي) عرض الوقت محدود استضافة المواقع فقط 2.95mo. الحصول على نطاق مجاني بناة الموقع مجانا 1-انقر فوق وردبريس تثبيت 247 الدعم نرى ذلك في العمل ساعدت ليدباجيس أكثر من ضعف قائمة المشتركين البريد الإلكتروني لدينا إلى أكثر من 35،000 في أقل من 6 أشهر. يبلغ متوسط ​​معدل التحويل الآن 60 إلى 80 في جميع الصفحات المقصودة. بام مور (التسويق نوتز، الرئيس التنفيذي) محاولة البرنامج الكامل، لا دفع المطلوبة استخدام جاكسي للكشف عن سخونة ومعظم الكلمات الرئيسية مربحة على الانترنت. عرض فتمدايليس إمايل ماركيتينغ المقارنة بين برامج الفيديو فيديو: إنشاء بنفسك الذهب إتف فيديو الوصف. الاستماع كمستشار المعادن الثمينة، توم الغيمة، ويشرح كيفية الحصول على المعادن الثمينة المقتنيات من النظام المصرفي الأمريكي من خلال خلق المعادن الثمينة الخاصة بك إتف

ثنائي خيارات القمار عمولة

لجنة المقامرة في المملكة المتحدة تحذر من تنظيم الخيارات الثنائية بابليشيد أون ماي 26، 2018 أوكغ ريجولاتيون أدفيس قدمت لجنة المقامرة في المملكة المتحدة (أوكغك) المشورة إلى تجار الخيارات الثنائية في المملكة المتحدة. أنها تريد أن تضمن للمستهلكين فهم كامل للمنتجات المعروضة، ولكن الأهم من ذلك، استخدام المرخصين فقط والسماسرة المنظمة. وكانت أوكغ مسؤولة عن ترخيص وسطاء الخيارات الثنائية في المملكة المتحدة منذ قانون المقامرة لعام 2005. ومع ذلك، فإن حكومة المملكة المتحدة تدرس نقل المسؤولية إلى سلطة السلوك المالي (فكا). فكا التنظيم سوف توفر للمستهلكين في المملكة المتحدة حماية أكبر بكثير، ويبدو خطوة معقولة، نظرا لنمو تداول الخيارات الثنائية. لم يظهر أوكغك في السابق أي حماسة كبيرة للدخول في المشهد الخيارات الثنائية، لذلك هذا البيان الصحفي الأخير هو موضع ترحيب. في ذلك، أنها تقترح المستهلكين بحثا كاملا في السوق. واحدة من النقاط الرئيسية التي أدلى بها أوكغ هو أن التجار يجب التأكد من استخدام وسطاء مرخصة ومنظمة فقط 8211 المستهلكين الذين ليسوا متأكدين أو لديهم شكوك حول المشغل، لا ينبغي استخدام خدماتها. يجب أن يتم عرض تأكيد الترخيص والتنظيم بشكل بارز على الموقع الإلكتروني لأي وسيط خيارات ثنائية. حماية أموال المستهلكين هناك أيضا تحذير آخر بشأن حماية أموال المستهلكين إذا فقد المستهلكون المال أثناء استخدام مشغلي غير مرخص لهم، ثم الهيئة التنظيمية لا يمكن استرداد هذا، أو تقديم أي تعويض. وكثيرا ما يغفل عنصر الحماية هذا، ويفترض أحيانا عدم وجوده على الإطلاق. ومع ذلك، فإن أوكغ يمكن أن تساعد في حل النزاعات حيث يكون الوسيط مرخصا في المملكة المتحدة. وفي الحالات التي قد يكون فيها المستهلكون قد وقعوا ضحية للسماسرة غير المرخص لهم، يوصي أوكغ بالاتصال بالإحتيال على الإجراءات. قراءة بيان أوكغ الكامل على الخيارات الثنائية هنا. ويتبع تحذير أوكغ رسائل مماثلة صادرة عن المنظمين الفرنسيين 8211 أوتوريت ديس مارتشيس فينانسيرس (أمف). وفي فرنسا، قام مشغل واحد على وجه الخصوص بإساءة استخدام شعار الهيئة التنظيمية واتخذت خطوات قانونية للتعامل مع تلك الشركة. وردد صندوق النقد العربي العديد من التعليقات التي قدمتها أوكغ، بما في ذلك أهمية استخدام الوسطاء الخاضعين للرقابة فقط. وتوضح هذه البيانات نمو الخيارات الثنائية وحاجة المنظمين إلى إعلام الجمهور بكيفية ضمان استخدامهم لوسطاء موثوق بهم وحماية أنفسهم من المخاطر. وقد ساعد تنظيم سيسيك على تحسين بعض القضايا التي عصفت بالقطاع قبل ذلك، كما يمكن أن تزيد لوائح فكا إلى أبعد من ذلك، وتزود المستهلكين في المملكة المتحدة بثقة مطلقة. لدينا قوائم المقارنة وسيط تظهر بوضوح ما إذا كان وسيط ينظم أو not. Binary خيارات - التغييرات المحتملة في التنظيم الخيارات الثنائية تسمح للمستهلكين للمضاربة على الحركة على المدى القصير في سعر الأدوات المالية مثل الأسهم. معرفة كيف قد تبدأ فكا تنظيمها. فكا لا تنظم حاليا الخيارات الثنائية أنت لا تتمتع حاليا الحماية التي يقدمها الإطار التنظيمي للخدمات المالية في المملكة المتحدة عند شراء الخيارات الثنائية حكومة المملكة المتحدة حاليا التشاور حول ما إذا كان ينبغي فكا تنظيم الخيارات الثنائية في المستقبل ما هي الخيارات الثنائية الخيارات الثنائية تسمح والمستهلكين للمضاربة على الحركة على المدى القصير في سعر الأسهم والسلع، والعملة، ومؤشر، أو مجرد عن أي شيء قادر على أن يتم قياسها من الناحية المالية. على سبيل المثال، هل يمكن أن تراهن في 1.25 مساء أن الأسهم شيز سوف إما زيادة أو نقصان في السعر بحلول 1.30. الفترات الزمنية المعنية تميل إلى أن تكون قصيرة جدا (5 أو 10 دقائق) ولكن بعض الشركات تقدم فترات أطول للمراهنة على. إذا كنت تخمين بشكل غير صحيح تخسر أي أموال مخبأة، ولكن تخمين بشكل صحيح ويمكنك الفوز مبلغ ثابت من المال. تنظيم الخيارات الثنائية في المملكة المتحدة يتم تنظيم الخيارات الثنائية الحالية من قبل لجنة المقامرة في المملكة المتحدة، ولكن فقط إذا كانت الشركة لديها معدات القمار عن بعد تقع في بريطانيا. إذا لم يكن الأمر كذلك، فإن أي خيارات ثنائية تقدمها الشركة لن يتم تنظيمها إما من قبل لجنة المقامرة أو من قبلنا، فكا. ومع ذلك، تعتبر بلدان الاتحاد الأوروبي الأخرى أن الخيارات الثنائية هي منتج مالي، وليس منتجا للمقامرة. بموجب قانون الخدمات المالية للاتحاد الأوروبي. فإن الشركات التي يتم إنشاؤها قانونا والمرخص لها في بلد واحد من المنطقة الاقتصادية الأوروبية - وهي المنطقة الاقتصادية الأوروبية تضم جميع دول الاتحاد الأوروبي وكذلك النرويج وليختنشتاين وأيسلندا - يحق لها القيام بأعمال تجارية في أي بلد آخر في المنطقة الاقتصادية الأوروبية بمجرد الوفاء ببعض الضمانات الإجرائية. وهذا يعني أنه على الرغم من أن الهيئة لا تنظم حاليا الخيارات الثنائية، فإن الشركات التي تقدم تداول الخيارات الثنائية التي تعمل كشركات خدمات مالية في دول المنطقة الاقتصادية الأوروبية الأخرى، قادرة على القيام بأعمال تجارية في المملكة المتحدة، وبالتالي تظهر على سجل شركات الخدمات المالية. ما هو التغيير تقوم حكومة المملكة المتحدة بالتشاور حول مقترحات للتعامل مع الخيارات الثنائية كمنتج مالي وليس مقامرة. وهذا يعني أن الخيارات الثنائية ستنظم من قبلنا، فكا، وذلك تمشيا مع الممارسة في معظم أنحاء الاتحاد الأوروبي، ولم تعد تنظمها لجنة المقامرة. إذا كنت ترغب في الرد على التشاور، يمكنك القيام بذلك هنا. تغلق المشاورة في 18 يونيو 2018. المخاوف بشأن تداول الخيارات الثنائية المستهلكين في المملكة المتحدة الذين يشاركون في تداول الخيارات الثنائية قد لا يكون على بينة من أنه ليس، في الوقت الراهن، نشاط تنظيم فكا. قد يعتقد المستهلكون أنهم يستثمرون وأن لديهم الحماية القياسية للإطار التنظيمي للخدمات المالية في المملكة المتحدة، عندما لا يكون الأمر كذلك. وتنصح لجنة المقامرة بأن يقوم المستهلكون في المملكة المتحدة ببحث السوق بعناية قبل المشاركة في مثل هذه الأنشطة. للتحقق من حصول الشركة على ترخيص تشغيل من لجنة المقامرة، يمكن للمستهلكين البحث في السجل العام للمرخص لهم. لا يمكن للجنة المقامرة تقديم تعويض للمستهلكين إذا فقدوا المال عند التعامل مع مشغلي غير مرخص لهم. إذا كنت في شك، حيث كنت تعتقد أن شركة تقدم الخيارات الثنائية قد لا تكون جديرة بالثقة أو شرعية، لا نقل الأموال لهم أو تزويدهم التفاصيل المصرفية الخاصة بك. الخيارات الثنائية للتجارة في المملكة المتحدة فقط ما هي الخيارات الثنائية في عبارات بسيطة جدا، فإنه هو شكل من أشكال الاستثمار. يتم استخدام كلمة ثنائي لأن هناك اثنين فقط من النتائج المحتملة. إما أن التجارة ناجحة، ويكسب المستثمر عائد كبير (عادة ما بين 65 إلى 95) أو التجارة غير ناجحة، وفقدان مبلغ الاستثمار الكامل. حتى 8216binaries8217 (أو 8216digital options8217) هي شكل مخاطر عالية من الاستثمار، ولكن تقديم مكافآت عالية. يتم تنظيم معظم الوسطاء، وتقدم للمستهلكين نوع الحماية التي يتوقعونها أثناء استخدام الأدوات المالية من هذا النوع. بيناري أوبتيونس إكسليند يتم تداول هذا النوع من الخيارات على الأصل، على سبيل المثال سعر السهم. قيمة السلع أو سعر الصرف الأجنبي. والفرق الرئيسي بين الاستثمار التقليدي، والثنائيات، هو التحديد الواضح للمخاطر والمكافأة قبل إجراء التجارة. وسوف يعرف المستثمر بالضبط كم هو في خطر، والحاسم، وأيضا معرفة القيمة الدقيقة لأي عوائد المحتملة. ولا ينطبق ذلك على الاستثمارات التقليدية، حيث لا تعرف المستويات النهائية للربح أو الخسارة إلا بعد إغلاق الصفقة. كما هو الحال مع الاستثمارات الأخرى، يجب على المتداول أولا أن يقرر ما إذا كان يشتبه في أن قيمة الأصول التي يتم تداولها سوف ترتفع أو تنخفض. درجة تغير الأسعار ليست مهمة. التاجر هو المضاربة بحتة على ما إذا كان السعر سيكون أعلى أو أقل من السعر الحالي، في وقت محدد في المستقبل. لذلك إذا شعر المتداول أن سعر النفط سوف يرتفع، وقال انه سوف يأخذ خيار 8216high8217 على النفط (مكالمة). إذا، عندما يكون الخيار 8216expires8217 (أكثر في أوقات انتهاء الصلاحية لاحقا) السعر أعلى، يفوز التاجر وسيحصل على قيمة التداول مرة أخرى، بالإضافة إلى 65 إلى 95. إذا كان السعر أقل عند نقطة انتهاء الصلاحية، فإن كامل الاستثمار سوف تضيع. كل خيار ثنائي هو اقتراح يسنو. على الرغم من أن هناك اختلافات على خيار هايلو، وهذا النوع من الاستثمار يكون دائما أبيض وأسود، يسنو، نتائج الثنائية. يتم تقديم أي خيار ثنائي مع وقت انتهاء الصلاحية. وهذه هي النقطة التي ستغلق فيها التجارة. وبالتالي فإن السعر عند انتهاء الصلاحية هو الذي سيقرر ما إذا كانت التجارة قد فاز أو فقد. يمكن أن تختلف هذه الأوقات انتهاء من 30 ثانية فقط، ليوم كامل، لفترة أطول في بعض الظروف (تصل إلى سنة كاملة). عموما، يتم استخدام هذه الخيارات الرقمية للتداول قصير الأجل عادة تحت 30 دقيقة. إن الاستحقاقات طويلة الأجل 8211 وعنصر المخاطر الثابتة 8211 يجعلها أدوات مفيدة للتحوط من الاستثمارات الأخرى. لذلك ما هو ثنائي التداول التداول ثنائي هو بالتالي مجرد عمل وضع الصفقات الثنائية. يمكن للمتداولين الاستثمار في الأسعار صعودا أو هبوطا، أو البقاء ضمن نطاق معين أو الوصول إلى قيمة محددة مسبقا. كل هذه هي الاختلافات على التجارة الثنائية، وكلها تمثل أمثلة على تداول الخيارات الثنائية. عند الإشارة إلى 8220trading8221، يكون العرض بشكل عام أطول. عند هذه النقطة يصبح مستوى العائد أكثر أهمية. كما ذكر، هذه تختلف من حوالي 65 إلى 95 8211 بعض الخيارات أكثر تفصيلا يمكن أن تذهب أعلى من ذلك. وسوف تختلف هذه العوائد من وسيط إلى وسيط، ولكن سوف تتغير أيضا تعتمد على الأصول ووقت انتهاء الصلاحية. الاختلافات يمكن أن تكون كبيرة حتى التجار الذين يتطلعون إلى استخدام الخيارات الثنائية على المدى الطويل، تحتاج إلى التجول في العثور على أفضل تعويضات لفئة الأصول (أو الطبقات) أنها تنوي التجارة أنها سوف تحدث فرقا كبيرا على المدى الطويل. الذي Binaryoptions. co. uk في binaryoptions. co. uk، ونحن نقدم مجموعة كاملة من الخدمات والمعلومات إلى أي شخص يتطلع إلى الانخراط في تداول الخيارات الثنائية. وتوفر هذه الخيارات طريقة مخاطر بسيطة نسبيا ومحددة للاستفادة من حركة الأسعار في معظم فئات الأصول الرئيسية. وهي منطقة متزايدة من التداول في المملكة المتحدة، وهذا هو أحد الأسباب التي تجعلنا نهدف إلى تقديم الدليل النهائي للتجارة الثنائية في المملكة المتحدة. الحصول على اتصال هنا. شرعي، استثمار بسيط على الرغم من أن التجارة الثنائية هي شكل متزايد من الاستثمار، فإنه لا يزال منتج غير معروف نسبيا. ومع مرور الوقت، من المرجح أن يتغير ذلك. كما توفر الخيارات الرقمية (كما هي معروفة أيضا) استثمار بسيط جدا، حيث المخاطر والمكافأة واضحة جدا في البداية. التجارة الثنائية هي 8216yes بسيطة أو نتيجة no8217. على سبيل المثال، سوف ارتفاع سعر السهم معين في القيمة أو سيتم الانتهاء من سعر الصرف أقل يحدد أوبدون أو يسنو النتيجة عنصر 8216binary8217. والسؤال الوحيد الذي يتجاوز ذلك هو تحديد الوقت الذي يتم فيه تعيين الخيار. قد يكون قصيرة مثل 30 ثانية، قد يكون شهر أو سنة أو في أي مكان بينهما. لذلك الثنائيات تقدم خيار التداول بسيطة، ولكنها أيضا عالية المخاطر عالية مكافأة. إذا كان التاجر صحيحا، سيشاهدون عائد استثمارهم يتراوح ما بين 70 و 95، يدفع بمجرد أن تكون فترة الخيار قد استقرت في غضون دقائق معدودة. إذا تحرك السوق ضدهم، فإنها تفقد استثمارها الكامل. ومع ذلك، لا يوجد التعرض للرافعة مع التجارة الثنائية، وبالتالي فإن نسبة المخاطر والمكافأة هي أيضا بسيطة لإدارة. البساطة يعطي ثنائي تداول it8217s القوة. وهي أداة يمكن استخدامها للتحوط من الاستثمارات الأخرى، أو يمكن تشغيلها كأداة استثمارية في ذلك الحق 8217s الخاصة. هناك ثروة من استراتيجيات التداول، وكل منها يلبي حاجة استثمارية محددة. هل هي آمنة هذه الخيارات تعويضات ثابتة عانت من سمعة سيئة. هذا هو عموما نتيجة للتسويق غير شريفة وغير مسؤولة، أكثر من قضية مع المنتج نفسه. الخيارات الثنائية هي عالية المخاطر عالية مكافأة ولن تناسب كل مستثمر. مع تشديد التنظيم، وفهم أفضل من قبل الجمهور على نطاق أوسع، يمكن لهذه الخيارات 8211 وسوف 8211 الانتقال إلى التيار الرئيسي المالي. الذي كان حيث وضعت أصلا. قراءة بعض أدلة التداول لدينا لمعرفة المزيد. بدلا من ذلك، مشاهدة هذا الفيديو من منصة خيارات إق، مما يدل على كيفية وضع التجارة الثنائية: ويمكن استخدام خيار ثنائي في عدد من الطرق، وعبر مجموعة كبيرة من السلع والأسواق. وهذا يعني العثور على أفضل وسيط، وأفضل حساب، أو أفضل منصة التداول، ويعتمد حقا على احتياجات المستثمر الفردي. على سبيل المثال، قد يركز بعض الوسطاء على ثنائيات الفوركس (النقد الأجنبي). وقد يركز البعض الآخر على خيارات السلع الأساسية ويقدم فقط حفنة من أسواق الفوركس. وبالمثل، قد تختلف العائدات (أو العوائد) بين فئات الأصول، ومع اختلاف هذه النسب بمقدار 25، فمن السهل معرفة سبب أهمية ذلك عند اختيار حساب تداول. قد تشير حدود الاستثمار أيضا بعض المستثمرين إما إلى، أو بعيدا عن بعض حسابات التداول. بعض السماسرة تقدم الحد الأدنى من الصفقات من 1 فقط، في حين أن آخرين تلبية للمستثمرين على استعداد لاستثمار 200،000 في تجارة واحدة. مرة أخرى، عند الحكم على منصة التداول الثنائية الأفضل، سوف يحتاج المستثمر إلى النظر في احتياجات التداول الخاصة بهم قبل اتخاذ قرار لفتح حساب. كيفية مقارنة أفضل منصات التداول يقدم جدول المقارنة ملخصا سريعا للنقاط الرئيسية عند مقارنة الوسطاء. وتتيح مراجعاتنا التفصيلية للتجار الجدد المحتملين تقييم بعض النقاط الدقيقة التي قد تؤكد قرارهم. وفيما يلي قائمة ببعض نقاط المقارنة الرئيسية للسماسرة العوائد دون وصفة طبية أو الخيارات المتداولة في البورصة الحد الأدنى للإيداع الحد الأدنى للتجارة الحد الأقصى للتجارة منصة التداول قوائم الأصول تواريخ انتهاء الصلاحية التنظيم (فكا، سيسيك، كفتك الخ) مجموعة من الخيارات المتاحة تفاصيل المكافآت الشكاوى ملاحظات العملاء بعض النقاط قد تكون أكثر أهمية لبعض التجار من الآخرين، لذلك العثور على أفضل سيكون الخيار الفردي لكل عميل جديد. الحسابات التجريبية هي وسيلة جيدة لمحاولة منصة دون أي مخاطر مالية. حسابات تجريبية تم إزالة بعض الصعوبات في اتخاذ مثل هذا القرار من قبل الوسطاء. معظمها يقدم حسابات التداول التجريبي. وتتيح هذه الخدمات للعملاء الجدد تجربة الخدمات المعروضة، ومعرفة ما إذا كانت مجموعة الأسواق وموازين الاستثمار تتناسب مع ذلك، وأن تنتقل إلى حساب ممول فقط عندما يكونون سعداء بأن حساب التداول الصحيح قد تم العثور عليه. سيعرض معظم الوسطاء حساب تجريبي. تلك التي تفعل، لديها الثقة في منصة التداول الخاصة بهم، وعلى استعداد للسماح التجار الجدد يرونه، ومحاولة بها، وخالية من المخاطر. فإن معظم هذه الحسابات تعمل على كل من الموقع، وأيضا التطبيق المحمول. لذلك يمكن للتاجر التحقق من كلا المنصات وضمان أنهم سعداء قبل إجراء وديعة. أفضل الحسابات التجريبية ليست الوقت مقيدة، والسماح للتجار إلى 8216top up8217 التوازن إذا لزم الأمر. هذا النوع من الحسابات يسمح للمستخدم ليس فقط محاكمة وسيط، ولكن أيضا استخدام حساب تجريبي لمحاولة استراتيجية تجارية جديدة، أو حتى اختبار مرة أخرى استراتيجية تقوم على البيانات المالية الماضية. تداول الثنائيات هنا في binaryoptions. co. uk ونحن نقدم أيضا نظرة ثاقبة استراتيجيات التداول. نحن قائمة السماسرة ومراجعة نقاط القوة والضعف منصة التداول الخاصة بهم. نسلط الضوء على حيث تتوفر حسابات التداول التجريبي وتقدم مجموعة من الأدلة التي تغطي الأساسيات. وبالإضافة إلى ذلك، ونحن أيضا تغطية مواضيع أكثر تخصصا، مثل النقد الاجنبى. إشارات التداول واستراتيجية الفوز. تتم كتابة مراجعات الوسيط لدينا بعد التداول الحقيقي على كل منصة. وتشمل جميع جوانب كل وسيط 8211 جيدة أو سيئة، لذلك أي شكاوى نتلقى تشكل جزءا من الاستعراض. وشملت عوامل المقارنة الهامة مثل المدفوعات، وأنواع التداول، ومتطلبات الحد الأدنى للإيداع 8211 ولكن بشكل فريد، وتشمل الاستعراضات لدينا أيضا أي شكاوى تلقيناها عن العلامة التجارية، أو مشاكل واجه التجار. مصداقية الاستعراضات مهمة بالنسبة لنا، لذلك يتم فحصها وتحديثها بانتظام والتغذية المرتدة التي نتلقاها تشكل جزءا من التقييم العام. من أجل التجارة الثنائية للانتقال إلى التيار المالي، خدمات المقارنة تحتاج إلى أن تكون مفتوحة وصادقة وشفافة 8211 وهذا هو ما نحاول وتسليم في استعراض وسيط لدينا. تم تصميم كل هذا لتزويد المستثمرين مع دليل نهائي لتداول الخيارات الثنائية في المملكة المتحدة تجنب الغش ثنائيات ليست عملية احتيال. ومع ذلك، هناك السماسرة ومقدمي الإشارات التي هي غير جديرة بالثقة وتشغيل الحيل. من المهم عدم شطب مفهوم التداول الثنائي، القائم على وسطاء غير شريفة. تستمر هذه الحيل في اسقاط صورة هذا الشكل من التداول، ولكن المنظمين بدأت ببطء في السيطرة على هذه العمليات ويتم تنظيف الصناعة. إذا كنت ترغب في تقديم شكوى حول مشغل، واسمحوا لنا أن نعرف عن طريق صفحة اتصل بنا. تجنب الحيل مع هذه الشيكات بسيطة: كسب المال على الانترنت أو الحصول على الأغنياء التسويق السريع. هذا هو العلم الأحمر الضخم. الخيارات الرقمية هي عالية المخاطر عالية سيارة الاستثمار مكافأة أنها ليست غنية مخطط سريع ويجب ألا تباع على هذا النحو. والمشغلون الذين يقدمون مثل هذه المطالبات غير شريفة. المكالمات الباردة. ونادرا ما يقوم السماسرة السمعة بإجراء مكالمات باردة لا يحتاجون إليها. وتكون المكالمات الباردة عموما من وسطاء غير جديرين بالثقة. فقي بعناية فائقة إذا كان المضي قدما مع الشركة التي حصلت على اتصال بهذه الطريقة. ويمكن أن يشمل ذلك الاتصال بالبريد الإلكتروني. شروط وأحكام المكافأة. إذا أخذ مكافأة، قراءة الشروط والأحكام. وتشمل بعض المصطلحات ربط أي إيداع الأولي (فضلا عن أموال المكافأة) حتى يتم استيفاء متطلبات دوران. الإيداع الأولي لا يزال التاجر 8217s المال السماسرة الصادقة لن تكمن المطالبة قبل أن يتم أي تداول في الواقع. كما سيوفر الوسطاء الأفضل خيار إلغاء المكافأة إذا لم يتناسب مع التاجر. وقد حظرت سيسيك، المنظمة الرائدة، مؤخرا استخدام مكافآت مباراة الودائع لأنها تعتقد أنها تؤدي إلى عملاء 8216over-trading8217. مدراء الحسابات . كن حذرا جدا من أي مدير حساب يرغب في التجارة نيابة عن العملاء. هناك تضارب واضح في المصالح على أي حال، ولكن هؤلاء المديرين يشجعون عموما التجار على التجارة مع الأرقام بعيدا عن وسائلهم. يجب أن يكون التجار مترددين جدا في السماح لأي شخص بالتداول نيابة عنهم. وقد أغلق وسيط بارز في الآونة الأخيرة، ويرجع ذلك أساسا إلى الأضرار التي لحقت به 8217 سمعة من خلال هذه العملية من 8220upselling8221. يجب أن يعرف المتداول وسيطه. يبدو واضحا ولكن بعض مشغلي سوف 8216funnel8217 العملاء لسماسرة من اختيارهم، وليس للعملاء. إذا كان التسويق يتطلب عملاء جدد الاشتراك مع وسيط معين، أو أنها اختيار وسيط من قائمة محدودة لا المضي قدما. يجب على التاجر أن يعرف الوسيط الذي يتجهون إليه مع أن يكون على بينة من الطرق المذكورة أعلاه يجب أن تساعد تلك الجديدة على التداول ثنائي لتجنب العلامات التجارية أقل مسؤولية. ومن المؤمل أن يؤدي تحسين التنظيم وزيادة الوعي إلى الحد من هذه الأنواع من الشكاوى. وسيسمح ذلك للثنائيات بالانتقال إلى الاتجاه المالي الرئيسي الذي تطورت فيه. التنظيم يتم تنظيم السماسرة الثنائية عبر عدد من الهيئات. سيسيك تنظيم غالبية السماسرة مقرها في قبرص وإسرائيل. في المملكة المتحدة ومع ذلك، طبقة أقوى من حماية المستهلك هو متاح إذا كان وسيط ينظم من قبل سلطة السلوك المالي (فكا). بعض الشركات أيضا تسجيل مع فكا 8211 ولكن هذا ليس هو نفسه التنظيم، ويمثل تمييزا هاما. وفي الولايات المتحدة، لم ترخص هيئة التجارة الحرة سوى اثنين من الوسطاء للعمل هناك 8211 نادكس و كبوي. كما تخضع بعض الشركات للتنظيم من قبل هيئة مالطة لألعاب، أو جزيرة مان غسك. للحصول على نظرة متعمقة في تاريخ التنظيم داخل الصناعة الثنائية، وقراءة مقالنا: تنظيم الخيارات الثنائية. تاريخ موجز: مفهوم ثنائي، أو 8216digital8217، الخيار موجودة لسنوات عديدة. غير أنها كانت في البداية متاحة فقط لمؤسسات المستثمرين الكبيرة والأفراد والأموال الغنية. تم توفير الخيارات 8216over العداد 8217. وفي عام 2008، سمحت لجنة الأوراق المالية والبورصات الأمريكية بتداول خيارات العائد الثابت هذه عبر البورصة. وقد سمح ذلك لبورصة خيارات مجلس شيكاغو (كبوي) وبورصة الأوراق المالية الأمريكية بتقديم تداول ثنائي على بعض الأصول الأساسية. وفي البداية، كان نطاق الأصول محدودا، وكذلك اختيار الخيارات. كما بدأت نادكس في طرح خيارات تداول في الولايات المتحدة مع تطور السوق. ومع ذلك، ومع ازدياد شعبية، انتقلت الأصول المتداولة خارج فوركس والأسهم وأنواع الخيارات توسعت كذلك. وقد أدت التطورات السريعة في مجال البرمجيات وعولمة التداول بوجه عام إلى ازدهار هذه الخيارات 8217 الرقمية 8217 وتواصل التوسع. والحواجز أمام دخول صانعي السوق المحتملين أو الوسطاء أقل بكثير في القطاع الثنائي. هذا، إلى جانب الازدهار في التداول عبر الإنترنت خلال فترة مماثلة، قد ترك التنظيم متخلفة عن هذه الصناعة. قد لا تطبق اللوائح في مجال واحد في منطقة أخرى، وبالتالي يمكن للشركات القائمة على الإنترنت نقل العمليات إلى المنطقة التي تناسبها. بيد أن هذا أدى إلى عدد من الوسطاء العاملين خارج نطاق القانون. ومع ذلك، من غير المرجح أن تبطئ نمو الثنائيات. البساطة، إلى جانب وضوح المخاطر، يسمح أي شخص تقريبا أن تأخذ وجهة نظر على أصول معينة ولكن إدارة مخاطرها بسهولة أكبر بكثير من أي شكل آخر من أشكال التداول. وفيما يلي بعض من المواضيع التي سئل عنها في معظم الأحيان بشأن التداول ثنائي. نأمل أن هذه الفقرات القصيرة يمكن أن توفر إجابة ولكن إذا لم يكن كذلك، وهناك عدد من الروابط إلى المزيد من المقالات المتعمقة التي سوف تفسر كل مجال الموضوع بمزيد من التفصيل. دليل المبتدئين تداول الخيارات الثنائية هو، وضعت ببساطة شديدة، وتداول 8216binary8217، أو 8216digital8217 الخيارات. هذه الخيارات تدفع عائد ثابت إذا كانت ناجحة (المشار إليها في المال)، ولكن يتم فقدان الاستثمار الكامل، في حالة فقدان التجارة الثنائية. ويمكن تداول كل فئة أصول تقريبا عن طريق الثنائيات، بما في ذلك العملات الأجنبية (الفوركس) والسلع الأساسية مثل أسعار النفط والذهب والأسهم والمؤشرات. تداول ثنائي ثم، هو فعل شراء أو بيع هذه الخيارات. الخيار الثنائي هو وسيلة للتجار للمضاربة على سعر الأصول. انهم يدفعون عائد ثابت إذا كان صحيحا، ولكن يتم فقدان الاستثمار إذا لم تكن كذلك. ويمكن أيضا وصفها بأنها خيار مالي دفع تعويضات ثابتة. هذا كل شيء أو لا شيء الهيكل هو لماذا تسمى الخيارات 8216binary8217. ويشار إليها أحيانا بالخيارات الرقمية أو خيارات العودة الثابتة لنفس السبب. الثنائيات يمكن تداولها 8216over-كونتر 8217 أو المتداولة في البورصة. يتم تداولها بشكل عام عبر مجموعة متنوعة من أوقات انتهاء الصلاحية. ويمكن أن تتراوح هذه الفترة من فترات قصيرة جدا (تصل إلى 30 ثانية) حتى سنة. فهي عالية المخاطر، وارتفاع العائد على الاستثمار مركبة ولن تناسب كل مستثمر. كيفية وضع التجارة الثنائية خطوات لفتح تجارة ثنائية تحديد الأصول الأساسية للتداول على سبيل المثال. سعر الذهب، سعر سهم الفيسبوك أو سعر صرف غبوسد تحديد وقت انتهاء الصلاحية (الوقت الذي ينتهي الخيار). أوقات تختلف من أقل من دقيقة، تصل إلى سنة اتخاذ قرار بشأن حجم التجارة أو الاستثمار تقرر ما إذا كانت القيمة سوف ترتفع أو تسقط يمكن تداول هذه الخيارات عبر الإنترنت. هناك مجموعة من السماسرة، وجميعهم سيوفرون التداول الثنائي عبر مواقع الويب المخصصة وأيضا عبر الأجهزة النقالة عبر التطبيقات. بعض سوف تقدم الثنائيات 8220over العداد 8221، والبعض الآخر عن طريق تبادل 8211 لكنها جميعا تتبع نفس العملية لفتح التجارة. هذه المنصات التداول سوف تختلف إلى حد ما، ولكن العديد سوف تتقاسم الميزات المشتركة. ومعظم هؤلاء الوسطاء سوف تقدم حسابات تجريبية، مما يمكن العملاء الجدد المحتملين لمحاولة الخروج من منصة التداول الخاصة بهم. سيتم تطبيق الخطوات أعلاه في كل وسيط واحد. كما يحصل المتداول أكثر تقدما، ويمكن إضافة المزيد من طبقات من التعقيد، ولكن في جوهرها، وجذب الخيار الثنائي هو في البساطة، وسهولة إدارة المخاطر. من حيث الاستراتيجية، وكيفية التجارة هذا النوع من الخيارات جيدا 8211 فهي استثمار فريد من نوعه. هناك عدد من الاستراتيجيات وأساليب التداول. من التحليل الفني إلى البحوث الأساسية. سوف التاجر التعليم يكون مفتاح أي نجاح في التجارة الثنائية. مقالاتنا نأمل أن توفر كل من التعليم وحتى الآن الأخبار. السماح للمتداولين بتحسين نتائجهم شهريا على أساس شهري. وضع خيارات وخيارات الاتصال وضع وخيارات الدعوة هي ببساطة شروط تعطى لشراء أو بيع خيار. إذا اعتقد المتداول أن الأصول سوف ترتفع من حيث القيمة، فإنها سوف تفتح مكالمة. إذا كانوا يتوقعون أن تنخفض القيمة، فإنهم سيضعون الصفقة. سوف بعض وسطاء التداول ثنائي تغيير أزرار التداول الخاصة بهم كل بضع ثوان، من دعوة ووضع، إلى أسفل وإلى أعلى لتجنب الارتباك. آخرون الاستغناء عن شروط وضع والدعوة كليا. مرة أخرى، فإن معظم منصات التداول تجعل من الواضح للغاية الاتجاه الذي يفتح المتداول خيارا في. استراتيجية التداول ستكون استراتيجيات التداول الثنائية خيارا فرديا. في قسم الاستراتيجيتنا، هناك أفكار قد يرغب التجار في استكشافها. التحليل الفني قد يكون من المفيد لبعض التجار، جنبا إلى جنب مع المخططات والبحوث العمل السعر. وبالمثل قد تكون إدارة الأموال ذات قيمة كبيرة للآخرين. مرة أخرى، هو عملية التعلم للعثور على أفضل الطرق في كل حالة. يجب أن تساعد مقالاتنا. هي الخيارات الثنائية القمار ذلك يعتمد كليا على موقف التاجر. إذا كان التاجر لا يطبق أي استراتيجية أو بحث، فمن المرجح أن يكون أي استثمار يعتمد على حسن الحظ. ومن ناحية أخرى، فإن المتداول الذي يقوم بتجاره مدروسة سيضمن أنها بذلت كل ما في وسعها لتجنب الاعتماد على الحظ. قراءة لدينا نظرة متعمقة في ما إذا كان التداول ثنائي القمار. الإشارات هي تنبيه، أرسلت إلى التجار، وتسليط الضوء على التجارة التي يعتقد مزود ستكون مربحة. ويمكن إرسالها عبر مجموعة من الطرق 8211 البريد الإلكتروني، والرسائل القصيرة أو من موقع إشارة حية. ويرتبط جزء كبير من التسويق غير المسؤول المرتبط بالحيل التي تم إبرازها سابقا بالإشارات. هناك بعض مقدمي جيد جدا هناك أيضا. ومع ذلك، بشكل عام، تعلم كيفية تداول الثنائيات هو عموما طريق أكثر أمانا من استخدام الإشارات للتعويض عن نقص المعرفة التجارية. هل تعمل الإشارات في بعض الأحيان، ولكن نادرا ما تكون في عزلة. وسيقدم بعض مقدمي الخدمات مزيجا من التعليم جنبا إلى جنب مع الإشارات التي تمثل مزيجا جيدا. يجب أن يكون التجار قادرين على تقييم إشارة كاملة قبل أن يتمكنوا من الحكم على نوعية منهم. لذلك تعلم الخيارات الثنائية هو المهم. نحن نستكشف هذه الإشارات في مزيد من العمق في قسم الإشارات لدينا. كما نسلط الضوء على بعض أفضل مقدمي الخدمات. كوبي ترادينغ تجارة النسخ هي قطاع متزايد من الاستثمار. انها تتيح للمستخدمين نسخ الصفقات من الآخرين. تلك النسخ تقرر مقدار الاستثمار، وما إذا كان لنسخ بعض أو كل من الصفقات التي يفتح تاجر معين. كما أن التجار الذين يتم نسخهم يستفيدون، حيث أن الوسيط غالبا ما يكافئ هؤلاء العملاء من خلال العمولة على أساس حجم التجارة التي يولدونها. نسخ التداول (أو 8216social التداول 8217) هو وظيفة مفيدة لأولئك الناس دون الوقت أو المعرفة للتجارة أنفسهم. عند النسخ ومع ذلك، الوقت والجهد قضى العثور على التجار المناسب لمتابعة سوف تدفع أرباح. الروبوتات وتجارة السيارات الروبوتات هي برامج تجارة السيارات أو الخوارزميات التي تسمح للتجار لأتمتة التداول بهم. المستخدمين لديهم خيار كيفية استخدام هذه الروبوتات. في كثير من الأحيان، فهي 8216sold8217 كخدمة إشارة الآلي. هذا النوع من العمليات ومع ذلك، نرى مستوى أعلى من الحيل من المناطق الأخرى. أي شكل من أشكال التداول الآلي يحمل مستوى عال من المخاطر، وكمية كبيرة من 8216due الاجتهاد 8217 مطلوب عند محاولة العثور على خدمة الروبوت الصحيح. وهناك نهج بديل هو أن التجار لبناء الروبوتات الخاصة بهم. وهناك عدد متزايد من السماسرة يوفرون الآن للتجار القدرة على وضع الروبوتات التجارية الخاصة بهم معا، وذلك باستخدام أدوات بسيطة. هذه غالبا ما تسمح مجموعات من إعدادات التحليل الفني، ثم فتح الصفقات عندما يتم استيفاء هذه المعايير. وقد جعلت الخيارات الثنائية الروبوتات المتاحة للجميع. مزيد من المعلومات عن كيفية استخدام برامج الروبوت. دليل تداول الخيارات الثنائية: دليل خطوة بخطوة لتداول الخيارات الثنائية حدد وسيط 8211 استخدم جداول المقارنة للعثور على أفضل وسيط، وإما إيداع الأموال أو فتح حساب تجريبي. حدد الأصول أو السوق للتداول 8211 السلع، الأسهم، الفوركس أو المؤشرات. سعر النفط، أو سعر سهم أبل، على سبيل المثال تحديد وقت انتهاء الصلاحية 8211 خيارات يمكن أن تنتهي في أي مكان بين 30 ثانية تصل إلى سنة. تعيين حجم الصفقة 8211 تذكر 100 من الاستثمار في خطر انقر فوق شراء أو بيع 8211 هل قيمة الأصول ارتفاع أو هبوط تحقق وتأكيد التجارة 8211 معظم الوسطاء تظهر شاشة تأكيد للتجار لضمان التفاصيل صحيحة. وقد وضعت التجارة الثنائية مزايا الثنائيات العديد من مزايا استخدام الثنائيات ترتبط أو مرتبطة. نحن هنا قائمة ببعض الفوائد لاستخدام هذا النوع من الاستثمار ليس فقط للمستثمر التجزئة، ولكن أيضا لصناع السوق أو السماسرة: إدارة المخاطر إدارة المخاطر عند تداول الثنائيات بسيطة جدا. مبلغ التجارة، هو كامل المبلغ الذي هو في خطر. هذا يبسط المخاطر ليس فقط للتاجر، ولكن للوسيط أيضا. ويختلف هذا الوضوح اختلافا جوهريا عن معظم أشكال الاستثمار الأخرى. كل من حجم التجارة وعوائد معروفة قبل أن يتم فتح خيار. مع معظم الاستثمارات الأخرى، لا الرقم المطلق. في حين أن التجار قد نشر وقف الخسارة أو تقنية تخفيف المخاطر الأخرى لا شيء يعرض المخاطر والمكافأة ببساطة كخيار دفع تعويضات ثابتة. تكاليف الإدارة توفر اليقين من المخاطر والمكافأة أساسا صلبا للوسطاء للعمل، وإدارة مركزهم العام. هذا يسمح لهم لخلق عمليات لحماية أنفسهم أكثر، وذلك باستخدام مزود السيولة أو التحوط مواقفهم الخاصة. ولكن الميزة الحقيقية هي أن المستويات الدقيقة للمخاطر تجعل التكاليف الباهظة لمنازل المقاصة غير ضرورية. هذه التكلفة، ناهيك عن الضغط التنظيمي المرتبطة بها، هي أقل من قضية للوسطاء ثنائي. غير أن هذا الحاجز المنخفض أمام الدخول هو سيف ذو حدين. وتمكن الوسطاء من الإعداد والتشغيل مع رقابة تنظيمية ضئيلة أو معدومة، مما جذب بعض المشغلين المشكوك فيهم. الرافعة المالية غير متوفرة بشكل عام مع التداول الثنائي. وهذا يفيد الوسيط مرة أخرى، لأنه يعني أن جميع الصفقات يجب أن يتم تداولها بالكامل قبل أن يمكن فتحها. وبعبارة أخرى، لا يمكن لأي متداول أن يتخلف عن التداول. حيث يعمل المتداول مع الرافعة المالية، يتم تداولها بشكل فعال على الائتمان. إذا كانت الأمور تسوء، هناك خطر حقيقي من عدم دفع الوسيط. ومع ذلك، من الصحيح أيضا أن عدم وجود نفوذ يفيد التجار أيضا. في حين أن البعض سوف يجادل بأنه يقيد قدرتها على الربح. العديد من المستثمرين التجزئة يمكن أن تفقد مبالغ كبيرة عن غير قصد من خلال استخدام الرافعة المالية. خيار التاجر يمكن إضافة طبقات التعقيد إلى خيار العوائد الثابتة القياسية، التي تسمح باستخدامها في مجموعة من الطرق. من خيار سلم، إلى الصفقات الحدود أو أكثر تقدما 8216nesting8217 من الخيارات الثنائية يمكن استخدامها في مجموعة كبيرة من الطرق. حيث يريد المتداول أن يتخذ موقفا على أصول أساسية معينة، فإن التجارة الثنائية توفر أعلى مستوى من المرونة. حتى أنها توفر آلية للمضاربة على السوق المتبقية شقة، أو أن تأخذ وجهة نظر ليس على القيمة نفسها ولكن حجم التجارة من الأصول الأساسية. بعض هذه الفوائد قد فقدت في النقاش أو ببساطة تغمرها مجموعة من المعلومات الخاطئة، سنوبيري المالية، والممارسات غير الشريفة من بعض المشغلين. أيا من هذه العوامل يجب أن تلم السيارة نفسها، التي لا تزال سليمة، عالية المخاطر عالية العائد المنتج المالي. تداول الخيارات الثنائية هو أداة استثمار عالية المخاطر. قد لا تكون مناسبة لكل مستثمر. الخيارات الثنائية في استخدام هذا الموقع تعتبر أنك قد قرأت ووافقت على الشروط والأحكام التالية: تنطبق المصطلحات التالية على هذه الشروط والأحكام، بيان الخصوصية وإخلاء المسؤولية إشعار وأية أو جميع الاتفاقات: العميل، أنت و يشير لك، الشخص الذي الوصول إلى هذا الموقع وقبول شروط الشركة. الشركة، أنفسنا، نحن ونحن، يشير إلى شركتنا. الطرف، الأطراف، أو لنا، يشير إلى كل من العميل وأنفسنا، أو إما العميل أو أنفسنا. جميع المصطلحات تشير إلى العرض والقبول والنظر في الدفع اللازم لإجراء عملية مساعدتنا للعميل في أنسب طريقة، سواء من خلال اجتماعات رسمية لفترة محددة، أو أي وسيلة أخرى، لغرض صريح من تلبية يحتاج العملاء فيما يتعلق بتوفير منتجات الخدمات المذكورة للشركة، وفقا للقانون الدولي الساري ووفقا له. أي استخدام للمصطلحات المذكورة أعلاه أو كلمات أخرى في المفرد، الجمع، والرسملة و هيش هي أو أنها، تؤخذ على أنها قابلة للتبديل، وبالتالي كما يشير إلى نفسه. ونحن ملتزمون بحماية خصوصيتك. الموظفين المصرح لهم داخل الشركة على أساس الحاجة إلى معرفة فقط استخدام أي معلومات تم جمعها من العملاء الأفراد. نحن نراجع باستمرار أنظمتنا وبياناتنا لضمان أفضل خدمة ممكنة لعملائنا. وقد أنشأ البرلمان جرائم محددة لاتخاذ إجراءات غير مصرح بها ضد نظم البيانات والبيانات الحاسوبية. وسوف نحقق في أي إجراءات من هذا القبيل بهدف مقاضاة وأداء الإجراءات المدنية لاسترداد الأضرار التي لحقت بالمسؤولين عنها. نحن مسجلون بموجب قانون حماية البيانات لعام 1998 وعلى هذا النحو، قد يتم تمرير أي معلومات تتعلق بالعميل وسجلات العميل الخاصة بهم إلى أطراف ثالثة. ومع ذلك، تعتبر سجلات العميل سرية، وبالتالي لن يتم الكشف عنها إلى أي طرف ثالث، باستثناء مغناطيس المالية. إذا كان مطلوبا قانونا أن تفعل ذلك للسلطات المختصة. لن نقوم ببيع أو مشاركة أو تأجير معلوماتك الشخصية إلى أي طرف ثالث أو استخدام عنوان بريدك الإلكتروني للبريد غير المرغوب فيه. أي رسائل البريد الإلكتروني المرسلة من قبل هذه الشركة ستكون فقط في اتصال مع توفير الخدمات والمنتجات المتفق عليها. إخلاء المسؤولية الاستثناءات والقيود يتم توفير المعلومات على هذا الموقع على أساس. إلى أقصى حد يسمح به القانون، فإن هذه الشركة: تستثني جميع الإقرارات والضمانات المتعلقة بهذا الموقع ومحتوياته أو التي يمكن أو تقدمها من قبل أي من الشركات التابعة أو أي طرف ثالث، بما في ذلك ما يتعلق بأي أخطاء أو سهو في هذا الموقع و تستثني جميع مسؤوليات الأضرار الناشئة عن أو فيما يتعلق باستخدامك لهذا الموقع. ويشمل ذلك، على سبيل المثال لا الحصر، الخسارة المباشرة أو فقدان الأعمال أو الأرباح (سواء كان أو لم يكن فقدان هذه الأرباح متوقعا، نشأ في السياق العادي للأشياء أو كنت قد نصحت هذه الشركة من احتمال حدوث هذه الخسارة المحتملة)، والضرر الناجم عن إلى جهاز الكمبيوتر، وبرامج الكمبيوتر، والأنظمة والبرامج والبيانات الخاصة بك أو أي أضرار مباشرة أو غير مباشرة أو تبعية أو عرضية أخرى. فينانس لا تستبعد ماغنيتس المسؤولية عن الوفاة أو الإصابة الشخصية الناجمة عن إهمالها. تنطبق الاستثناءات والقيود المذكورة أعلاه فقط على المدى الذي يسمح به القانون. لا يتأثر أي من حقوقك القانونية كمستهلك. نحن نستخدم عناوين إب لتحليل الاتجاهات وإدارة الموقع وتتبع حركة المستخدمين وجمع المعلومات الديموغرافية الواسعة للاستخدام الإجمالي. لا يتم ربط عناوين إب بالمعلومات الشخصية. بالإضافة إلى ذلك، بالنسبة لإدارة الأنظمة والكشف عن أنماط الاستخدام وأغراض تحري الخلل وإصلاحه، فإن خوادم الويب تسجل معلومات الدخول القياسية تلقائيا بما في ذلك نوع المتصفح، ورسائل الوصول إلى الوقت، وعنوان ورل المطلوب، وعنوان ورل للإحالة. لا تتم مشاركة هذه المعلومات مع أطراف ثالثة ويتم استخدامها فقط في هذه الشركة على أساس الحاجة إلى المعرفة. لن يتم استخدام أي معلومات يمكن التعرف عليها بشكل فردي تتعلق بهذه البيانات بأي طريقة مختلفة عن تلك المذكورة أعلاه دون الحصول على إذن صريح منك. مثل معظم المواقع على شبكة الإنترنت التفاعلية هذا موقع الشركة أو إيسب يستخدم ملفات تعريف الارتباط لتمكيننا من استرداد تفاصيل المستخدم لكل زيارة. وتستخدم الكوكيز في بعض مناطق موقعنا لتمكين وظائف هذه المنطقة وسهولة الاستخدام لأولئك الناس الذين يزورون. روابط إلى هذا الموقع لا يجوز لك إنشاء رابط إلى أي صفحة من صفحات هذا الموقع دون الحصول على موافقة كتابية مسبقة. إذا قمت بإنشاء رابط إلى صفحة من هذا الموقع يمكنك القيام بذلك على مسؤوليتك الخاصة والاستثناءات والقيود المنصوص عليها أعلاه سوف تنطبق على استخدامك لهذا الموقع عن طريق الربط به. روابط من هذا الموقع نحن لا نراقب أو نراجع محتوى مواقع الأطراف الأخرى التي ترتبط بها من هذا الموقع. إن الآراء المعرب عنها أو المواد التي تظهر على مثل هذه المواقع ليست بالضرورة مشتركة أو معتمدة من قبلنا ولا ينبغي اعتبارها ناشر هذه الآراء أو المواد. يرجى العلم بأننا غير مسؤولين عن ممارسات الخصوصية أو المحتوى الخاص بهذه المواقع. ونحن نشجع المستخدمين على أن يكونوا على علم عندما يغادرون موقعنا أمبير لقراءة بيانات الخصوصية من هذه المواقع. يجب عليك تقييم أمن وجدارة أي موقع آخر متصل بهذا الموقع أو الوصول إليه من خلال هذا الموقع بنفسك، قبل الكشف عن أي معلومات شخصية لهم. هذه الشركة لن تقبل أي مسؤولية عن أي خسارة أو ضرر بأي شكل من الأشكال، مهما كان سببها، الناتجة عن الكشف الخاص بك إلى أطراف ثالثة من المعلومات الشخصية. حقوق الطبع والنشر وحقوق الملكية الفكرية الأخرى ذات الصلة موجودة على جميع النصوص المتعلقة بخدمات الشركة والمحتوى الكامل لهذا الموقع. كل الحقوق محفوظة. جميع المواد الواردة في هذا الموقع محمية بموجب قانون حقوق الطبع والنشر في الولايات المتحدة ولا يجوز نسخها أو توزيعها أو نقلها أو عرضها أو نشرها أو بثها دون الحصول على إذن كتابي مسبق من مجلة ماغنيس ماغنيتس. لا يجوز لك تغيير أو إزالة أي علامة تجارية أو حقوق طبع ونشر أو إشعار آخر من نسخ المحتوى. جميع المعلومات في هذه الصفحة هي عرضة للتغيير. استخدام هذا الموقع يشكل قبول اتفاق المستخدم. الرجاء الإطلاع على سياسة الخصوصية وإخلاء المسؤولية القانونية. تداول العملات الأجنبية على الهامش يحمل درجة عالية من المخاطر وقد لا تكون مناسبة لجميع المستثمرين. درجة عالية من الرافعة المالية يمكن أن تعمل ضدك وكذلك بالنسبة لك. قبل اتخاذ قرار لتداول العملات الأجنبية يجب عليك النظر بعناية أهدافك الاستثمارية، ومستوى الخبرة والشهية المخاطر. هناك احتمال أن تتمكن من الحفاظ على فقدان بعض أو كل من الاستثمار الأولي الخاص بك، وبالتالي يجب أن لا تستثمر المال الذي لا يمكن أن تخسره. يجب أن تكون على علم بجميع المخاطر المرتبطة بتداول العملات الأجنبية وطلب المشورة من مستشار مالي مستقل إذا كان لديك أي شكوك. الآراء التي أعرب عنها في ماغنيتس المالية هي تلك من المؤلفين الفردية ولا تمثل بالضرورة رأي شركة فث أو إدارتها. فينانس ماغناتس لم يتحقق من دقة أو أساس - في الواقع من أي مطالبة أو بيان أدلى به أي مؤلف مستقل: قد تحدث أخطاء وسهو. أي آراء أو أخبار أو أبحاث أو تحاليل أو أسعار أو معلومات أخرى تحتوي على هذا الموقع، من قبل ماغنيتس المالية، موظفيها أو الشركاء أو المساهمين، يتم تقديمها كتعليق السوق العام ولا تشكل المشورة الاستثمارية. لن تتحمل شركة ماغنيتس المسؤولية عن أي خسارة أو ضرر، بما في ذلك على سبيل المثال لا الحصر، أي خسارة في الأرباح، والتي قد تنشأ بشكل مباشر أو غير مباشر من استخدام هذه المعلومات أو الاعتماد عليها. لا يتحمل أي من الطرفين المسؤولية تجاه أي إخفاق في أداء أي التزام بموجب أي اتفاق يكون نتيجة لحدث خارج عن سيطرة هذا الطرف بما في ذلك على سبيل المثال لا الحصر أي قانون من أعمال الله والإرهاب والحرب والتمرد السياسي والتمرد وأعمال الشغب أو الاضطرابات المدنية أو أعمال السلطة المدنية أو العسكرية أو الانتفاضة أو الزلزال أو الفيضانات أو أي حالة طبيعية أو إنسانية أخرى خارجة عن إرادتنا، مما يؤدي إلى إبرام اتفاق أو عقد مبرم، ولا يمكن توقعه على نحو معقول. ويتعين على أي طرف يتأثر بهذا الحدث إبلاغ الطرف الآخر فورا وبذل جميع الجهود المعقولة للامتثال لبنود وشروط أي اتفاقية واردة في هذه الوثيقة. عدم قيام أي من الطرفين بالإصرار على الأداء الصارم لأي حكم من أحكام هذه الاتفاقية أو أي اتفاق أو عدم قيام أي من الطرفين بممارسة أي حق أو تعويض يحق له بموجبه أو يحق له بموجبه ألا يشكل تنازلا عنه ولا يجوز أن يسبب تخفيض الالتزامات بموجب هذا الاتفاق أو أي اتفاق. ولا يسري أي تنازل عن أي من أحكام هذا الاتفاق أو أي اتفاق ما لم ينص صراحة على أن يكون ذلك وموقعا من الطرفين. إشعار بالتغييرات تحتفظ الشركة بالحق في تغيير هذه الشروط من حين لآخر حسب ما يراه مناسبا، وسيعني استمرار استخدامك للموقع قبولك لأي تعديل لهذه الشروط. إذا كانت هناك أية تغييرات في سياسة الخصوصية، فسوف نعلن أن هذه التغييرات تم إجراؤها على صفحتنا الرئيسية وعلى الصفحات الرئيسية الأخرى على موقعنا. إذا كانت هناك أي تغييرات في كيفية استخدامنا لعملائنا في الموقع معلومات التعريف الشخصية، سيتم إرسال إشعار بالبريد الإلكتروني أو البريد البريدي للمتأثرين بهذا التغيير. سيتم نشر أي تغييرات على سياسة الخصوصية على موقعنا على الويب قبل 30 يوما من حدوث هذه التغييرات. لذلك ننصحك بإعادة قراءة هذا البيان بشكل منتظم. هذه الشروط والأحكام تشكل جزءا من الاتفاقية بين العميل وأنفسنا. إن دخولك إلى هذا الموقع الإلكتروني والتعهد بحجز أو اتفاقية يشير إلى تفهمك واتفاقك وقبولك وإشعار إخلاء المسؤولية والشروط والأحكام الكاملة الواردة في هذه الوثيقة. حقوقك القانونية القانونية لا تتأثر. فينانس ماغنيتس 2018 جميع الحقوق محفوظة كيف تعد لائحة الخيارات الثنائية المتغيرة في المملكة المتحدة

أجهزة تكبير الصوت الفرعية كورسو - الفوركس تداول - 2-12 -

،،. ،، ..،. ،،. ،،،،. .،.،. ،. . 03 2018 11 2018 11 2018 19 2018 04 2018 - 0. 90 90 -. - -2 -.-،،. . 100 100 ،، - كان أطلس شروجد أكبر، أجمل كتاب وعشر سنوات كان معيار بلدي. that39s كم من الوقت استغرق لكتابة متقدمة كرة المضرب. تتمة لبلدي أفضل بيع كتاب كامل من راكتبال التي وعدت، قبل أربعين عاما، وهذا تتمة. It39s 825 صفحة ويغطي كل جانب من جوانب اللعبة من حذاء رياضة إلى فصوص الجبهي للاعبين المفتوحة إلى برو. كان العمل من الحب لمدة 1000 ساعة في مربع الأمازون عرق الانترنت لمدة 11 ساعة في اليوم، سبعة أيام في الأسبوع خلال الأشهر الثلاثة الماضية، على رأس السابق ألف أو نحو ذلك ساعات كتابة أقسام سابقة. هناك أكثر من 400 صور بما في ذلك السكتات الدماغية متتابعة ويخدم. مقابلات شخصية مع 90 من أحدث 30 بطل العالم. استئصال الزائدة الدودية الكامل. قررت أن أسقط اللقب، و تتغاضى مثل أطلس، بسبب عدم كفاءة مجتمع كرة المضرب غير المستحق. وهم أيضا قراء صفحات شفهية وليس مطبوعة. تم إنجاز هدفي في كتابة الكتاب وإدراجه في الأمازون. وهناك مجموعة أخرى من عيون ميامي التي قرأت نسخة واحدة في الوجود وقال، 39It39s جيدة جدا، ولكن وقتا طويلا للعقلية كرة المضرب .39 I39ll إعطاء نسخة واحدة، مثل ديوجين، لأول لاعب يستحق أن ألتقي. أنا حجبه من الجمهور، وإذا كنت تريد أن تعرف لماذا قراءة أطلس شروجد. يمكننا أن نتوقع قريبا أن نسمع مومبو حول كيف إذا كان يناير هو أسفل السوق من المرجح أن يكون لأسفل للسنة وآخرون. كم مرة يجب أن يفشل هذا قبل أن يفقد تأثيره. كتب روكي همبرت: لا تتردد في الاتصال بهذا كوتومبوكوت 8212 ولكن هناك مئات الملايين، إن لم يكن المليارات، من مواقف سوق الأسهم الأمريكية التي ستخرج إذا كان السوق يغلق اليوم تحت مستوى 1960-2000. أنا لا أتوقع اليوم 39s واحتمال سقوط 40 نقطة سبو هو دائما منخفضة جدا (وبالتالي الرهان على هذه النتيجة لديها احتمالات رديئة). ومع ذلك، وسوف نتوقع بثقة أنه يجب أن هذه كوتستوبسكوت الحصول على أثار، وسوف فرك عينيك الأسبوع المقبل بأسعار أقل بكثير سترى. ويرى هيرنان أفيلا: ما حدث مع الفكرة التي دعوت إليها في كانون الأول / ديسمبر الماضي حول حكمة الرجل العادي، التي صببت 36.5 مليار دولار في صناديق الأسهم في أسبوع عيد الميلاد، مسجلا أكبر تدفقات في السوق حيث ارتفعت الأسهم الأمريكية إلى مستويات قياسية. هل تلك المواقف التي تتطلع إلى بيع اليوم تنوير لنا من فضلك. كتب روكي همبرت: سوف مكوموت كوتكومون تفعل على ما يرام. It39s المهنيين الذين سيتم بيعها على أساس أشياء من هذا القبيل. يكتب أنطون جونسون: يتساءل عن تعزيز ميبان فابر الذاتي وتعزيز عمله إتف أطلقت مؤخرا، وجدت هذه الكتلة القيمة: كامبريا القيمة العالمية إتف (غفال) العودة منذ التأسيس (3-12-2018 حتى 1-28-2018) هو 39TH تسعى كامبريا غلوبال فالو إتف إلى تحقيق نتائج استثمارية تتوافق بشكل وثيق مع أداء األسعار واألداء، قبل الرسوم والمصروفات، من مؤشر كامبريا للقيمة العالمية. 8230 يفصل المؤشر التالي أعلى 25 دولة من هذه البلدان وفقا لمقاييس كامبريريا الخاصة بالتقييم طويل األمد. ثم يقوم المؤشر بفحص الأسهم ذات رأس المال السوقي الذي يزيد عن 200 مليون سهم. ويتألف المؤشر من ما يقرب من 100 شركة. 39 يكتب مجهول: ميب فابر يحب النظر في المتوسطات المتحركة لمدة 12 شهرا المحسوبة في نهاية الشهر. ل سامب لدينا: أسبوعيا، في بليث، كا المدرسة الثانوية من خلال 2000s، نسخة المحمومة من هذا الانفجار عبر الاتصال الداخلي المدرسة للجميع لسماع استدعائي لاخماد حريق آخر في الفصل الدراسي شديد الاضطراب العاطفي في الجزء الخلفي من الحرم الجامعي بين الأقلام 4-H من الخنازير والماعز والأبقار وقناة الري واسعة النطاق. مرة واحدة هناك، في غرفة اسبرطة سيد، مجموعة صغيرة من ثمانية الشباب الناشطين قال كيف كانوا يتصفحون أو هاجموا الفرار الفرعي من المدخل في ذلك الثاني. أود أن أجيب، 39Everyone في وادي ساند حيث أعيش، والجميع في جميع أنحاء سفري، يطير قبالة مقبض مرة واحدة في حين. الحيلة هي تحديد السبب وتصحيحه. وفي نفس الوقت، كنت أعمل كطرف مضرب (39). ولحسن الحظ، كما هو الحال في كرة المضرب حيث أطيت غطاءي إلى المحكمة، وكان قبل 3-0 قبل تقديم الخدمة الأولى، كانت سمعتي سبقتني في هذه الفصول الدراسية. في بعض الأحيان أعتقد أن الطلاب شغب لاستدعاء لي، كما نزلاء السجن مرحلة معارك الطعام لكسر الروتين. الأطفال سطعوا للكشف عن الأسباب الغريبة لسوء سلوكهم التي تسببت في نفيهم لهذه الطبقة محرجا. أولا، قلت لهم، 39We aren39t الذهاب إلى استخدام مصطلح سيد هنا. تساهم التصنيفات في إنشاء هويات. يا رفاق هي طبيعية مثل لي وجيران بلدي في وادي الرمال. بعد ذلك، والهدف هو تعميم لكم مرة أخرى إلى الطبقات العادية. ثالثا، إذا you39re هنا في النظام الخاص بك parent39s لإنشاء محفظة من كونها أحمق من أجل الحصول على الرعاية الاجتماعية لبقية حياتك، والتفكير مرة أخرى. هناك خط طويل من الطلاب الراغبين في استبدالك في هذه الفئة. رابعا، طرقي غير تقليدية ولكنها فعالة. I39m ليس عالما نفسيا مدرسيا، ولكن إذا قمت بعملك، فإن I39ll يكافئ كل درس يومي مع قصة ذات صلة من الطريق .39 كانت أعذارهم صحيحة بشكل سيء. بعضهم آخذ في الارتفاع مع البواب في الخامسة صباحا دون وجبة الإفطار لركوب حافلة لمدة ساعة من مزرعة نائية إلى المدرسة، ووصلت غضب. أو، شرب والديهم وضربهم في الليلة السابقة. وكان الزوجان قلقين من أن يكون متناغما بعد المدرسة، وأظهرت يفرز 10 بت لقم الحفر انزلق في كتابهم العمود الفقري. وكان أحد البيتينات الخوف من الضياع غير معروف. وكان آخر عسر القراءة. رسم آخر أظافره الأرجواني وتحدث مع ليسب للاهتمام. كانت هذه الحالات صعبة الحظ الحرم الجامعي مقطوع في فصل واحد، وفرصتهم الأخيرة قبل الطرد، وكنت أملهم الأخير. عندما يكون لديك شخص أكثر من برميل مثل هذا، الحياة هي في الواقع سهلة جدا. أنا خافت أضواء الفلورسنت القاسية، وفعلنا القفز الرافعات، والجلوس المنبثقة و بوشوبس لمدة عشرين دقيقة. ثم رفضت الحرارة لتبريد الغرفة، والطائرات لا العامة لتهدئة الركاب. فتحت مهمة اليوم من المعلم الدائم سيد، السيدة الرائعة I39ll دعوة السيدة ليبدا، الذي كان في كثير من الأحيان بعيدا في اجتماعات العمل، وهكذا سقطت واجبها على لي. كانت موهوبة ورعاية، طبيب البحرية السابق، شرطي، وتسليم المفتاح. بعد أن تم عملهم، ومكافأة قصة المغامرة، كتبت تقريرا مفصلا حول ما حدث وتطور كل طالب في الكتابة المرآة. الكتابة المرئية يقرأ من اليمين إلى اليسار، وفي وقت مبكر في حياتي الفرعية الفرعية مدير اتصل بي في مكتبه لشرح لماذا العديد من الطلاب، وخاصة الرياضيين، ورأيت قراءة نصوص رأسا على عقب. كان لديه صورة ملاكمة لنفسه على الحائط من شبابه، وألقيت خطاف غادر وهمية في فكه، في حين برر أنه لو كان قد قرأ الطباعة تتدفق من اليمين إلى اليسار ثم عينيه سيكون أسرع أن اشتعلت جاب ، وكذلك الفراشة القادمة، سيارة أو الكرة. بعد أن قدمت تقارير الصف إلى السيدة ليبدا ضربة، وفي يوم من الأيام خاطبتني، 39 طالبا مثلك، وهكذا أنا أراكم كنسخة من نفسي. 39 بدأنا في التعارف، ، وغالبا ما ينام في وقت متأخر بعد استدعاء المدرسة لفرعي، حتى أتمكن من الحصول على مكالمة على نفس الهاتف لتقديم تقرير عن العمل. تم تحقيق الأهداف بنجاح، توقف الطلاب مخلب خلفية قبالة الجدران، كانت ودية إلى شريف الزائر، لا مزيد من محاولات الانتحار، والهدف الرئيسي لتعميم الطلاب العودة إلى الفصول الدراسية العادية. وكان الدرس الأكثر قيمة الذي نقلته إلى بلدي كراهية الأجانب في بلدة صغيرة، أمريكا. 39That39s طبيعية كما تذهب في بلدة صغيرة، America39. شرحنا لكل شيء، 39 كنا هنا مائة سنة، وكنا نفعل أشياء بهذه الطريقة مائة عام .39 ومن هنا، فإن شعار الدولة، 39 جزء من مجموعة، يأخذ ويأمر الأوامر، يطيع .39 الحل، الطلاب، هو على المضي قدما في الصبر من خلال الشباب الخاص بك، ومن ثم ضرب إلى آفاق جديدة. يمكنك دائما اتخاذ الطريق للضرب مرة أخرى إلى بليث. أخذت السيدة ليبدا أخيرا وظيفة في مكان آخر، وكنت قد استأجرت من قبل مقاطعة ريفرسايد ليحل محل بدوام كامل. كان هناك دفعة كبيرة في الراتب إلى 40،000 مع كامل الطبية. بدأت التبرع مجهول 15 من راتبي العودة إلى وجبات الغداء الطلابية، والكتب الجيدة، وفواتير الطبيب تلميذ، والشطرنج للمكتبة. كان لدي فكرة عظيمة من طار واحد على عش Cuckoo39s في المريض الذي ماكموري يتنكر كطبيب نفساني يأخذ المرضى الآخرين على نزهات من المستشفى. الحصول على إذن من المدير، الذي كان الآن بلدي بال من درس الملاكمة، أخذت الطبقات سيد على الرحلات التعليمية إلى مكتبة المدينة، والسجن، صالة البولينغ، والطبيعة يمشي على طول الحفرة الري التي منعت تخرجهم إلى العالم الحقيقي . في الأشهر المقبلة، كان باب الفصول الدراسية بلدي دائرا مثل باروم ليلة السبت مع الطلاب الجدد الذين يصلون في أقرب وقت تعميم. سرعان ما نفدت القائمة الخلفية، وتضاءلت الطبقة لثلاثة طلاب. يوم واحد، بعد أن كان المعلم بدوام كامل سيد لمدة ستة أشهر، دعيت خلال الفصل الدراسي من قبل إدارة مدرسة ريفرسايد. مدير أبلغ بأدب، 39I نرى أنك قد تعميم جميع الطلاب تقريبا العودة إلى الفصول الدراسية العادية. تهانينا. نحن نتركك تذهب. 39 ضحكت، وتنظيف المكتب. كنت قد عملت نفسي من وظيفة الدرس هو don39t يكون ربط مربع في حفرة مستديرة دون توقع العواقب. استمع الدعوة الداخلية الخاصة بك، ولكن كن مستعدا للمضي قدما. أنا ضربت درب إلى مغامرة العالم لديك المزيد من القصص ليقول إلى الطبقة التالية. 1 - متوسط ​​العائدات على الأسهم هو اختيار عدد عشوائيا 7 - ولكن إذا كانت الأعمال التجارية غير مضبوطة والتي قد تصبح 10 وإذا اختفت ضرائب المبيعات وانخفضت إلى النتيجة النهائية، فقد يصبح ذلك 14. وعلى مدى خمسين عاما، يعاد استثمار الفرق سيكون أكثر من 20X المزيد من رأس المال ويمكننا جميعا أن تأخذ الأمور سهلة. 2. الحكومة البريطانية تحب أن تأخذ الدفعات على حساب من غير دافعي الضرائب باي، وبالتالي أخذ المدفوعات المسبقة على الضرائب المستحقة قبل نهاية العام. وبتكلفة 2 من رأس المال وموارد رأس المال العامل الهائل، يبدو هذا سلوكا غير مرغوب فيه إلى حد ما. ما لم يكن قد لوحظ من قبل الحكومة أن معظم الشركات الصغيرة تفشل تحت عبء ضخم من الضرائب والأنظمة المحلية والأوروبية، ورسوم الاستيراد والتصدير، وما إلى ذلك ومثل وسيط الفوركس التجزئة الذي يعرف جيدا كل ما له أمب أمبير با العملاء في نهاية المطاف تصفية تحت فيغ وحشي، في جميع الحالات نوفاتس العميل ضمانات في أقرب وقت ممكن. 3 - ولوحظ أن حفنة من الأغنياء يسيطرون على الثروة التي يتمتع بها المليارات من الفقراء. ولكن معظم أفقر الناس في العالم ليس لديهم مدخرات على الإطلاق، وبالتالي إذا قمت بتلخيص مجموعة جزئية بقيمها المختارة لتكون قريبة جدا من الصفر ومقارنتها مع مجموعة أخرى من الأرقام ال 39، لن ترى بوضوح عدم مساواة كبير. هل يمكن القول تماما كما أن مواطن الولايات المتحدة العادية مع 1،000 من المدخرات لديها ألف مرة ثروة مثل شخص في الكونغو الذي ينزل إلى آخر دولار له، وتقديم هذا أيضا كونه الجنين والجشع. .4 يتم احتساب الثروة ال 139 للفرد الواحد كمتوسط ​​متوسط ​​رأس المال، حيث يبلغ متوسط ​​القيمة الصافية للفرد الواحد في الولايات المتحدة حوالي 15-20 م. ولكن كل شخص مائة تقابله ليس لديه ميزانية عمومية قريبة من ذلك، حيث أن المتوسط ​​والمتوسط ​​مختلفان جدا. وبالتالي، فإن وسائل الإعلام تخلق تصورا للحالة ال 139 التي لا علاقة لها بالواقع. 5 - ومن العار العظيم أن هناك الكثير من الفقراء في العالم. ولكن ما هي الأسواق الحرة المطروحة في هذا الصدد من خلال قانون السلطة لتوزيع الثروة، عادل بيل غيتس 39 و وارن بوفيه 39s الثروة وحدها يجب أن تمثل نسبة كبيرة من كوتس 1squot خبأ. ويحدث ذلك أن هذان الشخصان قد تبرعا أو خصصا للمستقبل، ما يقرب من 100 من وفوراتهم المتراكمة إلى القضايا الخيرية. بيل غيتس هو واحد من رجال الأعمال الأكثر إنجازا على هذا الكوكب، وقد ألقى له العمل والفكر والمهارات التنظيمية في مجانا. في المقابل، لو تم فرض ضريبة عليهم إلى أقصى حد ممكن على الطريق، هل من المعقول توقع أن تبدد أموالهم عبر مجموعة متنوعة من الإدارات الحكومية ذات الكفاءة المشكوك فيها 7. في الواقع، إذا كانت السيطرة 1kot حول 20tr من الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية 39s 60tr من والثروة، والبوفيت والبوابات هي التعبئة 150bn بينهما، أن 39s بالفعل 0.75 من العجين يجري مناقشتها الساخنة التي هي في الواقع مخصصة للأغراض الخيرية. 8. إذا استمر أحد هذه الحسابات على طول شجرة الثروة، باستثناء رأس المال الذي تم التعهد به لأغراض خيرية أو إعادة استثمارها في رأس المال الثابت من أجل خلق مستويات معيشة أفضل للسكان (شيء مخفي باستمرار في التكيف الهائل لإحصاءات التضخم )، ما هي النسبة المئوية من ثروتهم التي تستهلكها ميغاريتش في الواقع 9. هل ميغاريتش لا تنفق في الواقع معظم حياتهم تتنافس على جدولها الترتيب على موقع فوربس، تحميل كل منها يستحق حوالي 0.001 سنتا يجب أن لا نكون ممتنين ل وهذا الخداع الذاتي على هم وزوجاتهم بلا شك بكثافة البلاستيك الجراح والصديقات بيهالفس 10. هذه الملاحظات قد تكون أو لم تكن قد برعاية الأخوة كوخ. كتب غاري روجان: يبدو أن هناك جانبان على الأقل لثروة الثروة المتباينة: (أ) إلى أي درجة تسيطر كوتيليتكوت على خلق ثروة جديدة من خلال وسائل غير قانونية غير معنوية (ب) إلى أي درجة يمكن أن يكون ذكي جدا من التصرف كوتوبيركوت قادرة على كسب المزيد من البقية لمجرد أنها أكثر ملاءمة للازدهار في اقتصاد اليوم. وعادة ما تكون الغالبية العظمى من أولئك الذين يتحدثون عن هذا الموضوع من عدم المساواة غير المتكافئة لديهم جدول أعمال للاستفادة من خطاب إعادة توزيع الثروة ويرغبون في إسناد التفاوت في الثروة إلى وجود بسيط للرأسمالية، وليس لديهم نية لحل المشكلة المشكلة أو حتى عناية خلاف ذلك. حسنا، كل شيء يذهب إلى الجحيم. روسيا لا تزال مشكلة، يبدو أن اليونان تتحول إلى حصان طروادة، و ك الأوروبية، إذا أكدت من قبل البيانات، سيتم الوقود إلى النار وإلا يضيع المال. فالتقييم الكمي الحقيقي لأوروبا سيكون اتحادا ماليا، ليس من الواضح أي مذهب ماسي يريد أن يستمر في ركل العلبة رغم كل ما يحدث. فهي تدمر، من الناحية الهيكلية والصناعية، الدول الأوروبية. وأعتقد أن اليورو يجب أن يسفر مقابل 23 شهرا القادمة إذا سوف تتبع البيانات الإيجابية، لذلك أتوقع ما حدث من 15gen (مطرقة على المؤشرات الأوروبية). وإلا ستستمر في التعادل، 0.800.75 يورو أسوأ حالة. وأعتقد أن الكمثرى قد حان في الولايات المتحدة، لذلك ربما بيع قمم ووضعها في الخزانة في انتظار الجزء الثاني من السنة عندما مناسبات أفضل هي إمكانية. النفط سوف يرتفع في الجزء الثاني من عام 2018 (إن لم يكن من قبل). أعتقد أن قرار الماكرو أسرع من الواقع، ولكن ليس هناك ما هو أسوأ من ضخ المال في اقتصاد غير قادر على التعافي بسبب إدارته من قبل الدول الانتهازية (بوليتيشيانبوريوكراتس) غير مستعدة للتعاون. ومن الناحية الهيكلية، لن يكون لتيسير الجودة أي تحسن. ليس من المنطقي القيام بالتقشف في حين ينهار النظام الصناعي في الاتحاد الأوروبي ومن ثم بعد ست سنوات، أدركوا الخطأ، في محاولة لإحياء ثروات الطباعة الاقتصاد. ويبدو أن نظام الدول المثقلة بالدول ثم إدارتها على نحو أفضل، وهو ما يحببه صندوق النقد الدولي، أصبح متأصلا في أوروبا. كانت جدتي تقول، كان أفضل عندما كان أسوأ، ولم نكن على علم بذلك، لكنها كانت على حق. ويدث 402 height268 عثرت مؤخرا على عمل بيتر تورشين، عالم الأحياء التطوري، الذي يحاول تطبيق تقنيات علمية قابلة للقياس لدراسة التاريخ كجزء من حقل يعرف باسم كلوديناميكش. من سانتا في إنستيتيوت 39s بلورب على ذلك: الماضي لا يكرر نفسه، ولكن القوافي، وقال مارك توين قال ذات مرة، إشارة إلى أنماط التاريخ، ينظر إلى القصص. واليوم، يتجمع حقل جديد حول فكرة أن الأنماط التاريخية يمكن قياسها إلى حد ما، وأن المستقبل يمكن أيضا التنبؤ به إلى حد ما. الباحثون المشاركين في مجال يطلق عليه كوتليوديناميكشوت بعد كليو، وموسى اليونانية من التاريخ. وقد درس علماء التاريخ البشري تقليديا الماضي باعتباره سلسلة من الأحداث الفريدة، مع كل حدث استجابة فريدة من نوعها لظروف فريدة من نوعها، يقول سفي البروفيسور الخارجية ديفيد كراكور. وقد اعتمدت الحقول التاريخية مثل علم الحفريات على مجموعات من إيفيدنسيمداشفوسيلز، على سبيل المثالمداشتو استخلاص استنتاجات حول الماضي. وقد حققت بعض المجالات خطوات واسعة في الاقتراب من التاريخ كعلم. ففي علم اآلثار، على سبيل املثال، وفرت طرق مسح ميدانية دقيقة معلومات جديدة قابلة للقياس الكمي عن موقع أنشطة إنسانية معينة وتوزيعها وتواترها وتنظيمها. في علم الوراثة السكان، والنمذجة التطورية على غرار الاحتمالات. ويود علماء الديناميات العصبية أن يرىوا أن الميادين التاريخية تتقاسم الأساليب فيما بينها وتبني مقاربات ونظريات من الفيزياء وغيرها من المجالات ذات الكميات الطويلة. إن أدوات علم التعقيد بدأت الآن تجعل المهمة قابلة للسحب، كما يقول كراكور. التقنيات الرياضية والحسابية مثل النماذج المستندة إلى الوكيل، والعلاقات بين القانون والقوة، ونماذج المعادلات التفاضلية الكلاسيكية، هي في عدة مجالات تساعد العلماء على تطوير أطر نظرية جديدة، على سبيل المثال. على الرغم من أنه ربما لا يوافق على كيف تبدو الديناميكا الليلية المتدنية للوهلة الأولى، أستطيع مساعدة 39 ولكن أرى أصداء جيوفاني باتيستا Vico39s نيو سسينس في هذا الجهد. لا بد لي من إعطاء الفضل جرأة من هذا بيبدريم. وقد نشرت تورشين كتابا يسمى دورات العلمانية المتعلقة بهذا الموضوع وأيضا يحافظ على موقع على شبكة الانترنت. لقد بدأت أدرك من خلال ورقته حول تحليل كوتديناميكش عدم الاستقرار السياسي في الولايات المتحدة، 1780ndash2018quot أيضا. It39s لا يخلو من العيوب، ولكن يستحق نظرة. قد ينتهي المجال كله إلى الفشل إلى الفشل، ونأمل فاز 39t تصبح علم كئيب آخر، ولكني اعتقد انه كان يستحق نظرة، وكان يتساءل عما إذا كانت أي مواصفات أخرى على دراية به. إذا كان أي شيء آخر، قد يعبر تلقيح مع بعض الأفكار للتداول. يكتب مجهول: هذا يبدو كثيرا مثل الفرضية وراء إسحاق Asimov39s سلسلة المؤسسة، والكتب التي حصلت لي مدمن مخدرات على عمله و الخيال العلمي بشكل عام. من ويكي أعلاه: فرضية هذه السلسلة هو أن عالم الرياضيات هاري سيلدون قضى حياته تطوير فرع من الرياضيات المعروفة باسم يسيكوهيستوري، وهو مفهوم علم الاجتماع الرياضي. باستخدام قوانين العمل الجماعي، فإنه يمكن التنبؤ بالمستقبل، ولكن فقط على نطاق واسع. وتقوم المؤسسة المركزية للصناعات الصغيرة ولجنة التجارة الحرة بعمل كبير في تدمير بيئة السوق عن طريق إبادة 39 مكبر الصوت 39 من أسواق العقود الآجلة. هذه الأنواع الذكية تساعد على الحفاظ على توازن تدفق النظام من خلال الألعاب عدم التماثل في السيولة، وبالتالي الحفاظ على السكان من الزخم السذاجة استراتيجيات تشغيل الأمامية في الاختيار. ويذكرني بالانقراض وإعادة إدخال الذئاب في يلوستون. يكتب إد ستيوارت: أستطيع أن أرى 39t كيف أن سبووفرز سيئة لأي شخص ولكن الزناد الأمامي العدو، كما تقترح. يجب أن يكون هناك كوغود جيفينكوت الحق في القفز أمام المشاركين أبطأ تتحرك أننا لسنا على علم. I39d أحب أن أعرف كيف وضعت ممارسة خداع. تخميني هو أنها بدأت بوصفها استراتيجية مضادة لتحييد الجبهة على التوالي قبل أن تصبح مصدرا للربح فينه تو يكتب: و كوتيكيكوت دمرت أوامر الحد عندما ضبطوا الصفقات خلال تحطم فلاش. أظن أن الجري هو الوحيد الحائز على الإرث والاستراتيجية التي يفضلها الله هرنان أفيلا يكتب: فينه، وأعتقد أن القضية مع أوامر الحد هو ببساطة التكيف القسري من قبل الأولاد الأولاد. لقد أثارت الجميع الجميع 39 اللعبة. ماذا كسب بل من خلال الإعلان عن نيتهم ​​في كتاب النظام. ما هو ملحوظ 39، هو كم من الوقت استغرق للمشاركين الآخرين لبدء العشوائية، وتقسيم واستخدام أوامر مخفية بطريقة أكثر انتشارا. ولكن لنقطة نظرك، نعم، سرعة مكلفة و 39they39 محاولة لاسترداد تلك التكاليف. مجهول يكتب: يقول تاجر الطاقة الشهير جون أرنولد: كوتفرونت الجري هو مربح ضد أوامر التقليدية التي دخلها البشر. ولكن مع مضيفات في هذا المزيج، تبدو الصورة مختلفة تماما: عندما تقفز خوارزمية هفت الأمامية أمام نظام ساخرة، ينخدع اللاعب الأمامي ويخسر المال. الخوارزمية الأمامية HFT39s يمكن 39t التمييز بسهولة بين الأوامر المشروعة و محاكاة ساخرة. فجأة يواجه المتسابق الأمامي مخاطر السوق الحقيقية ويجعل الاختيار العقلاني للقيام أقل الجبهة الأمامية. وباختصار، فإن الانتحال يشكل خطرا يتمثل في عدم جني الأرباح. لأن الانتحال هو مربحة فقط إذا الجبهة تشغيل موجود، والسماح على حد سواء من شأنه أن يضمن أن لا على نطاق واسع. قوت الأفكار الأساسية هي مشابهة جدا ل Hernan39s سوق البيئة آخر. والشيء الوحيد الذي قاله الوزراء لكارلوس هو أن السفير السعودي يجب ألا يتعرض للأذى لأن البلاد كانت الوشق في كل شيء. زيارة أوباما وتجنب الفرنسيين من قبل الولايات المتحدة تقدم أدلة بعد 25 عاما من حكمة كارلوس. [39] خلال عواصف بيزاردز من العواصف الأخرى أن الناس يعانون من إصابات خطيرة. جراح العظام عادة ما تكون مشغولة جدا بعد العواصف التاريخية. ما إذا كان هذا واحد سوف تلبي التوقعات لا يزال يتعين أن ينظر إليه. عندما كنت على المكالمة في الصدمة الصدمة خلال عاصفة ثلجية عام 1983، ونحن على استمرار من حالة عاصفة ثلجيةأخرى الرياح والرياح. بعض زملائه في مقاطعة فريدريك (كنت في مدينة بالتيمور) قررت أنه سيكون وقتا رائعا لاتخاذ الثلج له للخروج من خلال العاصفة. لقد غاب عن رؤية الشجرة التي استغرقها الثلوج على و لوستمداشاند انه عانى من نظام متعدد الجروح الكبدية (كان نصفه من الوريد الأجوف، والجراحين دهشوا انه نجا من رحلة هليكوبتر)، الحوض المكسور، عظم الفخذ المكسور، انهار الرئة، نزف في المخ ، كسر الجمجمة، كسر الخد ومقبس العين، 4 أو 5 الأضلاع المكسورة، كسر في الركبة كاب، كسر المعصم، حفنة من أصابع مكسورة. والكتفين المتخللين الثنائيين، ناهيك عن كدمات واسعة النطاق. حصل على شيء مثل 25 أو 30 وحدة من الدم. كانت سيئة جدا. خرج من المستشفى بعد 6 أسابيع. عواصف ثلجية خطيرة. أنهم ليسوا مجرد عواصف كبيرة. القناصة الأمريكية و هيرت لوكر جانبا، it39s نادرة نسبيا لفيلم اليوم لتحلب l39air دي ماشو إنجازه. جون واين اشترى المزرعة في حين يعود. فان دام والشركة هي على توقف. ليام يجري إعادة تاكين وإعادة إعادة تاكين. لكن البحر الأسود يقترب من كونه سلة ترحيب ذكورية مشوقة، مدفوعة المعلق لرواد السينما الجياع للجهات الفاعلة، وليس آثار سغ. لالصعبة التفكير البرمجة، ويثوت بيسي القمامة تختمر النص لل حساس الصغير العدوان المنحى. كوتيبلاك سيكوت هو هذا الفيلم. إخراج كيفن ماكدونالد، تبدأ القصة في إقالة روبنسون، كابتن غواصة بيطري، لعبت من قبل جود القانون رائع، تصلب الجسم، الذي يمشي مع بوليجس واستعداد رجل الكهف طفيف من مسحة طويلة. البحارة على الأرض تبدو دائما غير موثوقة قليلا من الأرض تحتها، وتظهر موقفا واسعا في حالة تصبح تيرا لا فيرما تحت لهم. فأنه يتفوق من قبل شركة إنقاذ بحري جافة عن البحارة، ولا تعطى للساعات والأحزاب الوداع المرسلة. وقبل نحو 70 عاما، فقد قارب يو - ألماني يحمل 40 مليون دولار أو نحو ذلك من الذهب في مكان ما في البحر الأسود. التعافي من ذلك هو مخطط القانون وزملائه قريبين يأتي مع لتوليد المال بعد أنها كانت 39f كاشيرد دون الكثير من المغلف. Don39t اسمحوا الباب ضرب لكم على مخرج. تجهيز الفرعية الفرعية أنها تعطى من قبل الذهاب بين، دانيلز (سكوت منيري) لتحقيق الانتعاش من القضبان الذهب يعني استئجار طاقم الخام: نصف الروس، نصف بريتس. الكثير من الحوار في روسيا غير مترجمة، ولكن عندما يكون هناك ترجمات من سبارثي، في كثير من الأحيان تاسيتورن روسكيز، هم يتكلم ويسكراكينغ أو عادة لا الثور حصى يضحك الجمهور مع، على الرغم من أن نافيس البريطانية ليس لديهم فكرة عن. قد يكتسب الفيلم نجاحا كبيرا إذا كان عليهم أن يرسلوا حوارات بريطانية، لأنهم سريعون، حلقي، وغالبا ما يكونون تحت عتبة واضحة يمكن فهمها. وتتميز الاعتمادات الافتتاحية بمونتاج من ستالين، الحرب العالمية الثانية في البحر مع الألمان والروس في منظور محبب، وعلى الأرض، مع غسل الدم تنقيط الشاشات من أعلى إلى أسفل. وقد وضعت هذه الصور الفوتوغرافية والصور التي التقطت في السن والبني المشهد للساعات القادمة من المخاطرة المحفوفة بالمخاطر ضد الأساطيل الروسية، والعواصف بين الأعراق والأبقار، والخطر المتواصل في الوقت الحاضر من كونها بطولات في عمق سارجاسو من الأخطار المحيطية والفشل غير المتوقع. وخيانة مذهلة حتى الوحشية لا يمكن ابتلاع. روبنسونلاو تدير الفرعية الديزل الروسي، اشتعلت وتصديقها. هناك شاب شاب، 18، توبين (بوبي سكوفيلد) الذين 39s استئجار في اللحظة الأخيرة، على متنها لعدم وجود واحد من ذوي الخبرة سوبارينرز، وانه على حد سواء ينمو مع الجزء، وتعلم العجلات المحيرة وأجهزة قياس الضغط في الغالب من الأوامر الروسية ، والخيوط والاتجاه اليدوي لانغواجيمداشاس وكذلك من الفائدة الأبوية التي اتخذها القانون في له. بل هو المودة إنسانية ثنداشيتش الوقت هو عرضت في خضم أزمات زيادة شيفيرتيمداشماكيس كنت على بينة من دقة قانون 39s وركمداشوفتن، هؤلاء الرجال لديهم غرفة شحيحة لرعاية حنون من أي شخص، ناهيك عن نوبي أنها عالقة مع في ظروف المعركة. الروس، الخرافين وصعبة، ندعو الشاب سخرت إلى كونها 12th، وبشجاعة، العذراء. الرجال من البحر don39t أعتقد أنه من المناسب للسفر مع عذراء. (في تجربتنا آمين، البحارة والمغامرين عالية المخاطر لا تتكرم النساء السفر معهم بأي صفة، اميداشيفن متنكرا في ذلك حتى إفيمينات الرجال، مع الثدي سكووشد.) ونحن نرى روبنسون 39s غلازي فلاشباكس له مرة واحدة سعيد الأسرة، ذهبت إلى اختياره الوظيفي. في مثل هذه الظروف، وعادة ما يكون هناك تقسيم غير متكافئ في الانقسامات في نهاية المطاف، إذا تمكنوا من العثور على الغارقة الفرعية واستخراج الذهب. لكن القبطان في القانون 39 يعرف أن الرجال يعملون جميعا على قدم المساواة، وكلهم تحت خطر متساو، وأنه يحكم الذهب هو أن تنقسم بالتساوي بين جميع الرجال، مما يؤدي إلى أي سكوالز صغيرة من الغضب والحسد والتذمر وعدم الرضا. التصوير السينمائي على ما يرام، وتمكن من أن ينقل كلوستيروفوبيك والقديمة من الحرفة، ولكن القبض على الرجل للإنسان لرجل التفاعلات في مواجهات الحياة والموت. يتم القبض على المشاهدين مع كل قرار الشعر الزناد والأزمات. القصة، مشدود كما هو، هو شيء من الإغاثة، يأتي في وقت أنجلينا Jolie39s مروعة ولكن صحيح أونبروكين، Hawking39s شلل الوجود في نظرية كل شيء، وتورينج الدماغية، الأرستقراطية لعبة غيم. It39s حول انتعاش الملايين من الدولارات بقيمة 39 من الذهب غير المكتشفة، وليس الكارثة الوجودية والحضارة العذاب. It39s فيلم man39s، فيلم تخفيف، مثل مشكلة نورمانمداشيت مسح القائمة الوحشية جدا من واقعيا من الحنك filmgoer39s المتوسط. إنها مشاركة متوترة ومهنية، تكشف عن كيفية تعامل الرجال على جوانبهم العلوية، والتعاون، والخوف، والتنافس على الكلب الأعلى، و 8230 رئيس الوزراء في مثل هذه الحالات، الطمع. ومع ذلك، بعض الكلاب في بعض البلدان، اعتمادا على الناس التي تؤثر عليها، في شهر واحد تتحول من الملائكة إلى الشياطين الشياطين. تعلمت الكثير في الأشهر السبعة الماضية تقاتل حوالي ثماني علب كلب من 5-10 حيوانات كل من قبل أن تحيط بها كل منهم العض في غضون أربعة أقدام ندش الجبهة والظهر، وأي من الجانبين. أفضل شيء يجب القيام به هو العودة إلى الزاوية. وإلا فإن أسرع ألفا سباقات حول ومحاولة لتقطيع لك من قبل العض في العمق. فمن المستحيل مشاهدة 360 درجة، لذلك إذا كان أحد محاصر دون أي خطة أو بروفة العقلية، ومن المؤكد أن تدفق الدم. خاصة بك. It39s بالضبط نفس التقنية شاهدت على فيلم ناشيونال جيوغرافيك من حزم من 6-10 ذئاب كل أخذ أسفل كاريبو، الغزلان، الأيائل أو حتى البيسون في ألاسكا. إلا إذا كانت الفريسة يمكن أن تفوق الحيوانات المفترسة (ليس لي أي أكثر)، أو العودة إلى الزاوية حتى لا يكون هناك الجانب الحقيقي أو الهجوم الخلفي، أو الاستيلاء على سلاح، ثم واحد هو تحت رحمة الأنياب. هذا لم يحدث لي، على الرغم من أنني كان يعض كل أسبوعين من قبل الكلاب شارع الأمازون بيرو في مختلف يطارد حيث أمشي. وكانت تقنيات القتال الأولية اثنين من اختيار ألفا (عادة أكبر الذكور)، وشحنها تجاهل محاولة نيبس من بقية. وبمجرد أن ركلة ألفا في الأسنان وانه يشرب، وتراجع بقية. في حالة مشتركة من أسرع الكلب يركض حول نهاية للحصول على وراء لكم، وأنا دائما تتحول ومطاردة على الفور انها تحاول ركلة عليه. تحتاج إلى الحصول عليه بسرعة لأنه كما كنت تتحول لمواجهة ذلك بقية حزمة يندفع كعبك. هذا الكلب هو الأسرع، وعادة ما يكون أشجع، وبمجرد أن الرمز البريدي قبالة بقية سوف تتبع زمام المبادرة بعيدا عن جسمك. مرة واحدة حصلت على هذه الاستراتيجيات أسفل، وأنا في الواقع تتطلع إلى التدريبات بعد الظهر أو الليل من القتال قبالة حزم بعد فترة طويلة في 39office 39، وكان راحة قبل الذهاب إلى السرير. حزينا أن أقول لطبيب بيطري، لجأت إلى الحرب النفسية لتحويل المد للحفاظ على من الذهاب نفسي دني نفسي. كنت أعرف الكلب ألفا من كل من ثماني حزم في غمضة على مسافة block39s كان عادة أكبر الذكور، ولكن تقريبا كما في كثير من الأحيان أغبيست الذي يقول معظم الخوف، مثل حفرة الثيران والمدن. كان حربي النفسية ساق لهم أثناء نومهم، وخصوصا خلال عاصفة مطيرة ليلية، وركلة لهم مباشرة في الجمجمة. إذا كنت ركلة في العين والأذن والأنف أو الأسنان يمكن أن يسبب أضرار دائمة، ولكن أردت فقط أن أقوم بنفسي كما المهيمنة. قدم قدمي اتصالا صعبا حوالي عشرين مرة على مدى الأشهر مع مختلف ألفاس النوم، من الصعب مثل كرة القدم يعاقب، ولكن رؤوسهم من الصعب جدا أنه كان مثل ركل صخرة قطرها 8quot. أنا أقدام متناوبة على مدى أسابيع تنتظر وجع للذهاب بعيدا. ليس لدي أي أظافر تركت على أي من أصابع قدمي الكبيرة من هذا. ثم يأتي الجزء النفسي في اللعب نداش رأس الصلبة ركل الكلب النوم يستيقظ على الفور وتحول غريزي والدغات في القدم. هناك 39 ثانية من الدرجة الثانية لركلة مرة ثانية مع نفسه، أو أفضل، القدم المعاكس، وحوالي ثانية واحدة بعد ركلة الأولى الحيوان يسجل الألم، عيون مملة، ويتجاهل قبالة الصراخ في الألم مع ذيل مدسوس. الآن هو الوقت المناسب لمتابعة ذلك من خلال المطر لكتل، وليس السماح لها الاستلقاء، والراحة أو النوم لمدة ثلاثين دقيقة. It39s أسهل مما كنت تعتقد لأن كل ألفا يعود إلى نفس المكان بعد بضع دقائق، لذلك أنا مجرد وضع في الانتظار، كما فعلوا معي، والحفاظ عليها مستيقظا والتحرك. هذا هو مزيج من الألم والحرمان من النوم، وبعد بضع ليال من هذا، دون أن تفشل، فإن ألفا لم تعد تؤدي حزمة في الهجوم. بدلا من ذلك، عندما يرى لي القادمة، فإنه يخفض الرأس في لفتة القطة والسولكس قبالة، تليها بقية. أن 39s الوقت ليكون على حالة تأهب لهجمات من الناس في الشوارع، الذين يعيشون مثلهم، والتعاطف في العصابات. I know this from hundreds of encounters with the same packs in the past few months in the Amazon where the dogs have turned nasty with a sudden rise in consciousness of the people who now treat the dogs like second, instead of equal, citizens. These are the techniques to beat fallen canine angels. And they worked on people too. Pitt T. Maner III suggests: These high frequency deterrents called zappers work fairly well and could be easily shipped to Peru. At least it would make an interesting study. Marion Dreyfus writes: When I rented a house on a hilltop at End of The World, Zimbabwe, baboons made increasingly aggressive encroachments toward me and the house. I remember saying to the park ranger, who came and shot the baboons dead: quotOnce they are no longer afraid of people, they will rip your face off. We must kill them to keep that from happening. quot Andy writes: A recent study on Montana and Wyoming data indicates that killing wolves leads to increased depredation of farm livestock. One theory proposed is that shooting the alpha breaks the discipline of the pack and leads to more independent wolf breeding pairs. These rogue lone attackers are more likely to predate livestock than an alpha led pack. The researchers did not find a drop in the depredation until gt25 of them were destroyed, which corresponds to their population39s rate of increase. The idea for a rancher is to avoid killing the alpha unless he can and will take out more than 25 of the population of the wolves. Tonight I went for my usual 5k walk. I plugged in my ear phones and hit my Pandora app and had to decide between my stations. I was in the mood for some rock, so I choose the appropriate station, turned the volume to the right level and set off my journey. About 34 of the way through my walk, I was heard a special treat. The studio demo version of the Lynyrd Skynyrd39s quotFree Birdquot. Now, I39m sure most, if not all, of you are familiar with that Free Bird. It is, IMHO, one of the 3 greatest rock songs of all time (the other two being Layla and Stairway to Heaven). But I had never heard the studio demo version before. What is unique about this particular song is how different, yet similar, it is to the album version or the live version (I prefer the live version8230.quotplay it pretty for Atlantaquot). Free Bird starts out as a ballad, but then, kicks into high gear with the famous 1970s style guitar jam. When the studio demo version kicks into high gear, it starts out with the screaming lead guitar for a few moments8230then the lead guitar stops, and all you hear for the next few minutes are the rhythm guitars. Anyone who knows Free Bird know that lead guitar jams long and hard for at least 5 minutes straight. It is an unmistakeable 5 minutes of classic rock guitar licks that anyone with even a passing appreciation of classic rock will know and recognize. But on the demo version, the quotjamquot portion is mainly rhythm guitars for almost the entire time. What was very interesting to me is that even though there were only rhythm guitars playing for most of the song, in my head, I could not help but hear the lead guitar8230even though they were not there. I tried very hard to concentrate on the rhythm guitars and appreciate what I was hearing. Heck, I sorta played in garage band in my teens and I played the rhythm portion of Free Bird many times quotback in the dayquot. But no matter how hard I tried, my mind forced me to hear the absent lead guitar. Listening to this demo version of Free Bird got me thinking about the markets and my investing strategies. How many things happen around me that I just assume are there8230.but really aren39t8230..whether in my life as a father or as an investment adviser When I vet money managers to place my clients money with, how much I am superimposing (is that the right word) what I think I should be hearingseeing over what is really going on When are there subtle (or not so subtle) changes that I miss because the meme playing in my head tricks me into hearingseeing what I expect to be there I39m going to refocus myself to see if I39m really hearing what I think I39m hearing8230.or whether there are some missing lead guitar illusions that are clouding my judgement. I pose this question to the group: How might one go about doing that In the meantime82308230..here39s the YouTube link to the demo version of the Free Bird. Try and listen to it without hearing the absent lead guitars(also, bonus points if you spot the difference in lyrics): And to give some context to those that don39t know the song, here39s the album version of the same song. And I39d be remiss if I didn39t include my favorite version of the song (play it pretty for Atlanta). And just because it39s so tasty, I39ll throw in a little semi-obscure Skynyrd hit: Curtis Lowe Leo Jia writes: Reality or illusion I like to study the topic, and learn how to tell the difference or whether there is a difference. One believes something to be real when the 5 senses send signals to the mind and the mind says thus it is real. That is what reality means to most people. What if one39s 5 senses were altered The mind then has no way to tell. Think about virtual reality. Though the current technology is not fully there to truly alter the 5 senses, it demonstrates how the mind determines reality. Actually, the concept of virtual reality itself tells that there is not a real line between reality and illusion. It is all mixed together. Do we live in the world or does the world exist within oneself I am more inclined to the latter. Scott Brooks writes: Great points, Leo. I like illusions as well. My youngest son is into magic and illusions and does a pretty fun show for kids birthday parties. Even though I know how the illusion works, it is still fascinating and fun. But I39d like to take it a step deeper. I know when I39m being tricked when watching my son or a Penn and Teller show. But what about when I have no idea that I39m being deceived8230.or even deeper, when I39m the one doing the deceiving, and I39m both the deceiver and the mark (i. e. self deception). I39d like to know how I can clear my head of those times. But8230..how do I know what I don39t know that I don39t know Rocky39s Ghost writes: Excellent post, Scott Thanks for sharing. Rocky believes that, when speculating (as distinct from investing), more important than seeing one39s own ghosts, is seeing everyone else39s ghosts. For example, in his early days, Rocky would occasionally find bona fide arbitrages in the options markets. However, the ability to monetize the arbitrages relied on OTHER PEOPLE also seeing the arbitrage and closing it. If you are the only sane man, you will likely go bankrupt long before others realize that you are the only sane man. Or, put another way, when the lunatics are running the asylum, it pays to trade as a lunatic 8212 while remaining mindful that they are indeed lunatics. Now where did Rocky leave his bottle of Clozapine All the testing I have done on stops indicates they work exactly as you would expect. They reduce risk and they also reduce expected return. Sometime they reduce the return to breakeven or negative in which case its better off just not to trade. In other cases they eliminate bankruptcy risk and allow for some return, but not the expected return you get without stops. It seems to fit right in with EMT, CAPM and practical ideas on markets regarding risk and return. If you are selling disaster risk, you expect to be paid for it. Ralph Vince writes: Or, expressed in terms of their effect: Total Return (A2 - V)(Q2) - 1 Where A Average return per trade (expressed as a multiple, i. e. 1.0 return) V Variance in the A39s Q total number of A39s When stops reduce V more than they increase A2, it pays to use them. I suggest conducting tests on this, it is far more revealing (in terms of the distribution of the A39s) then meets the (rolling) eye(s) when looking at the simple equation. It can be interesting to open up a quote list and view the prices with a mindset that you haven39t looked at the market in months or years. Oil here, bonds there, etc. And then process your initial reaction. The loss of a nail caused the loss of a war. It all starts with the horrific having two positions on opposite sides at same time. Worse yet is the use of mental stops with the idea that the broker can39t read your mind. Andrew Goodwin writes: Voice brokers know the locations of the stops and the times when they will make margin calls or force liquidations. The broker does not need to read your particular mind to know the levels that once hit will create more trading activity. Mental stops fail because a broker can extrapolate the actionable levels from the inside view of the collective levered positions and stops given by other clients. Bejan39s basic premise is that everything in nature is a flow. There are the obvious flows of things like water (rivers, blood) or air (lungs, air distributions systems), etc. In addition, he discusses flows of stress, for example, in the arrangement of the limbs on a tree, or the flow of animate mass, e. g. when a herd of animals runs or school of fish swims. His premise is that living systems are continuously changing and adapting their configuration to maximize the quotcurrents that flow throughquot them. Even the building of the Egyptian pyramids, he argues, represents the flow of stones from a broad area to a single point (the pyramid). Here quotlivingquot systems (both animate and inanimate, such as rivers or pyramids being built) are constantly evolving and changing their configuration. When a system stops reconfiguring its flows, it dies: a dried-out river bead, dead animal, or completed pyramid receives no further maintenance, i. e. there is no more reconfiguration when something is dead. Here is a Q amp A on the concept of Constructal Design by a Forbes reporter and Bejan that has things described in less technical terms than his paper. In terms of applying these concepts to trading, it seems to me that the obvious entity that flows is money. One concern that I have, however, in adapting Bejan39s ideas to a trading model is that, in the flows that he is describing, there is always a driving force from high to low: gravity pulls water down a landscape, a pressure differential drives air in and out of the lungs, a disturbance or threat forces animals to run in the opposite direction. As a result, all of the flows that he is describing are one-way, or unidirectional. This central to his entire theory, as the opposite behavior is prohibited from the Second Law of Thermodynamics: heat does not move from cold objects to hot on its own, rivers do not flow uphill, air does not come out of the lungs when the diaphragm expands to reduce the pressure in the lungs to draw air in, dropping the broken pieces of a coffee cup on the floor will never result in re-assembled cup, etc. Thus it would seem that a critical element in adapting Bejan39s ideas for trading will revolve around describing a driving force for the flow of money. This is really your expertise far more than mine, but let me start the dialog by suggesting that the driving force for money is the perceived potential for money growth (PPMG). 39Perceived Potential39 here implies that there is an opportunity to make a profit from an investment, but that the outcome is not necessarily guaranteed (think of Enron and Bernie Madoff). Reconfiguration, also a key tenant to Bejan39s ideas, happens with the flow of money from one instrument to the next. If we now draw the analog of a river basin, and that high PPMG is analogous to a low point in the flow of water over a landscape, then it can be seen that money will flow from regions of low potential (elevated areas, mountainsides) to regions of high potential (low areas, valleys). The lower the elevation, the more rapidly money will flow into it. What complicates the analysis is that PPMG is a dynamic quantity. A company can be very profitable at one point in time (Kodak, General Motors, Blackberry), and thus have considerable growth potential, but over time, its growth potential can change. This is analogous to the river basin landscape changing constantly in elevation, and having the flow adjust accordingly. This does happen in nature as well, of course, both slowly (Colorado RiverGrand Canyon) or quickly (earthquakevolcano). Such a time-varying landscape would be important to include in a trading model. I think that the above would be a bare minimum to implement the ideas that Bejan is putting forth. I did do a quick search to see if people were using these ideas for trading (in particular) or financeeconomics, but I did not find much. This is not a surprise: Bejan39s ideas are new and different and thus will take some time to permeate to other areas. This, in itself, is an opportunity to seize the advantage. The risk, is, of course, that the ideas may not have significant utility in trading to upset the state-of-the-art now in place, and thus will not pay off after time spent trying to integrate them. This is the risk of adopting any new technologyidea, I suppose. Anyway, there you have it: my rather disjointed ideas on the matter. I would be interested to see if Bejan39s ideas could prove to be of utility for trading. Jon Longtin, Ph. D. P. E. Professor Department of Mechanical Engineering 159 Light Engineering Bldg. State University of New York at Stony Brook Stony Brook, NY 11794-2300 QEe (QE euro) seems to be moving forward. So why did gold, which has had some strength over the past month, not budge at the news the way currencies did anonymous writes: The theory I am working on in my head and was hoping to have time to write about tonight is as follows: QE depends upon a central bank quotcartelquot all agreeing to do it in unison and or in staggered phases. The cartel allows them to get away with this absurd policy without immediately wrecking the currency as compared to other currencies they don39t seem to be devaluing. Switzerland broke the cartel. This means that the future of QE is in fact in jeopardy and will be more limited than otherwise. anonymous writes: Isn39t that the path off all cartels of gt 1 players (Debeers), Look at OPEC post 1974. Like the prisoner39s dilemma, the quotcartel participant, quot game would call for a certain, upside price where the first member jumps ship, with a phony justification for their greed trumping the purpose of the cartel. anonymous replies: Yes of course. Only in this case instead of restricting the supply, the deal was to expand the supply. In the old days when Kuwait broke from the cartel and cheated it brought oil down more than just by the amount of Kuwait39s extra production because once one member of the cartel cheats everyone else is going to. It39s the same thing here. Once SNB broke, others will be tempted to as well. This isn39t talked about in the press because of the insane and incorrect notion that your currency going up is somehow a bad thing, so the mainstream all think that the Swiss are somehow hurting themselves. Alston Mabry writes: But the alt version is that they weren39t playing along because their EUR purchases were putting upward pressure on EUR, counter to ECB39s strategy. anonymous replies: What ECB, US, and Japan would have wanted is for the SNB to devalue along with them. SNB wasn39t going to do that. Now, all of QE depends on the big lie that you are not really printing money and not really devaluing the currency. Any time someone says quotyou39re printing moneyquot the response is met with quotyou just don39t understandquot followed by a description of the complicated process of QE and how it39s not really printing money. But the fallback position for the QE39ers is quotlook, there39s no inflation (no consumer inflation. it39s in assets) and quotthe currency isn39t being devaluedquot. The SNB39s peg kept the ECB being able to claim they weren39t destroying the currency. The SNB undoing of the peg reveals that the emperor has no clothes and they are, in fact, going to destroy the currency. Alston Mabry responds: It may be true that claims were made about the EUR on the basis of the CHF cross. But I find compelling the narrative that Mario called up Thomas Jordan and said quotlook, unless you39re willing to print tens of B of extra SFrs a month, you39re not gonna be able to keep up. quot And Jordan, knowing that technically the SNB could do it but politically internally couldn39t, said quotyou39re rightquot and they dropped the cap. The RSP (equal-weighted) SampP index ETF is well-known. Less known is the RYE (equal-weighted energy sector ETF). It has only existed since about 2006. Equal-weighted ETF39s give a larger weighting to smaller-capitalization stocks and, to the extent that individual stocks approach zero, they engage in the Rocky pastime of quotscaling down to oblivionquot. That is, If cap weighted indices quotride the trend, quot equal-weighted indices sell the winners and add to the losers on each rebalancing. Might anyone have some insights about whether such a practice is inherently superior or inferior over time And especially for a (distressed) sector index Kora Reddy writes: But the academic literature suggest otherwise: quotequal-weighting is a contrarian strategy that exploits the quotreversalquot in stock pricesquot (see this pic) . Except in Australia, equi-weighted outperformed the cap-weighted in major countries. Gordon Haave writes: I wrote about this 6-7 years ago when the first Wisdom Tree stuff came out and they were talking about how equal weighted was superior to cap weighted and showed the back-tested numbers. All they were really saying is that quotover time small caps beat large capsquot which isn39t exactly news. To call a equal weighted index and quotindexquot is itself misleading. A cap weighted index is quotthe marketquot or some approximation thereof. Theoretically every single market player could go passive and be in it. You can39t do that with an equal weighted index (or at least not without distorting prices). As to your idea of how they have to double down on the loses that is somewhat limited by the fact that once the name falls out of the index it is dropped. Larry Williams comments: Along that line Our work shows it is better to invest equal dollar amounts vs equal share amounts Gibbons Burke adds: I know a fund which used to invest 90 of client stake in SPX via SPY. A couple of years ago they switched to 10 equal dollar investment in each of the nine sector select spdr ETFs, with the intent of rebalancing to equal dollar allocation annually. They found, in testing, the strategy provided an average of 200 bps of boost each year over the cap-weighted all-SPY investment. anonymous writes: Regarding a depressed sector, is there any truth to the adage: quotBuy the stock that has gone down the least, and also the one that has gone down the mostquot. The strong stock will come back smartly and the oversold weak stock will come up from being smashed on a higher percentage then the middle of the pack. So if this is true you could design your own basket of strong stock leaders in the depressed sector mixed with oversold beaten down stocks that pass a screening survival test. Erich Eppelbaum adds: Theoretically speaking, re-balancing a portfolio by using the winnings to buy more of the losers is at the heart of the only portfolio selection methodology that I know of that mathematically guarantees to asymptotically outperform the best stock included in the portfolio (See Thomas Cover39s Universal Portfolio seminal 1991 paper): pdf link. I don39t know if in real life the portfolios resulting from this methodology are inferior or superior over time to those created by rebalancing based on allocating more to the winners (such as a market cap weighted portfolio) I would assume that any result would depend heavily on the rebalancing costs and slippage (the liquidity of big vs small stocks matter, especially when trying to push size), and I would assume that the slippage incurred in a market cap weighted portfolio would be less than that incurred in a equal weight portfolio (less small company shares to buysell). In reference to a previous post, another thing to consider is that perhaps there are many effects at play other than the small-cap quotmore-risk-more-rewardquot effect. For example, a sell-the-winners-buy-the-losers methodology could be profiting partly by say the volatility harvesting effect described by Claude Shannon . This brings up another question: The volatility harvesting effect becomes greater as the volatility of the portfolio39s underlying stocks increases. In the stock market, volatility usually increases when the market falls. Could this mean that an equal weightedrebalanced portfolio would outperform a market cap weighted portfolio during bad times and would the opposite be true during good times Would be interesting to test8230 I make an unapologetic forecast that by Friday, the EU thumb-sucking backscratchers in the markets will realize that Draghi must resign. The emperor has no clothes. Hello USDEUR parity. Stefan Martinek writes: My unapologetic forecast is that USDEUR will go below parity and somewhere around 0.6-0.8 German voters will decide to leave the party. Euro is too strong for weak members, and too weak for strong ones 8212 it does not fit anybody. Political will will change and the path of least resistance will change as well. Nothing dramatic will happen at that point. The world will function as usual, Schengen area will stay in place, winter resorts in Alps will be nice and functioning. Most forecast are usually wrong 8230 The Swiss National Bank (SNB) in a way played a good game of 3 Card Monty the past few years with market participants. The winning card was where the rate was going to be. On September 6, 2018 the SNB set a peg for the EuroSwiss rate at 1.2 when prevailing market rates where approximately 1.1, a depreciation of the Swiss Franc of about 9. Between September 6, 2018 and January 15, 2018 the EuroSwiss rate traded between 1.20 and 1.2650, a roughly 5 range. On January 15, 2018 the SNB removed the 1.2 floor and at the extreme the EuroSwiss market rate went close to .8500, a move of about 30. Who played the game Who controlled the cards Who were the shills I could not help but recall my own adventures in 3 Card Monty and loss of a 50 bill as a student playing Holden Caulfield in Times Square circa 1983. What trading lessons might there be in the move by the SNB and subsequent moves in markets How can these lessons be embodied to provide a future playbook of offensive and defensive plans Following some delirium from trading the markets the past few days some clarity came to mind on some runs the past day or two. First, some empathy to all have may lost in the market this past week. One close friend of many years described the feeling just 30 minutes after the SNB decision by saying quot I feel like I just got my leg blown off, I can barely think straightquot. 10 rules, lessons, and examples I have found effective and illustrative. 1. Find and trade markets where your edge is the greatest. 2. Avoid markets were the probability of rule changes and lack of transparency is present. 3. Think of and imagine market scenarios others fail to. 4. Fundamental macroeconomic forces will ultimately prevail. 5. Trading time frames and profit objectives though must coincide with what the market is giving you at any one time. 6. Quantify risk with a multidimensional perspective, not just by one or two measures such as VAR or a price stop. 7. Learn from history. Jay Gould and his attempts to corner the gold markets in the late 186039s. The Russian default of 1917 and 1998. The European Rate Mechanism break up. The Tequila crisis of 1994. The Asian financial crisis. 8. Be deadly serious, as Gichin Funakoshi said quotYou must be deadly serious in trainingquot. If you have a position make it a meaningful size and monitor it carefully. I recall many comments from fellow traders the past few years saying something like quotI am long EuroSwiss just to have some on but not really watching it. quot 9. Define and use a trading methodology that incorporates a process and framework that works for you. Inclusive in this should be a daily routine that includes diet, exercise, family time, etc. 10. Seek out catalysts for CHANGE in markets. Where are the forces, in a Newtonian like law of motion, building up the greatest to cause a CHANGE and movement in markets What further elaborations and examples might there be Stefan Martinek writes: I was thinking about it recently. Great list. I would only add: (a) Be prepared that liquidity in any market can disappear regardless of historical data or experience (b) Mind counterparty risk. Anatoly Veltman writes: Excellent lessons from John. The dilemma here is of common variety, though. Similar to an individual smaller stock: you39re either an insider, or a mark. In case of the SNB last few years: you were either in bed with the devil, or you were exposed to a chance of a -100000 annualized loss on any given random day My recollection of the marketing pitches for retail focused FX platforms was that they had some parallels to the bucket shops described by LeFevre, particularly one of them who advertised that one of your account features could be quotno margin calls. quot If a position went against you by a particular threshold, the broker would automatically close it out, so you would have no quotsurprises. quot anonymous writes: FXCM stock (a listed US company) is indicated down 75 this morning. They issued a statement that the CHF move quotgenerated negative equity balances owed to FXCM of approximately 225 million. quot As of 93014, their stated equity book value was 262.7 million (source: Bloomberg) 8212 so if their book value is real 8212 then this particular problem can be contained. Interactive Brokers stock is indicated down 10 this morning. They have made no public statements so far. But as we39ve seen time and again, broker-dealers rely on customer confidence and should a large number of customers start withdrawing collateral, this could spiral. Hence silence isn39t golden. Ed Stewart writes: A few things about IBKR. First, is is a much more highly capitalized than financial statements at first suggest, as only 15 of the company trades on the exchange, the rest is owned by managers and (mostly, if i recall 75) by CEO Peterffy. As of the last quarterly report, excess regulatory capital stood at 3.25B. SampP credit rating A - Stable, zero long term debt. Anyone who has traded there is aware that relative to other brokers they are very conservative on margining issues, etc. Also, they don39t have the business model of bucketing all of the trades on their FX platform like most retail platforms do. The IB FX ecn mostly allows IB customers to trade with other IB customers and other banks, though they are also a market maker there. In other words it is a much, much stronger business than the crappy retail FX companies. The other issue that is hitting the company recently (hurt their results last quarter and almost certainly this quarter) Is that they keep their equity in a basket of 16 currencies that they call the GLOBAL, so they are getting hit by the strong dollar. I could be wrong I think a currency peg blowing up is the kind of thing their risk department and peterffy would identify as a risk and substantially mitigate, especially if they had retail traders trading in masse against the peg the way the other forex platforms had. This is based on my reading most of Peterffy39s writing and conference calls over the last few years, I could be dead wrong. If there is a bad quarter out of this but the damage is not too bad I think it might end up a solid buying opportunity. It was my largest stock holding in tax deferred accounts till yesterday when I dumped most of it. Garrett Baldwin adds: Global Brokers NZ has failed and Alpari U. K. is insolvent. anonymous writes: What am I missing Why should a retail broker go under because a currency moved Were they trading against their customers as opposed to just executing orders Anatoly Veltman writes: If they don39t call for margin, they end up owning position. How could they do anything with a position thru the entire initial bidless 20 gap They obviously did rush to liquidate on the small bounce and that39s how the new low was made (look up intraday chart) 83 years ago. It39s a very good read, and appropriate for the time, but government interactions in the grain markets, wars, and international trade have rendered much of this obsolete. Still, it39s a good picture of the level of scholarship that was applied to the wheat markets 83 years ago. Much has changed from then to now, but one thing never changes. The best and brightest of any generation will always drill down, and try to find a way to beat a single market. 1. The Swiss franc is up about 17 this morning. This is unprecedented in recent history. That is a BLACK SWAN. A BLACK SWAN is an event that you have not read to be predicted on Zero Hedge or anywhere else. This cannot happen without reverberations 8212 and could be destabilizing 8212 and volatility inducing in unexpected places. 2. This could be the ultimate no-confidence vote in the Euro currency. 3. It makes Bitcoin39s move of 23 yesterday look quaint. anonymous writes: The most obvious conclusions to draw: 1) Further downward pressure on the Euro currency 2) Further downward pressure on global yield curves 3) Further loss of confidence in central banks More derivative thoughts to consider: a. Impact of forced liquidation of short CHF trades and potential subsequent reduction in risk and positions b. Impact on CHF funding trades in places like Hungary and Poland c. Impact on Swiss economy given where the currency and rates settle d. Impact on SNB flows e. Impact on ECB meeting next week in terms of QE The Fundamental Dilemma of all market manipulation, whether legal (as in this case) or illegal: when you stop pushing up the value of an asset, it falls back, giving you mark to market losses on your inventory. Today the SNB is taking tremendous losses on the Euro assets it has accumulated in its Euro buying binge. I would not want to be a private shareholder of the SNB (or a swiss taxpayer) on a day like this. Speaking of round numbers, the euroswiss must want to end up close to parity of 1. It will make it so much easier to do all the conversion at Davos. I notice that the Dow is down already and I note that gas is 1.86 this morning overnight from 1.92 here in Southern Ohio. Many empty rentals around my area. Many people, due to oil production in my area, have been been priced out of renting. I have several empty units but have found over the years people don39t move over the holidays nor the cold winter months unless evicted or just moving into the area. A complete background check will sort through any of those issues. Gary Rogan writes: There is enormous destruction going on of all kinds of daring, innovative oil drillers, the best of the best, which will produce damage that may last many years, as well as many traditional oil, infrastructure, transportation, etc, etc, companies but all people care about is the price of gas. Isn39t that selfish Pitt T. Maner III writes: It will be interesting to see the impacts to natural gas supplies as the number of drill rigs in operation decreases. quotIn fact, the current natural gas rig count remains 80 below its all-time high of 1,606 reached in late summer 2008. In the year-ago period, there were 372 active natural gas rigs. quot This paper gives an idea of the relationship between drilling new wells and production. Talking to a friend: quotIf a year ago somebody had said just put everything in zeroes and utilities and then forget about it until January 2018, what would we have thought of that suggestionquot And then I wondered: What is it now that would sound just as stupid As the days lengthen and the crocuses bloom, as the buzz of spring approaches, one39s thoughts turn to the icon of the warmer times of the year: baseball. Over the weekend, I was talking to a neighbor about the coming season, and he commented about the changing styles of ballparks and their effect on the game and how it39s played. Consider: Yankee Stadium is often referred to as the House that Ruth Built. I had always understood that to be a reference to the size of the ballpark. When it opened in 1923, Yankee Stadium was 60-70 percent bigger in seating than other ballparks8211accommodating the fan interest in the King of Swat. But one could argue that the moniker The House that Ruth Built was as much about the dimensions of the field as about the size of the stands. Yankee Stadium had incredibly shallow depths along the foul lines8211under 300 feet. While no one would question Ruth39s ability to belt out home runs, the quantity of those hit at home was likely aided by the short distance to the foul pole. Perhaps that39s the reason Ruth39s (and Gehrig39s) power is shown so well in extra base hits. Those aren39t helped so much by a shortened outfield. Compare Jacobs Field (now Progressive Field) in Cleveland, or Oriole Park at Camden Yards, with 320-330 along the foul lines. (The short lines were not strictly a Yankee Stadium characeteristic. Ebbets Field and Fenway Park, for instance, both had similarly short foul lines.) Big difference. (It wasn39t until 1958, tough, that dimensions like those of Yankee Stadium would be considered unacceptable under the MLB rules for new ball parks.) As we were talking, I thought about the different eras in the construction of baseball parks. There was first the innovator era, when the owners built the parks and often named the parks for themselves. Wrigley Field, for instance, named for the owner of the Cubs who play there. Not that Wrigley built the park, he just named it after himself during the late 1920s. Comiskey Park was built and named for the White Sox owner, Ebbetts Field in Brooklyn, Griffith Stadium (Washington Senators), Shibe Park (renamed Connie Mack Stadium) (Philadelphia As), and so on. (Not all were so named, though Forbes Field in Pittsburgh, for instance, was named for the soldier in the French and Indian War who named the city.) It was in this cohort of ballpark that the quotclassicalquot design took hold. It would hold sway until after World War 2, when the next era of ballparks would arrive, typified by Memorial Stadium (quotThe Old Grey Lady on 33rd Streetquotor quotThe World39s Largest Outdoor Insane Assylum, quot take your pick) in Baltimore. (At one time, at 34th and Charles Streets, by the Entrance to Johns Hopkins39s Homewood campus, there was a bust of Johns Hopkins on an island in the street. When Memorial Stadium opened, so the story goes, there was such confusion about where the stadium was8211many drivers thinking the bust was for some athlete, insisted on turning onto 34th Street, with lots of accidents, as the traffic signals were not set for lots of left turning traffic (many drivers jumping the light)8211that the bust was moved to the side of the road. At least that was the story on the Homewood campus, particularly the university39s historian during the centennial commemoration of its founding. This new cohort of ballparks was designed for mixed use8211not as a ballpark for which some other sport might be tolerated. That meant some compromises. They still abided by the general feel of the first round8211the quotowners39 roundquot8211of parks. Bricks and such, but they also started strut some steel materials wer e used to have the ballparks quotfit inquot with the surrounding community, though how something as big could quotfit inquot isn39t so straightforward. One other interesting feature to this round: Unlike the prior round, in which the teams financed the construction of the park, now municipalities were doing so. Perhaps that was the beginning of the myth that ballparks pay for themselves. At least for the baseball season, with 81 games played, I can see how there might at least be an argument for economic benefit, but for football. In any case, this round of ballparks lasted into the 1960s. It may not harken the same loyalty that the owners39 round would8211but when the baby boomers went to the park, it was as often as not one of the newer parks, and so the newer parks were embedded with pleasant memories in their brains, unless of course they were Senators39 fans, in which case I can39t talk about any association of pleasantry since my recollection of the Senators in that era was of a team more consistent with A-AA ball than the big show. And some days, sandlot might be applicable (except when Frank Howard was hitting well they didn39t look so bad then8211even the defense seemingly performed on those days). width392 height232 The Astrodome ushered in the quotmodernquot era of ballparks. It was domed8211that was new. It had a space age look (befitting its location in Houston)8211that was new. It was big8211that was new (well, it was in Texas). No longer would the fans enjoy the proximity to the field of the earlier eras. Houston being a major petrochemical center, it39s not surprising that the Astrodome also ushered in Astroturf, a plastic pseudograss that bears as much similarity to its living counterpart as an aluminum Christmas tree does to the living (or at least formerly living) one (or if you prefer, ox to bull, or McDonald39s shake to those available at many of the remaining diners still operating in the US). I39ll leave aside the issue of whether real baseball can be played on pseudograss8211a field lacking the sweet scent of mowed green blades, all in support of that most pristine shape in sports, the baseball diamond8211or has to be played on the real thing to qualify as quotrealquot baseball. There are also variations on this theme8211for instance, no dome, or a retrievable cover. Perhaps the peak of the third age can be found in the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, know affectionately in the Twin Cities, prior to its demise, as the West Bank Marshmallow. It may remain as the only site in which an MLB game was snowed out by a 15 inch blizzard on May 15, 19868211without a snowflake ever touching the field. The Metrodome was a hitter39s paradise. Four baggers would go flying out faster than an F-18 off a carrier. Maybe that39s why Kirby Puckett liked playing for the Twins so much. Regardless, while there are many who probably liked the Metrodome, it always struck me as sterile. Indeed, that39s my complaint about the third age: the ballparks lacked character, identity. There was one thing I liked about the Metrodome, though: it was right by downtown. That was not a universal characteristic. It wasn39t a feature of ballparks until the fourth era, the one we are still in. In the fourth era, ballparks went back to the early 1900s to take their style cues. Sure, modern engineering enhanced the experience, with unobstructed views. And there were the skyboxes, rights to which flowed to the team39s bottom line. But with the style going back to the classic one of the early 20th century, one might term it retro. Fans like the effect. Ballparks built over the past two decades have been designed in the retro style. Bricks, old style grillwork, often located near downtowns, and so on. Character was not absent in these places. The trend started with the building of Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Oriole Park was part of a grander scheme to revitalize Baltimore39s downtown. First, there was Harborplace, then the Aquarium (site of Willy Don39s battle with the sea lions in 1981). And then, nothing. There were a few apartment houses built, a convention center, but not much else. Downtown Baltimore still felt incomplete. With the departure of the Colts in 1984, scurrying like a thief in the night at the end of March that year, with snow flurries in the air and a Governor whose campaign theme of honest government seemed to think that it prohibited him from intervening, Baltimore39s city elders realized the risks of the Orioles leaving Baltimore (I39m not sure the name would have moved as easily as quotColtsquot did) were there, and needed to be addressed. Back in the late 1970s, the Os39 owner, Edward Bennett Williams, complained that it took too long to get from Memorial Stadium back to DC and that Baltimore alone was too small of a market to support a baseball team. Enter the Mayor, who had the police tail Williams back to DC for the next three games that he attended. When Williams next complained about the troubles of leaving 33rd Street, he was met by the Mayor noting how quickly Williams made it back to his DC office (not noted was the speed that Williams39s limousine took to achieve those times, nor the anger among the State police that Williams8211a defense attorney8211that they were under strict orders not to issue a speeding ticket to that car). Williams never complained about it again. So the city elders caucused as they were wont to do, and they decided that Memorial Stadium, beloved as she was, likely was near the end of her useful life. Barely 30, and washed up. Thus began the planning for a new ballpark in downtown Baltimore, around which further downtown development would happen. There was mass transit emerging in the city (though why Baltimore needed a subway is beyond me), and I-95 right next door to facilitate ingress and egress. That was the plan, at any rate. It took a few years to get all the plans in place, but when Camden Yards was finished, it was magnificent. So much so that it kicked off the retro trend One of the nicest ballparks built with the retro theme is ATampT Park, the replacement for Candlestick Part in San Francisco. ATampT was built in part because not only was Candlestick not economically competitive in terms of skyboxes and the like but it was arguably the worst located park in the MLB. The winds off of San Francisco Bay would howl in the summer, so much that Fisherman39s Wharf and the Presidio seemed warm even during the summer. Had the park been built a mere 75 or so yards to the west, the winds would have been less of an issue. Ditto for orientation. The fog that enveloped Candlestick during night games was legendary8211not only for the associated temperature drops, but also the challenges it presented to the player, particularly in the outfield. One of the Alou brothers once noted that at Candlestick, you could see the pitcher throw the ball, you could see the batter hit the ball, but from then until the ball came down, the fielder had to rely on instinct8211you just couldn39t see the ball all the way through the air. This was the place, after all, where Stu Miller (he died a little over a week ago) was called for a balk during the 1961 All Star game played at the spanking new Candlestick Park. Miller always contended he hadn39t balked. No matter, that39s how it was scored Of course, many of the pre-retro parks are beloved by the fans. Dodger Stadium at Chavez Ravine is a great example. Woe to the visiting team fan at Dodger Stadium. Watching Koufax pitch at home was a delight, but the fans like the ambiance of the ball park itself. There are 37 more days before Orioles pitchers and catchers report. The recent events at Petrobras have taken the investment community by storm, and there is much discussion about when the right time is to get in. Bulls figure that given the reserves and the potential that the current price is cheap and will work out well in the long term despite the current scandals. I am usually an quotasset basedquot contrarian, but in this case I am not so sure. Let me give you my perspective: I39ve worked at both Devon and Kerr-Mcgee and had many friends at Chesapeake. To preface this post, I have never been a fan of quotmanagement guruquot books and find them to mostly be trash with little insight. That being said, an excellent book could be written about the resurgence of Oklahoma City and the contrasting fortunes of Kerr-McGee, Devon, and the one-time high-flying Chesapeake Energy over the years and the differing management styles at each company. Perhaps I should write it. However with the protagonist of this post now working for one of the antagonists the final chapter cannot yet be written. If you don39t want to read a few thousand words and just want the punchline it is this: Management and management culture matters, and Devon39s former CFO Jeff Agosta is one of the main reasons for Devon39s success whereas Kerr-McGee has disappeared and Chesapeake goes through recurring crises. Interestingly enough, Jeff is no longer at Devon and now works for former Chesapeake founder Aubrey McClendon39s new company, American Energy Partners. I will write more on that later on in this post. The story for me begins in the mid to late 199039s when I was working for my father39s money management firm. Chesapeake (CHK) was a high flying driller based on horizontal drilling in the Austin Chalk. Wall Street was heavily promoting CHK and it was one of the biggest quotmomentum playsquot on the street. My father didn39t believe it. Frankly, anyone with experience in the austin chalk knew that the decline curves were massive. This time it was supposed to be different because of CHK39s horizontal drilling. Horizontal drilling, however, wasn39t going to change the nature of the austin chalk as a play, it was just going to make the initial production bigger. The problem however was that these were new wells and there wasn39t much history. At the time getting well data was a pain. We had to subscribe to a Petroleum Institute service for around 10,000 dollars per year that sent us CD39s with county well data from Louisiana which was months out of date. Sure enough, the decline curves were massive. We talked to wall street analysts, and of course they didn39t care. CHK was everyone39s favorite. A few years later CHK almost went out of business as sure enough the decline curves were massive. That was the first time I heard the name Aubrey McClendon. The next time was the summer of 2003. I was sitting at my desk at the Zurich office of Kerr-McGee Luxembourg, (thank you IRS for creating such inefficiencies). I had very little to do. I was in Zurich for 2 months for a paid internship that was put together at the last minute because the employee whose job I was doing had a stroke and Kerr-McGee needed someone to take his place while he recovered. The head of the office was an American hired in 1999 (a rare outside the ranks hire). The rest of the staff was Swiss andor German. The European marketing team from the Chemicals unit (later spun off as Tronox) also shared these offices. European Chemicals marketing was run by a Kerr-Mcgee old timer who was one of the few still around from the Karen Silkwood days. The first sign that Kerr-McGee had issues was that I didn39t really have anything to do all day. By and large I was done with my job by 10am. In addition to my day job I was given a project to research the possibility of issuing euro-denominated bonds in Europe. The project didn39t take long. Other than that I had a lot of spare time. Someone in IT at the main office in Oklahoma City seemed to have the sole job of tracking my web surfing and blocking every site that wasn39t work or finance related. The Swiss like to take long lunches and usually have a few beers at lunch as well. A directive had come down from HQ that nobody was allowed to drink at lunch but my boss told us to do what I wanted as long as he didn39t see it. So, sometimes we would take 90 minute lunches by the seaside and have a couple of beers, but that still left the entire afternoon with little to do. I had brought a lot of textbooks with me to Zurich to study finance and economics but I burned through those pretty quickly. If I could do it all over again I would have spent the time learning German, although it was also when I first started to really study body language as I could not communicate verbally. It is really the subject of another post but from my time in Panama, Switzerland, Italy, Albania, Poland, etc. I have become somewhat of an expert in reading body language. Body language doesn39t lie. People do. I now like to sit in restaurants and watch body language. It is fun to spot which woman doesn39t like her date and just wants to get out of there as quickly as possible even vs. which guy is going to get lucky that night. I39m also good now at knowing when I am being lied to - although I have had a few spectacular failures in that regard. Back to Zurich: So I started spending my spare time looking for a permanent job. Simply searching quotenergy companies in Oklahoma Cityquot got by my IT censors and I quickly gathered up the names of all the big energies companies and their officers. By googling around the domain names you can always come up with the structure of corporate email addresses (i. e. firstname. lastname or whatever) because some employee somewhere has always used his or her work address to post on a random message board. So I sent out some emails to some Oklahoma City energy company executives. The emails read as follows: Hello, my name is Gordon Haave. I am currently working for Kerr-McGee in Zurich in the corporate Treasury department. Previously I have served as Vice-President of a 300 million money management firm and as the CFO of a 20 million residential construction firm. I am returning to Oklahoma City in August and am looking for a full time job if you have any available. quot Short and simple appeals work with some people and not with others. I got replies from both Jeff Agosta (then SVP of Finance and Treasurer of Devon) and Aubrey Mclendon (CEO of Chesapeake) Aubrey was very nice as everyone always says he is. We had a brief back and forth and after inquiring around the company he told me that there was nothing available but to stay in touch. Jeff responded basically with a quotyes we are looking for someone, come and see me when you get back to Oklahomaquot. That39s how I ended up working for Devon. However, I was still working at Kerr-Mcgee. Every day was frustrating as there was little to do, and everything I did have to do basically had zero value added. Let me explain: My primary job was ensuring the accurate cash forecast of Kerr-McGee39s North Sea oil and gas operations, and to ensure that cash balances were kept at a minimum so that they could be invested in time deposits. In the morning I had to make sure time deposits were properly received that were due that day, and in the afternoon all cash had to be swept up into new time deposits. These were often overnight or just 2-3 day investments. The process was based off of the weekly cash forecast which was stored on the Kerr-McGee mainframe and accessed by everyone via Citrix. The weekly forecast started on Monday at the operating units. The operators would have to forecast DOWN TO THE PENNY every single expenditure or receipt they knew about. At the end of the day Monday the information would go to one higher level up, where it would be compiled. It would then move on to one level higher up on Wednesday to a treasury analyst for that unit. On Thursday morning I had all of the information for every unit and would complete the overall spreadsheet which presumably someone reviewed on Friday. It was a pain-staking process that took the time of at least 10 people over the course of the week to do. And to what end Of course a Treasury department needs to be able to forecast cash, but down to the penny There were times where somewhere along the way the info would be recalled because someone let out an anticipated 500 expenditure. What difference did it make if 500 was invested one day or two days Ideally if you have the exact cash balance down to the penny you can invest better. For example, if you have 1 million dollars extra and you know you can invest it for and extra 4-5 days instead of just overnight you will earn more interest. But how much Enough to have 10 people working on the thing Enough to harass operating units into worrying about that instead of worrying about their operations Of course not. I once said something to my boss about it and his response was quotyou are lucky, when I first started here they were doing this by carbon paper and fedexed around. We only changed to spreadsheet because they couldn39t buy the carbon paper anymorequot. I was in a good position to learn many other things about the corporate culture. As the young American guy there by myself the chemicals sales force guys would take me out at night on their expense accounts when they passed through town and they expressed how hampered they were by the corporate culture. Also, at the time, Kerr-McGee was spending literally millions of dollars per year on outside consultants whose job it was to change the corporate culture. One of these consultants spent a week or so in Zurich and I went out to eat and have a few drinks with him a few times. I39ll spare you the details of the horror stories but his conclusion was pretty straight-forward: quotIt39s utterly hopeless. quot I don39t want to name names but I remarked to him once that a certain person in our division seemed to be the real brains of the operation, yet he was not the head of it and I was wondering why. The answer: quotBecause X joined the company two weeks later than Y 20 years agoquot. So let39s review what I learned about Kerr-Mcgee: A. A massive number of employees doing useless jobs. B. A culture where seniority is all that matters. C. The corporate tail wagging the operating dog. After Kerr-McGee it was on to Devon in Jeff Agosta39s unit. I ran the quotcash managementquot function which included the investment of excess assets as my primary job but I also performed as somewhat of an overflow worker for other corporate finance projects as needed. What was the corporate culture at Devon Well, it depends on what part of it you worked in. In accounting it was just as bad as as Kerr-McGee. There were massive, bloated staffs of people who did their job the way they did it and simply wanted it to stay that way and didn39t want anything to change. That didn39t really matter too much except that corporate expenses were higher than they should be and landowners would be pissed off because they got their checks late. More than a few times in social settings when telling someone I worked at Devon the response would be quotwhy can39t you send your checks on timequot Corporate finance, however was a lean and mean operating machine. We had less people performing the finance and treasury functions than Kerr-McGee had working on the weekly cash forecast - and we did a good job of it too. This was all under Jeff39s leadership and direction. How did the cash forecast work When I started there was already a cash forecast spreadsheet which I later revamped. Here is how it worked: We pulled production estimates from an existing database. We pulled gas and oil prices from Bloomberg and applied a discount to them for what Devon would actually receive for oil and gas sales. We knew corporate overhead data and when payroll was due, and we knew interest and swap payments already. As to the level of accuracy achieved it was pretty straightforward. The conversation went something lie this: Me: quotJeff, given interest rates and what we can do with extra cash in terms of investments (or lack thereof) and the manpower that we will have to expend in order to get a more detailed forecast it is cheaper to just leave an extra 100 million laying around than expend the effort to harass people so that we can do more detailed forecasts like Kerr-McGee does. Plus, we don39t have to harass people who have other things they are working on. quot And that was that. A rational and efficient decision was made, without regard to quothow things are always donequot and taking into account that there is no need to be harassing operating units. Not harassing the operating units was a theme that Jeff reinforced a few times. I recall one event when a decision was made by an operating unit to bid on some blocks off of Brazil. The email I got was basically quotWe have to have 40 million dollars in an account in Brazil in three daysquot. The 40 million wasn39t a problem - remember we always had more than that just laying around. The problem was opening the account. This is was after 911 and the government was imposing all sorts of new Know Your Customer rules on the banks. To open the account Bank of America wanted endless documentation that there was basically know way I could do within 3 days. In the end I just said to our representative at B of A quotlook, this is Devon energy opening an account for a Devon subsidiary, we have 120 accounts with you. This account need to be opening tomorrow. I will send you whatever documentation you want later, but this account has to be open tomorrow. If you don39t know your customer well enough to open the account then we will have to find someone who doesquot. He opened the account. At some point during or after this event I said to Jeff quotHey, these guys (the operating unit) really have to give us more heads up next timequot. Jeff39s response was quotIt is fine for you to send them an email asking them to give you a better heads up when they can, but always remember they are the one39s who make the money. We work for them, not the other way aroundquot. Meanwhile let39s get back to Chesapeake. Aubrey McClendon the well liked and flamboyant founder had his own management approach. I can39t speak too much to the internal culture as I was not a part of it, but Aubrey was generally highly regarded by his employees. The problem was as follows: He ran the company like it was his own as opposed to running it on behalf of the shareholders. Although it is difficult to quantify this was apparent by the massive amount of money that Chesapeake through around the community in what appeared to me to be one big dose of self-promotion. Chesapeake funding was all over Oklahoma City, and the news articles praising McClendon were legion as he achieved celebrity status. Companies need to distribute money in their communities from time to time for their long run success, but Chesapeake39s giving far outstripped anything Devon or Kerr-McGee was doing. I was constantly thinking to myself quotI wonder how any of this benefits shareholdersquot Later events that are quantifiable proved me correct that indeed the company was being run in his own interested instead of the interest of the shareholders. In short, McClendon has a sweetheart deal where, after shareholders paid to acquire land McClendon got an ownership stake of 2.5 of every well drilled. He had to pay 2.5 of the drilling costs. How did he come up with the 2.5 He borrowed against his interest in the wells. Here is the problem with that: 1. McClendon was competing with Chesapeake for access to capital. 2. Let39s say the price of natural gas goes down and Chesapeake needed to curtail it39s drilling or shut-in some wells. What decision should be made Well, if McClendon has massive personal interest payments to make on his personal debt, he suddenly has a conflict of interest with the company. McClendon of course denied any conflict of interest, but it is ludicrous to believe that shareholders ever would have approved such a situation had they known about it. One defense perhaps is that the board of directors (who represent the shareholders) knew, but this is the same board of directors that bailed McClendon out of his personal financial problems buy buying his private map collection from him and awarding him a massive bonus while Chesapeake39s own fortunes were in decline. In addition McClendon was using CHK employees to do personal work for him and also never disclosed that he had a hedge fund on the side which traded in the same energy markets that CHK did. In short, he ran the company on behalf of himself, instead of on behalf of the shareholders. To contrast this behavior to what I saw at Devon: One time a senior manager operating out of Houston donated 10,000 to a charity without prior approval. As Jeff relayed to me the manager was told quotthat is the shareholders money, either get it back or pay it back yourselfquot. All of this leads to an interesting situation: Aubrey McClendon is the last person in the world I would want to look after my interests as a shareholder. Jeff Agosta is the first. Now, Jeff works for Aubrey. In January 2018 Jeff was fired as the CFO at Devon. I don39t know the scoop and have not spoken to Jeff in 6 years, but as someone with more knowledge than I do tells me: quotHe fd up on a forecastreporting issue, plus he alienated virtually everyone who worked under him with his management style, it seems. quot I have no idea myself, but that he might have alienated people under him would not be a surprise. I for one liked working in his unit. With Jeff would always knew where you stood. If you did a good job you knew it, and if you did a bad job you knew it. Not everyone is like me however. Some people care more about the 5 minutes of pleasantries that need to occur when a conversation starts and need criticism of their idea in a roundabout manner. Jeff was not that guy. More importantly, I would bet that Jeff attempted to impose his efficiency viewpoint on the rest of the company and got a lot of pushback. American Energy Partners is said to be getting ready for an IPO. My advice: figure out who is really calling the shots on the finances. If it is McClendon then take a pass. If it is Agosta then go for it if you otherwise like the company and it39s valuation. So what does all this have to do with Petrobras In the end and after years and years of attempted reform Kerr-McGee called it quits. The stock had basically gone nowhere for 20 years and eventually the chemicals unit was spun off and the Oil amp Gas assets sold to Anadarko. The archaic corporate culture just couldn39t be overcome. In all companies the allocation of capital is incredibly important. The difference between Energy companies and many other companies is that the economic consequences few key decisions will be apparent in short order. Proctor and Gamble can make bad decisions and the result will just be a slow decline in overall market share over a long period of time - this is not the case with an energy company. Petrobras can have all of the reserves in the world, but if management and the corporate culture are no good shareholders will never realize a profit from it. On December 20, 2018, at 9:38am, Jeffrey Buckalew, a successful investment banker and pilot, departed Teterboro, NJ bound for Atlanta in his Socata TBM 700 turboprop along with his wife, their two children, a business associate and the family dog. By 10:05, they were all dead. The NTSB declared the probable cause(s) of the accident to be: The airplane39s encounter with unforecasted severe icing conditions that were characterized by high ice accretion rates and the pilot39s failure to use his command authority to depart the icing conditions in an expeditious manner, which resulted in a loss of airplane control. Happily, I wasn39t working that morning, but I worked that sector for 25 years and the controller who was working the aircraft when it went down is a friend of mine. The accident highlights a couple of issues that are highly relevant to trading. First, the threat of complacency which can lead to a failure to recognize that a dangerous situation is developing, and second, the need to take action to correct the situation immediately. We must be vigilant and nimble. This excellent video by AOPA39s Air Safety Institute gives a thorough discussion of the accident and its causes. I was particularly keen on the last two minutes or so (transcribed below ) and it39s insights. In the first paragraph, replace the word aircraft with quotsystemsquot and aviation and flying with quottradingquot and you can see what I mean. Sometimes experience harms more than it helps. Rather than making us more vigilant, it can lead to a sort of comfortable complacency, not only about the dangers we face, but about our own capabilities and those of our aircraft. Complacency is arguably aviation39s most common vice, and one of the hard truths about flying is that it39s sometimes punished with extraordinary severity. The pilot of N731CA was in the clouds for a total of approximately five minutes. Roughly two minutes passed between his first indication to ATC that icing was a problem and the beginning of the final plunge. It takes time for the human mind to spin up when suddenly confronted with a problem. It takes time to recognize that things have changed and process the idea that an extraordinary response is called for. All during that time, part of the mind is fighting against the new reality, arguing quotstay the coursequot. Two minutes isn39t much time, but it39s enough time. Enough time to make a decision, declare an emergency and reverse the climb. Or, just push the nose over and worry about ATC later. Or at least, that39s what we39d like to think. The truth of the matter, which is that two minutes really isn39t much time for someone who is surprised, conflicted and almost certainly frightened, is decidedly less comforting. Anatoly Veltman writes: Yes, there is an adage that biggest losses come immediately following biggest gains. It39s also possible that big gains may follow big gains. My explanation is that what brought the initial big gains was the increase in volatility. Gary Rogan writes: So if either big losses or big gains follow big gains what is one supposed to do after big gains Stefan Martinek adds: Theoretically, we should de-leverage and adjust for volatility (I assume our initial position was volatility normalized). Practically, doing nothing and ignore some vol. spike usually does not hurt as much as believed especially for long vol. الاستراتيجيات. Exitadjustment is therefore different if strategy does well in storms or if it is killed by storms. Some trading storms are good. The notion that the United States has had a two-party system over the last hundred years is largely a fantasy. This may be another successful schoolteacher fairy tale designed to discourage quotconservativesquot from having any patience with the minority party it may be simply part of the American notion that the two teams on on the field have an equal chance that is to be determined by quothow much they want itquot. Either way, the fantasy of equal competition does not fit the facts. The Republicans have only won the trophy once in the last hundred years - in 1928. That was the only time where the Republicans continued to control both houses of Congress as a member of their party was re-elected President. The results were these: Republican House margin of majority: 12, Republican Senate margin of majority (including Vice-President39s vote in the event of a tie): 10. The Democrats, on the other hand, have 4 Super Bowl rings: 1936, 1940, 1944, and 1964. Their first - Roosevelt39s 2nd election - was the biggest blowout: Democratic House margin of majority: 30, Democratic Senate margin of majority (including Vice-President39s vote in the event of a tie): 34. Even in the era of divided government and less than landslide elections, the drift has remained in favor of the Democratic party. 2008 election results - Democratic House margin of majority: 19, Democratic Senate margin of majority (including Vice-President39s vote in the event of a tie): 21 2018 election results - Republican House margin of majority: 17, Republican Senate margin of majority (deducting Vice-President39s vote in the event of a tie): 3 What interests me is the likelihood that the United States may finally have a genuine two-party system. If it does happen, it will be because the Republicans finally become what Grant planned for them to be 140 years ago - the party of the new Constitution that included the 14th Amendment. is may actually change. The Democrats have been the party of Federal executive authority since their founding whenever possible, they have looked to the White House to order the entire country to do what they wanted - i. e. buy Louisiana, chase slaves, regulate the sale of sick chickens, etc. During my lifetime, the notion that that the States who make up the Union have equal sovereignty suffered the same fate as Grant39s reputation as President. It ceased being taught in any law or other type of school, and the presumption of absolute Federal authority became universal. Now, to my delight and surprise, the idea equal sovereignties and rights of citizenship for the States and the Union has revived. People, even judges, have read the 10th Amendment and understand the meaning of its plain language. سوف نرى. I recently connected a turntable to my professional sound system with equalizers, subwoofers, and running two 1700 watt power amps. I have a collection of several hundred vintage vinyl records from the 60s on. I was amazed anew at how full and involving the analog sound is. You can hear the wood tones in the guitar of George Benson. It makes you feel like lying down and just listening to the music, or dancing. That just doesn39t happen with CD39s or digital content. The digital sound algorithms leave out some of the feeling and nuance of the sound. Boosting the bass does nothing but cover the lack of content in the other registers. Also, they vinyl has lasted for 50 years with excellent quality. The art on the covers is fascinating. Meanwhile, my cd39s have dissolved, the cases broken, and been transferred to hard drive and lacks the same fidelity. High drama in the SampP. Like a Dumas or L39Amour n novel. (who else writes adventure like this) monday change -30 tues change -26 wed change 35 thur change 36 fri change -20 prev week change -40 Perhaps this explains the movement up in Vix. It39s like a boxing match in the final round, or a tennis rally in doubles with all 4 players at net blasting at each other. What other sport situation A very interesting article reminding us that we can estimate the standard deviation of most of our data as the range4 or (b-a)4 where b is the highest and a is the lowest obse ration. This leads to many interesting augmentations. You can quickly calculate the significance of a result by 4u x n to 12 (range). I was led to this result by a very interesting 1980 Box on evolutionary manufacturing operations. I was amazed that the authors were so clear and precise about the statistics, but then I saw that the author was Box and Draper, considered two of the world39s leading statisticians. 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That39s how long it took to write Advanced Racquetball . the sequel to my best selling Complete Book of Racquetball that promised, forty years ago, this sequel. It39s 825 pages and covers every aspect of the game from sneaker to frontal lobes for Open to Pro players. It was a labor of love for 1000 hours in an Amazon sweat box cyber for 11 hours a day, seven days a week for the last three months, on top of a previous thousand or so hours writing earlier sections. There are over 400 photos including sequential strokes and serves. Personal interviews with 90 of the 30 most recent world champions. A full appendectomy. I decided to scuttle the title, and shrug like Atlas, due to the incompetence of the undeserving racquetball community. They are also a verbal rather than print page readers. My goal was accomplished in writing the book and listing it at Amazon. One other set of Miami eyes who has read the single copy in existence said, 39It39s very good, but too long for the racquetball mentality.39 I39ll give the single copy, like Diogenes, to the first deserving player I meet. I withhold it from the public and if you want to know why read Atlas Shrugged. We can soon expect to hear the mumbo about how if January is down the market is likely to be down for the year et al. How many times does this have to fail before it loses its impact. Rocky Humbert writes: Feel free to call this quotmumboquot 8212 but there are hundreds of millions, if not billions, of US stock market positions that will exit if the market closes today below the 1960-2000 level. I am not predicting today39s close and the probability of falling 40 spu points is always very low (hence betting on this outcome has lousy odds). However, I will predict with confidence that should these quotstopsquot get triggered, you will be rubbing your eyes next week at the much lower prices you will see. Hernan Avella writes: What happened with the idea you championed back in December about the wisdom of the common man, that poured 36.5 billion into stock funds on Xmas week, marking the biggest inflows on record as U. S. stocks surged to record highs. Are those the positions that are looking to sell today Enlighten us please. Rocky Humbert writes: The quotcommon manquot will do just fine. It39s the professionals who will be selling based on things such as this . Anton Johnson writes: Wondering about the self-promoting Mebane Faber and his recently launched ETF buisness, I found this value nugget: Cambria global value ETF (GVAL) return since inception (3-12-2018 till 1-28-2018) is 39The Cambria Global Value ETF seeks investment results that closely correspond to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Cambria Global Value Index8230The Index next separates the top 25 of these countries as measured by Cambria39s proprietary long term valuation metrics. The Index then screens stocks with market capitalizations over 200 million. The Index is comprised of approximately 100 companies.39 anonymous writes: Meb Faber likes to look at 12 month moving averages computed at the end of the month. For SampP we have: Weekly, at Blythe, CA High School through the 2000s, a frantic version of this blast over the school intercom for all to hear summoning me to put out another fire in the Severely Emotionally Disturbed classroom at the back of the campus between the 4-H pens of pigs, goats and cows and the broad irrigation canal. Once there, in the spartan SED room, the small group of eight edgy youngsters told how they had browbeat or attacked the sub fleeing the doorway at that second. I would answer, 39Everyone in Sand Valley where I live, and everyone throughout my travels, flies off the handle once in a while. The trick is to identify the cause and correct it. It39s the same process as fixing a racquet stroke, where I was a champion.39 Fortunately, as in racquetball where I flung my cover onto the court and was ahead 3-0 before the first serve, my reputation preceded me into this classroom. Sometimes I think the students rioted to summon me, as prison inmates stage food fights to break routine. The kids brightened to reveal the bizarre reasons for their misbehavior that had caused their banishment to this awkward class. First, I told them, 39We aren39t going to use the term SED around here. Labels create identities. You guys are as normal as me and my neighbors in Sand Valley. Next, the goal is to mainstream you back into the normal classes. Third, if you39re in here at your parent39s order to create a portfolio of being whacky in order to get on welfare for the rest of your lives, think again. There39s a long line of students wishing to replace you in this class. Fourth, my methods are unorthodox but effective. I39m not a schooled psychologist, but if you do your work, I39ll reward each daily lesson with a related story from the road.39 Their excuses were miserably true. Some were rising with the roosters at 5 am without breakfast to ride a bus for an hour from an outlying farm to the school, and arrived irritated. Or, their parents drank and hit them the night before. A couple were worried about being accosted after school, and showed secreted 10quot drill bits slid into their book spines. One albino had unrecognized photophobia. Another was dyslexic. Another painted his fingernails purple and talked with a lisp for attention. These were the campus hard luck cases lumped into one classroom, their last chance before expulsion, and I was their last hope. When you have someone over a barrel like this, life is actually pretty easy. I dimmed the harsh fluorescent lights, and we did jumping jacks, sit-ups and pushups for twenty minutes. Then I turned down the thermostat to cool the room, a la public airplanes to calm the passengers. I opened the day39s assignment from the permanent SED teacher, the gorgeous lady I39ll call Ms. Libda, who often was away at business meetings, and so her duty fell on me. She was talented, caring, a former Navy medic, cop, and prison turnkey. After their work was done, and the adventure story reward, I wrote up a detailed report on what had taken place and the progress of each student in mirror writing. Mirror writing reads from right to left, and early on in my subbing career the principal had called me into his office to explain why many of the students, especially the athletes, were seen reading their texts upside down. He had a boxing picture of himself on the wall from his youth, and I threw a mock left hook at his jaw, while justifying that if he had read print flowing right-to-left then his eyes would be quicker to have caught the jab, as well as the next butterfly, car or ball. My after class reports to the Ms. Libda were a hit, and one day she addressed me, 39The students like you, and so do I. I see you as a male version of myself.39 We commenced dating and she, in a mothering way, often slept in late after calling the school for a sub, so I could get a call on the same phone to report for work. The goals were met with success, the students stopped clawing wallpaper off the walls, were cordial to the visiting sheriff, no more suicide attempts, and the primary object to mainstream the students back into their ordinary classrooms. The most valuable lesson I imparted to my xenophobic students was on Small Town, America. 39That39s normal as she goes in Small Town, America39. Their explanation for everything is, 39We been here a hundred years, and we been doing things this way a hundred years.39 Hence the state motto, 39Be part of a group, take and give orders, obey.39 The solution, students, is to proceed with patience through your youth, and then strike out to new horizons. You can always take the beaten path back to Blythe. Ms. Libda finally took a job elsewhere, and I was hired by Riverside County to replace her full time. There was a huge boost in salary to 40,000 with full medical. I began anonymously donating 15 of my salary back to student lunches, good books, pupil doctor bills, and chessboards for the library. I had a great idea from One Flew Over the Cuckoo39s Nest in which the patient McMurray masquerading as a psychiatrist takes the other patients on outings from the hospital. Securing permission from the principal, who was now my pal from the boxing lesson, I took the SED classes on educational outings to the city library, prison, bowling alley, and for nature walks along the irrigation ditch that blocked their graduation into the real world. In the coming months, my classroom door was revolving like a barroom on a Saturday night with new students arriving as soon as the former were mainstreamed. Soon the backlist ran out, and the class dwindled to three students. One day, after being the full-time SED teacher for about six months, I was called during class by the Riverside school administration. The director politely informed, 39I see you have mainstreamed nearly all of your students back into their regular classrooms. تهانينا. We are letting you go.39 I laughed, cleaning the desk. I had worked myself out of a job The lesson is don39t be a square peg in a round hole without expecting consequence. Heed your inner calling, but be prepared to move on. I hit the trail to world adventure to have more stories to tell to a succeeding class. 1. Average returns on equities are, to pick a number at random, 7. But if business was untaxed that might become 10 and if sales taxes disappeared and fell to the bottom line, that might become 14. Over fifty years, the difference reinvested would be over 20x more capital and we could all take things easy. 2. The British government likes to take quotpayments on accountquot from its non-PAYE taxpayers, thus taking prepayments on tax due before the year end. With a 2 cost of capital and vast working capital resources, this seems somewhat ungracious behaviour. Unless perhaps it has been noted by the government that most small businesses fail under a vast burden of taxes, domestic and European regulations, import and export duties, etc. and like a retail forex broker who well knows all his Ma amp Pa clients will eventually liquidate under monstrous vig, in all cases novates client collateral as early as possible. 3. It has been noted that a handful of rich people control as much wealth as billions of poor do. But most of the world39s poorest people have no savings at all, and thus if you summate a partial set with its values chosen to be very close to zero and compare it to another set who39s numbers are not, you will obviously see a large inequality. You could just as validly say that a regular US citizen with 1,000 of savings has a thousand times as much wealth as someone in the Congo who is down to his last dollar, and present this too as being fetid and greedy. 4. quotThe 139squot per capita wealth is calculated as a capitalised mean sum, with the average net worth of quotthe 1quot in the US being around 15-20m. But every hundredth person you meet does not have a balance sheet close to that, as the mean and median are very different. Thus the media creates a perception of quotthe 139squot situation that is totally unrelated to reality. 5. It is a great shame that there are so many poor in the world. But what have the free markets wrought in this respect By the power law of the distribution of wealth, just Bill Gates39 and Warren Buffett39s wealth alone must represent a significant percentage of quotthe 1squot stash. It so happens that these two individuals have donated, or earmarked for the future, close to 100 of their accrued savings to philanthropic causes. Bill Gates is one of the most accomplished businessmen on the planet and he has thrown his labour, intellect and organisational skills in for free. In contrast, had they been taxed to the utmost on the way, might it be reasonable to expect that their funds would have dissipated across a variety of government departments of dubious efficiency 7. Indeed, if quotthe 1quot control around 20tr of the USA39s 60tr of wealth, and Buffett and Gates are packing 150bn between them, that39s already 0.75 of the dough being hotly debated that is in fact earmarked for charitable purposes. 8. If one continued this calculation all the way down the wealth tree, excluding capital that39s either pledged for philanthropic purposes or being reinvested in fixed capital in order to create better living standards for the population (something consistently hidden in the hedonic adaptation of inflation statistics), what percentage of their wealth do the megarich actually consume 9. Are the megarich not in fact spending most of their lives competing for their table ranking on the Forbes website, each download of which is worth about 0.001 cents Should we not be grateful for this self-deception on their and their no-doubt heavily plastic-surgeried wives and girlfriends behalves 10. These notes may or may not have been sponsored by the Koch Brothers. Gary Rogan writes: There seem to be at least two aspects to the quotgrowing wealth disparityquot: (a) To what degree the quotelitequot controls new wealth creation through illicitillegalimmoral means (b) To what degree the highly intelligenteducatedthose of quotproperquot disposition are able to earn more than the rest simply because they are better suited to thrive in today39s economy. Usually, the vast majority of those who talk about this subject of the quotgrowing inequalityquot have an agenda to capitalize on wealth redistribution rhetoric and want to attribute wealth inequality to the simple existence of capitalism, and have no intention to solve quotthe problemquot nor even care about it otherwise. Well, everything is going to hell. Russia is still a problem, Greece seems to be turning into a trojan horse, the European QE, if confirmed by the data, will be fuel to the fire otherwise wasted money. The real QE for Europe would be fiscal union, it is not clear which masochism perverse wants to continue to kick the can despite all that is happening. They are destroying, structurally and industrially, European nations. I think the Euro should yield against the next 23 months if will follow positive data, so I expect what happened from 15gen (hammer on European indices). Otherwise the will continue to parity, EUR 0.800.75 worst case. I think that pears are ripe in the US, so maybe sell the tops and put into treasury waiting for the second part of the year when better occasions are a possibility. Oil will rise in second part of 2018 (if not before). I think Macro decision are faster than fact, but there is nothing worse than to inject money in an economy unable to recover because it was managed by opportunistic nations (politicianbureaucrats) not willing to cooperate. Structurally, the QE will not have any improvement. It makes no sense to do austerity while the EU industrial system collapses and then six years later, they realized the error, try to revive the fortunes of the economy printing. The system to indebt nations and then manage them better, so loved by the IMF, seems to have become ingrained in Europe. My grandmother used to say, it was better when it was worse, and we were unaware of that, but she was right. width402 height268 I recently stumbled across the work of Peter Turchin, an evolutionary biologist, who is attempting to applying quantifiable scientific techniques to the study of history as part of a field known as cliodynamics. From the Santa Fe Institute39s blurb on it: The past does not repeat itself, but it rhymes, quot Mark Twain once said, a reference to the patterns of history, perceived anecdotally. Today, a new field is coalescing around the notion that historical patterns are, to some degree, measurable, and that the future can, also to some degree, be predicted. Researchers involved in the field call it quotcliodynamicsquot after Clio, the Greek muse of history. Scholars of human history traditionally have studied the past as a chain of idiosyncratic events, with each event a unique response to unique circumstances, says SFI External Professor David Krakauer. Historical fields such as paleontology have relied on collections of evidencemdashfossils, for examplemdashto draw inferences about the past. A few fields have made strides in approaching history as a science. In archaeology, for example, rigorous field survey methods have provided new, quantifiable information about the location, distribution, frequency, and organization of certain human activities. In population genetics, evolutionary outcomes are modeled as probabilities. Cliodynamicists would like to see the historical fields sharing methods among themselves and adopting approaches and theories from physics and other long-quantified fields. The tools of complexity science are now beginning to make the task tractable, Krakauer says. Mathematical and computational techniques such as agent-based models, power-law relations, and more classical differential-equation models are in several fields helping scientists develop new theoretical frameworks, for example. Although he did not perhaps agree with how reductionistic cliodynamics seems at first glance, I can39t help but see echoes of Giovanni Battista Vico39s New Science in this effort. I have to give credit for the sheer audacity of this pipedream. Turchin has published a book called Secular Cycles related to this topic and also maintains a website. I started to wade through his paper on analyzing the quotDynamics of political instability in the United States, 1780ndash2018quot also. It39s not without flaws, but is worth a look . The whole field may end up doomed to failure and hopefully won39t become another dismal science, but I thought it was worth a look, and was wondering if any other specs are familiar with it. If nothing else, it might cross pollinate with some ideas for trading. anonymous writes: This sounds VERY much like the premise behind Isaac Asimov39s Foundation Series, the books that got me hooked on his work and Sci-Fi in general. From the above wiki: The premise of the series is that the mathematician Hari Seldon spent his life developing a branch of mathematics known as psychohistory, a concept of mathematical sociology. Using the laws of mass action, it can predict the future, but only on a large scale. The CME and the CFTC are doing a great job at destroying the market ecology by exterminating the 39spoofers39 out of the futures markets. This clever species helps maintain the equilibrium of order flow by gaming liquidity asymmetries and thus keeping the population of naive momentum front-running strategies in check. It reminds me of the extinction and later reintroduction of the wolves in Yellowstone . Ed Stewart writes: I can39t see how spoofers are bad for anyone but the momentum front runners, as you suggest. There must be a quotgod givenquot right to jump in front of slower moving participants that we are not aware of. I39d love to know how the spoofing practice developed. My guess is it started as a counter-strategy to neutralize front-running before it became a source of profit Vinh Tu writes: And quottheyquot destroyed limit orders when they busted the trades during the flash crash. I guess front-running is the only virtuous and god-favoured strategy Hernan Avella writes: Vinh, I think the case with the limit orders is simply adaptation forced by the hft boys techniques. They have raised everybody39s game. What do ppl gain by advertising their intention in the order book. What it39s remarkable, is how long it took for other participants to start randomizing, splitting and using hidden orders in a more widespread fashion. But to your point, yes, speed is expensive and 39they39 try to recover those costs. anonymous writes: Famous energy trader John Arnold says : quotFront-running is profitable against traditional orders entered by humans. But with spoofers in the mix, the picture looks quite different: When the front-running HFT algorithm jumps ahead of a spoof order, the front-runner gets fooled and loses money. The HFT39s front-running algorithm can39t easily distinguish between legitimate orders and spoofs. Suddenly the front-runner faces real market risk and makes the rational choice to do less front-running. In short, spoofing poses the risk of making front-running unprofitable. Because spoofing is only profitable if front-running exists, allowing both would ensure that neither is widespread. quot The basic ideas are very similar to Hernan39s market ecology post. The one thing that the ministers told Carlos was that the Saudi Ambassador must not be harmed as the country was the Lynchpin of everything. The visit by Obama and the avoidance of the French by the US provides evidence 25 years later of the wisdom of Carlos. It39s during bizzards moreso than other storms that people suffer severe injuries. Orthopedic surgeons are usually quite busy after historic storms. Whether this one will meet the forecast remains to be seen. When I was on call at Shock-Trauma during the 1983 blizzard, we a sustained of blizzard conditionmdashwhiteout and wind. Some fellow in Frederick County (I was in Baltimore City) decided it would be a great time to take his snowmobile out for a romp through the storm. He missed seeing the tree that his snowmobile took on and lostmdashand he suffered multiple system injuriesmdashlacerated liver (it was half off the vena cava, and the surgeons were amazed he survived the helicopter trip), broken pelvis, broken femur, collapsed lung, brain hemorrhage, skull fracture, broken cheek and eye socket, 4 or 5 broken ribs, a broken knee cap, a broken wrist, a bunch of broken toes. and bilateral dislocated shoulders, not to mention extensive bruising. he received something like 25 or 30 units of blood. It was pretty bad. He walked out of the hospital 6 weeks later. Blizzards are dangerous. They39re not just big storms. AMERICAN SNIPER and THE HURT LOCKER aside, it39s relatively rare for a film today to exude l39air de macho accomplished. John Wayne bought the farm a while back. Van Damme and company are on hiatus. Liam is being re-TAKEN and re-re-TAKEN. But BLACK SEA comes close to being a tough-minded, suspense-driven masculine welcome basket to movie goers hungry for actors, not CG effects. For tough-minded scripting, withut PC rubbish leavening the text for the delicate micro-aggression-oriented. quotBlack Seaquot is that movie. Directed by Kevin Macdonald, the story starts in the dismissal of Robinson, a vet submarine captain, played by a terrific, corpus-hardened Jude Law, who walks with the bowlegs and slight caveman predisposition of a long-time swabbie. Sailors on land look always slightly untrusting of the ground beneath them, and manifest a wide stance in case the terra become not-so-firma under them. He39s being excessed by a maritime salvage company that is dry-eyed about its seamen, and not given to watches and lifted-pinky farewell parties. Some 70 years ago, a German U-boat laden with 40 million or so in gold was lost somewhere in the Black Sea. Recovering it is a scheme Law and his close mates come up with to generate money after they39ve been cashiered without much of a envelope. Don39t let the door hit you on the way out. Outfitting the old sub they are given by a go-between, Daniels (Scoot McNairy) to accomplish the recovery of the gold bars means hiring a roughneck crew: half Russians, half Brits. Much of the dialogue is in untranslated Russian, but when there are subtitles from the swarthy, often taciturn Russkies, they are mouthing wisecracking or typically no-bull grit the audience laughs with, though the British naveys have no idea about. The movie might well gain if they were to subtitle the British dialogues, since they are fast, guttural and often below the obvious comprehensible threshold. The opening credits feature a montage of Stalin, WWII at sea with Germans and Russians in grainy perspective, and on land, with a wash of blood drenching the screens top to bottom. These BW and aged-brown photos and footage set the scene for the coming hours of risky scrimmage against Russian fleets, inter-ethnic and internecine pile-ons, ever-present perils of being leagues deep in a Sargasso of oceanic dangers and unpredictable fails. And a stunning betrayal even the savviest could not swallow. RobinsonLaw runs the Russian diesel sub, grizzled and believable. There is a young guy, 18, Tobin (Bobby Schofield) who39s a last-minute hire, aboard for lack of one of the experienced submariners, and he both grows with the part, learning the baffling wheels and pressure gauges mostly from the Russian orders, grunts and directional hand-languagemdashas well as from the fatherly interest taken by Law in him. It is a humanizing affection thatndasheach time it is exhibited in the midst of crises of increasing severitymdashmakes you aware of the subtlety of Law39s workmdashoften, such men have scant room for affectionate care of anyone, let alone newbies they are stuck with in battle conditions. The Russians, superstitious and tough, call the young man dragooned into being their 12th, derisively, The Virgin. Men of the sea don39t think it propitious to travel with a virgin. (In our experience amain, sailors and such high-risk adventurers do not take kindly to women traveling with them in any capacity, eithermdasheven disguised as so-so effeminate men, with breasts squooshed.) We see Robinson39s gauzy flashbacks to his once-happy family, gone consequent to his career choice. In such circumstances, there is usually a split unequal in the divisions of the eventual haul, should they manage to find the sunken sub and extract the gold. But Law39s skipper knows the men are all working equally hard, all under equal risk, and he rules the gold is to be divided equally among all the men, leading to no small squalls of rage, envy, grumbling and dissatisfaction. The cinematography is fine, managing to convey the claustrophobic and ancientness of the craft, but capturing the man to man to man interactions in life and death encounters. Viewers are gripped with each hair-trigger decision and crisis. The story, taut as it is, is something of a relief, coming at a time of Angelina Jolie39s harrowing but true UNBROKEN, Hawking39s crippled presence in THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING, and Turing cerebral, aristocratic IMITATION GAME. It39s about the recovery of millions of dollars39 worth of undiscovered gold, not existential catastrophe and civilizational doom. It39s a man39s movie, a relieving movie, like a trou Normandmdashit clears the too-brutal menu of realia from the average filmgoer39s palate. It is a tense, manly engagement, revealing how men on their uppers handle cooperation, fear, competition for top dog, and 8230 prime in such cases, greed. However, certain dogs in certain countries, depending on the people that influence them, in one month turn from angels to snarling demons. I learned a lot in the past seven months fighting about eight dog packs of 5-10 animals each by being surrounded by them all snapping within four feet ndash front, back, and either side. The best thing to do is to back into a corner. Otherwise the fastest alpha will sprint around and try to hamstring you by biting in the rear. It39s impossible to watch 360 degrees, so if one is encircled without any plan or mental rehearsal, blood is sure to flow. Yours. It39s exactly the same technique I watched on a National Geographic film of packs of 6-10 wolves each taking down caribou, deer, elk or even bison in Alaska. Unless the prey can outrun the predators (not me any more), or back into a corner so there is no real side or rear attack, or grab a weapon, then one is at the mercy of the canines. This never happened to me, though I was bitten biweekly by the Peru Amazon street dogs in various haunts where I walk. The two primary fighting techniques were to pick out the alpha (usually the biggest male), and charge it ignoring the attempted nips from the rest. Once you kick the alpha in the teeth and he whines, the rest retreat. In the common case of the fastest dog running around end to get behind you, I always turn and immediately chase it trying to kick it. You need to get to it fast because as you turn to face it the rest of the pack rushes your heels. That dog is the fastest, usually the bravest, and once it zips off the rest will follow its lead away from your body. Once I got these strategies down, I actually looked forward to the afternoon or night workouts of fighting off the packs after a long stint at the 39office39, and it was restful before going to bed. Sad to say for a veterinarian, I resorted to psychological warfare to turn the tide to keep from going psychologically rabid myself. I knew the dog alpha of each of the eight packs in a blink at a block39s distance it was usually the biggest male, but nearly as often the stupidest which is to say most fearless, like pit bulls and bulldogs. My psych warfare was to stalk them during their sleep, especially during a night rainstorm, and kick them directly in the cranium. If you kick in the eye, ear, nose or teeth it can cause permanent damage, but I only wanted to establish myself as their dominant. My foot made hard contact about twenty times over the months with the various sleeping alphas, as hard as football punts, but their heads are so hard that it was like kicking a 8quot diameter rock. I alternated feet over the weeks waiting for the soreness to go away. I have no toenails left on either of my big toes from this. Then the psychological part comes into play ndash a hard head kicked sleeping dog awakes instantly and instinctively turns and bites at the foot. There39s a split second to kick a second time with the same, or better, the opposite foot, and about one second after your first kick the animal registers pain, the eyes dull, and it withers off yelping in pain with a tucked tail. Now is the time to follow it through the rain for blocks, not letting it lie down, rest or sleep for about thirty minutes. It39s easier than you think because every alpha returns to the same spot after a few minutes, so I just lay in wait, as they have done with me, and keep them awake and moving. It39s a combination of pain and sleep deprivation, and after a few nights of this, without fail, the alpha will no longer lead the pack in attack. Instead, when it sees me coming, it lowers the head in a cowering gesture and sulks off, followed by the rest. That39s the time to be on the alert for attacks from street people, who live like them, and empathize in bands. I know this from hundreds of encounters with the same packs in the past few months in the Amazon where the dogs have turned nasty with a sudden rise in consciousness of the people who now treat the dogs like second, instead of equal, citizens. These are the techniques to beat fallen canine angels. And they worked on people too. Pitt T. Maner III suggests: These high frequency deterrents called zappers work fairly well and could be easily shipped to Peru. At least it would make an interesting study. Marion Dreyfus writes: When I rented a house on a hilltop at End of The World, Zimbabwe, baboons made increasingly aggressive encroachments toward me and the house. I remember saying to the park ranger, who came and shot the baboons dead: quotOnce they are no longer afraid of people, they will rip your face off. We must kill them to keep that from happening. quot Andy writes: A recent study on Montana and Wyoming data indicates that killing wolves leads to increased depredation of farm livestock. One theory proposed is that shooting the alpha breaks the discipline of the pack and leads to more independent wolf breeding pairs. These rogue lone attackers are more likely to predate livestock than an alpha led pack. The researchers did not find a drop in the depredation until gt25 of them were destroyed, which corresponds to their population39s rate of increase. The idea for a rancher is to avoid killing the alpha unless he can and will take out more than 25 of the population of the wolves. Tonight I went for my usual 5k walk. I plugged in my ear phones and hit my Pandora app and had to decide between my stations. I was in the mood for some rock, so I choose the appropriate station, turned the volume to the right level and set off my journey. About 34 of the way through my walk, I was heard a special treat. The studio demo version of the Lynyrd Skynyrd39s quotFree Birdquot. Now, I39m sure most, if not all, of you are familiar with that Free Bird. It is, IMHO, one of the 3 greatest rock songs of all time (the other two being Layla and Stairway to Heaven). But I had never heard the studio demo version before. What is unique about this particular song is how different, yet similar, it is to the album version or the live version (I prefer the live version8230.quotplay it pretty for Atlantaquot). Free Bird starts out as a ballad, but then, kicks into high gear with the famous 1970s style guitar jam. When the studio demo version kicks into high gear, it starts out with the screaming lead guitar for a few moments8230then the lead guitar stops, and all you hear for the next few minutes are the rhythm guitars. Anyone who knows Free Bird know that lead guitar jams long and hard for at least 5 minutes straight. It is an unmistakeable 5 minutes of classic rock guitar licks that anyone with even a passing appreciation of classic rock will know and recognize. But on the demo version, the quotjamquot portion is mainly rhythm guitars for almost the entire time. What was very interesting to me is that even though there were only rhythm guitars playing for most of the song, in my head, I could not help but hear the lead guitar8230even though they were not there. I tried very hard to concentrate on the rhythm guitars and appreciate what I was hearing. Heck, I sorta played in garage band in my teens and I played the rhythm portion of Free Bird many times quotback in the dayquot. But no matter how hard I tried, my mind forced me to hear the absent lead guitar. Listening to this demo version of Free Bird got me thinking about the markets and my investing strategies. How many things happen around me that I just assume are there8230.but really aren39t8230..whether in my life as a father or as an investment adviser When I vet money managers to place my clients money with, how much I am superimposing (is that the right word) what I think I should be hearingseeing over what is really going on When are there subtle (or not so subtle) changes that I miss because the meme playing in my head tricks me into hearingseeing what I expect to be there I39m going to refocus myself to see if I39m really hearing what I think I39m hearing8230.or whether there are some missing lead guitar illusions that are clouding my judgement. I pose this question to the group: How might one go about doing that In the meantime82308230..here39s the YouTube link to the demo version of the Free Bird. Try and listen to it without hearing the absent lead guitars(also, bonus points if you spot the difference in lyrics): And to give some context to those that don39t know the song, here39s the album version of the same song. And I39d be remiss if I didn39t include my favorite version of the song (play it pretty for Atlanta). And just because it39s so tasty, I39ll throw in a little semi-obscure Skynyrd hit: Curtis Lowe Leo Jia writes: Reality or illusion I like to study the topic, and learn how to tell the difference or whether there is a difference. One believes something to be real when the 5 senses send signals to the mind and the mind says thus it is real. That is what reality means to most people. What if one39s 5 senses were altered The mind then has no way to tell. Think about virtual reality. Though the current technology is not fully there to truly alter the 5 senses, it demonstrates how the mind determines reality. Actually, the concept of virtual reality itself tells that there is not a real line between reality and illusion. It is all mixed together. Do we live in the world or does the world exist within oneself I am more inclined to the latter. Scott Brooks writes: Great points, Leo. I like illusions as well. My youngest son is into magic and illusions and does a pretty fun show for kids birthday parties. Even though I know how the illusion works, it is still fascinating and fun. But I39d like to take it a step deeper. I know when I39m being tricked when watching my son or a Penn and Teller show. But what about when I have no idea that I39m being deceived8230.or even deeper, when I39m the one doing the deceiving, and I39m both the deceiver and the mark (i. e. self deception). I39d like to know how I can clear my head of those times. But8230..how do I know what I don39t know that I don39t know Rocky39s Ghost writes: Excellent post, Scott Thanks for sharing. Rocky believes that, when speculating (as distinct from investing), more important than seeing one39s own ghosts, is seeing everyone else39s ghosts. For example, in his early days, Rocky would occasionally find bona fide arbitrages in the options markets. However, the ability to monetize the arbitrages relied on OTHER PEOPLE also seeing the arbitrage and closing it. If you are the only sane man, you will likely go bankrupt long before others realize that you are the only sane man. Or, put another way, when the lunatics are running the asylum, it pays to trade as a lunatic 8212 while remaining mindful that they are indeed lunatics. Now where did Rocky leave his bottle of Clozapine All the testing I have done on stops indicates they work exactly as you would expect. They reduce risk and they also reduce expected return. Sometime they reduce the return to breakeven or negative in which case its better off just not to trade. In other cases they eliminate bankruptcy risk and allow for some return, but not the expected return you get without stops. It seems to fit right in with EMT, CAPM and practical ideas on markets regarding risk and return. If you are selling disaster risk, you expect to be paid for it. Ralph Vince writes: Or, expressed in terms of their effect: Total Return (A2 - V)(Q2) - 1 Where A Average return per trade (expressed as a multiple, i. e. 1.0 return) V Variance in the A39s Q total number of A39s When stops reduce V more than they increase A2, it pays to use them. I suggest conducting tests on this, it is far more revealing (in terms of the distribution of the A39s) then meets the (rolling) eye(s) when looking at the simple equation. It can be interesting to open up a quote list and view the prices with a mindset that you haven39t looked at the market in months or years. Oil here, bonds there, etc. And then process your initial reaction. The loss of a nail caused the loss of a war. It all starts with the horrific having two positions on opposite sides at same time. Worse yet is the use of mental stops with the idea that the broker can39t read your mind. Andrew Goodwin writes: Voice brokers know the locations of the stops and the times when they will make margin calls or force liquidations. The broker does not need to read your particular mind to know the levels that once hit will create more trading activity. Mental stops fail because a broker can extrapolate the actionable levels from the inside view of the collective levered positions and stops given by other clients. Bejan39s basic premise is that everything in nature is a flow. There are the obvious flows of things like water (rivers, blood) or air (lungs, air distributions systems), etc. In addition, he discusses flows of stress, for example, in the arrangement of the limbs on a tree, or the flow of animate mass, e. g. when a herd of animals runs or school of fish swims. His premise is that living systems are continuously changing and adapting their configuration to maximize the quotcurrents that flow throughquot them. Even the building of the Egyptian pyramids, he argues, represents the flow of stones from a broad area to a single point (the pyramid). Here quotlivingquot systems (both animate and inanimate, such as rivers or pyramids being built) are constantly evolving and changing their configuration. When a system stops reconfiguring its flows, it dies: a dried-out river bead, dead animal, or completed pyramid receives no further maintenance, i. e. there is no more reconfiguration when something is dead. Here is a Q amp A on the concept of Constructal Design by a Forbes reporter and Bejan that has things described in less technical terms than his paper. In terms of applying these concepts to trading, it seems to me that the obvious entity that flows is money. One concern that I have, however, in adapting Bejan39s ideas to a trading model is that, in the flows that he is describing, there is always a driving force from high to low: gravity pulls water down a landscape, a pressure differential drives air in and out of the lungs, a disturbance or threat forces animals to run in the opposite direction. As a result, all of the flows that he is describing are one-way, or unidirectional. This central to his entire theory, as the opposite behavior is prohibited from the Second Law of Thermodynamics: heat does not move from cold objects to hot on its own, rivers do not flow uphill, air does not come out of the lungs when the diaphragm expands to reduce the pressure in the lungs to draw air in, dropping the broken pieces of a coffee cup on the floor will never result in re-assembled cup, etc. Thus it would seem that a critical element in adapting Bejan39s ideas for trading will revolve around describing a driving force for the flow of money. This is really your expertise far more than mine, but let me start the dialog by suggesting that the driving force for money is the perceived potential for money growth (PPMG). 39Perceived Potential39 here implies that there is an opportunity to make a profit from an investment, but that the outcome is not necessarily guaranteed (think of Enron and Bernie Madoff). Reconfiguration, also a key tenant to Bejan39s ideas, happens with the flow of money from one instrument to the next. If we now draw the analog of a river basin, and that high PPMG is analogous to a low point in the flow of water over a landscape, then it can be seen that money will flow from regions of low potential (elevated areas, mountainsides) to regions of high potential (low areas, valleys). The lower the elevation, the more rapidly money will flow into it. What complicates the analysis is that PPMG is a dynamic quantity. A company can be very profitable at one point in time (Kodak, General Motors, Blackberry), and thus have considerable growth potential, but over time, its growth potential can change. This is analogous to the river basin landscape changing constantly in elevation, and having the flow adjust accordingly. This does happen in nature as well, of course, both slowly (Colorado RiverGrand Canyon) or quickly (earthquakevolcano). Such a time-varying landscape would be important to include in a trading model. I think that the above would be a bare minimum to implement the ideas that Bejan is putting forth. I did do a quick search to see if people were using these ideas for trading (in particular) or financeeconomics, but I did not find much. This is not a surprise: Bejan39s ideas are new and different and thus will take some time to permeate to other areas. This, in itself, is an opportunity to seize the advantage. The risk, is, of course, that the ideas may not have significant utility in trading to upset the state-of-the-art now in place, and thus will not pay off after time spent trying to integrate them. This is the risk of adopting any new technologyidea, I suppose. Anyway, there you have it: my rather disjointed ideas on the matter. I would be interested to see if Bejan39s ideas could prove to be of utility for trading. Jon Longtin, Ph. D. P. E. Professor Department of Mechanical Engineering 159 Light Engineering Bldg. State University of New York at Stony Brook Stony Brook, NY 11794-2300 QEe (QE euro) seems to be moving forward. So why did gold, which has had some strength over the past month, not budge at the news the way currencies did anonymous writes: The theory I am working on in my head and was hoping to have time to write about tonight is as follows: QE depends upon a central bank quotcartelquot all agreeing to do it in unison and or in staggered phases. The cartel allows them to get away with this absurd policy without immediately wrecking the currency as compared to other currencies they don39t seem to be devaluing. Switzerland broke the cartel. This means that the future of QE is in fact in jeopardy and will be more limited than otherwise. anonymous writes: Isn39t that the path off all cartels of gt 1 players (Debeers), Look at OPEC post 1974. Like the prisoner39s dilemma, the quotcartel participant, quot game would call for a certain, upside price where the first member jumps ship, with a phony justification for their greed trumping the purpose of the cartel. anonymous replies: Yes of course. Only in this case instead of restricting the supply, the deal was to expand the supply. In the old days when Kuwait broke from the cartel and cheated it brought oil down more than just by the amount of Kuwait39s extra production because once one member of the cartel cheats everyone else is going to. It39s the same thing here. Once SNB broke, others will be tempted to as well. This isn39t talked about in the press because of the insane and incorrect notion that your currency going up is somehow a bad thing, so the mainstream all think that the Swiss are somehow hurting themselves. Alston Mabry writes: But the alt version is that they weren39t playing along because their EUR purchases were putting upward pressure on EUR, counter to ECB39s strategy. anonymous replies: What ECB, US, and Japan would have wanted is for the SNB to devalue along with them. SNB wasn39t going to do that. Now, all of QE depends on the big lie that you are not really printing money and not really devaluing the currency. Any time someone says quotyou39re printing moneyquot the response is met with quotyou just don39t understandquot followed by a description of the complicated process of QE and how it39s not really printing money. But the fallback position for the QE39ers is quotlook, there39s no inflation (no consumer inflation. it39s in assets) and quotthe currency isn39t being devaluedquot. The SNB39s peg kept the ECB being able to claim they weren39t destroying the currency. The SNB undoing of the peg reveals that the emperor has no clothes and they are, in fact, going to destroy the currency. Alston Mabry responds: It may be true that claims were made about the EUR on the basis of the CHF cross. But I find compelling the narrative that Mario called up Thomas Jordan and said quotlook, unless you39re willing to print tens of B of extra SFrs a month, you39re not gonna be able to keep up. quot And Jordan, knowing that technically the SNB could do it but politically internally couldn39t, said quotyou39re rightquot and they dropped the cap. The RSP (equal-weighted) SampP index ETF is well-known. Less known is the RYE (equal-weighted energy sector ETF). It has only existed since about 2006. Equal-weighted ETF39s give a larger weighting to smaller-capitalization stocks and, to the extent that individual stocks approach zero, they engage in the Rocky pastime of quotscaling down to oblivionquot. That is, If cap weighted indices quotride the trend, quot equal-weighted indices sell the winners and add to the losers on each rebalancing. Might anyone have some insights about whether such a practice is inherently superior or inferior over time And especially for a (distressed) sector index Kora Reddy writes: But the academic literature suggest otherwise: quotequal-weighting is a contrarian strategy that exploits the quotreversalquot in stock pricesquot (see this pic) . Except in Australia, equi-weighted outperformed the cap-weighted in major countries. Gordon Haave writes: I wrote about this 6-7 years ago when the first Wisdom Tree stuff came out and they were talking about how equal weighted was superior to cap weighted and showed the back-tested numbers. All they were really saying is that quotover time small caps beat large capsquot which isn39t exactly news. To call a equal weighted index and quotindexquot is itself misleading. A cap weighted index is quotthe marketquot or some approximation thereof. Theoretically every single market player could go passive and be in it. You can39t do that with an equal weighted index (or at least not without distorting prices). As to your idea of how they have to double down on the loses that is somewhat limited by the fact that once the name falls out of the index it is dropped. Larry Williams comments: Along that line Our work shows it is better to invest equal dollar amounts vs equal share amounts Gibbons Burke adds: I know a fund which used to invest 90 of client stake in SPX via SPY. A couple of years ago they switched to 10 equal dollar investment in each of the nine sector select spdr ETFs, with the intent of rebalancing to equal dollar allocation annually. They found, in testing, the strategy provided an average of 200 bps of boost each year over the cap-weighted all-SPY investment. anonymous writes: Regarding a depressed sector, is there any truth to the adage: quotBuy the stock that has gone down the least, and also the one that has gone down the mostquot. The strong stock will come back smartly and the oversold weak stock will come up from being smashed on a higher percentage then the middle of the pack. So if this is true you could design your own basket of strong stock leaders in the depressed sector mixed with oversold beaten down stocks that pass a screening survival test. Erich Eppelbaum adds: Theoretically speaking, re-balancing a portfolio by using the winnings to buy more of the losers is at the heart of the only portfolio selection methodology that I know of that mathematically guarantees to asymptotically outperform the best stock included in the portfolio (See Thomas Cover39s Universal Portfolio seminal 1991 paper): pdf link. I don39t know if in real life the portfolios resulting from this methodology are inferior or superior over time to those created by rebalancing based on allocating more to the winners (such as a market cap weighted portfolio) I would assume that any result would depend heavily on the rebalancing costs and slippage (the liquidity of big vs small stocks matter, especially when trying to push size), and I would assume that the slippage incurred in a market cap weighted portfolio would be less than that incurred in a equal weight portfolio (less small company shares to buysell). In reference to a previous post, another thing to consider is that perhaps there are many effects at play other than the small-cap quotmore-risk-more-rewardquot effect. For example, a sell-the-winners-buy-the-losers methodology could be profiting partly by say the volatility harvesting effect described by Claude Shannon . This brings up another question: The volatility harvesting effect becomes greater as the volatility of the portfolio39s underlying stocks increases. In the stock market, volatility usually increases when the market falls. Could this mean that an equal weightedrebalanced portfolio would outperform a market cap weighted portfolio during bad times and would the opposite be true during good times Would be interesting to test8230 I make an unapologetic forecast that by Friday, the EU thumb-sucking backscratchers in the markets will realize that Draghi must resign. The emperor has no clothes. Hello USDEUR parity. Stefan Martinek writes: My unapologetic forecast is that USDEUR will go below parity and somewhere around 0.6-0.8 German voters will decide to leave the party. Euro is too strong for weak members, and too weak for strong ones 8212 it does not fit anybody. Political will will change and the path of least resistance will change as well. Nothing dramatic will happen at that point. The world will function as usual, Schengen area will stay in place, winter resorts in Alps will be nice and functioning. Most forecast are usually wrong 8230 The Swiss National Bank (SNB) in a way played a good game of 3 Card Monty the past few years with market participants. The winning card was where the rate was going to be. On September 6, 2018 the SNB set a peg for the EuroSwiss rate at 1.2 when prevailing market rates where approximately 1.1, a depreciation of the Swiss Franc of about 9. Between September 6, 2018 and January 15, 2018 the EuroSwiss rate traded between 1.20 and 1.2650, a roughly 5 range. On January 15, 2018 the SNB removed the 1.2 floor and at the extreme the EuroSwiss market rate went close to .8500, a move of about 30. Who played the game Who controlled the cards Who were the shills I could not help but recall my own adventures in 3 Card Monty and loss of a 50 bill as a student playing Holden Caulfield in Times Square circa 1983. What trading lessons might there be in the move by the SNB and subsequent moves in markets How can these lessons be embodied to provide a future playbook of offensive and defensive plans Following some delirium from trading the markets the past few days some clarity came to mind on some runs the past day or two. First, some empathy to all have may lost in the market this past week. One close friend of many years described the feeling just 30 minutes after the SNB decision by saying quot I feel like I just got my leg blown off, I can barely think straightquot. 10 rules, lessons, and examples I have found effective and illustrative. 1. Find and trade markets where your edge is the greatest. 2. Avoid markets were the probability of rule changes and lack of transparency is present. 3. Think of and imagine market scenarios others fail to. 4. Fundamental macroeconomic forces will ultimately prevail. 5. Trading time frames and profit objectives though must coincide with what the market is giving you at any one time. 6. Quantify risk with a multidimensional perspective, not just by one or two measures such as VAR or a price stop. 7. Learn from history. Jay Gould and his attempts to corner the gold markets in the late 186039s. The Russian default of 1917 and 1998. The European Rate Mechanism break up. The Tequila crisis of 1994. The Asian financial crisis. 8. Be deadly serious, as Gichin Funakoshi said quotYou must be deadly serious in trainingquot. If you have a position make it a meaningful size and monitor it carefully. I recall many comments from fellow traders the past few years saying something like quotI am long EuroSwiss just to have some on but not really watching it. quot 9. Define and use a trading methodology that incorporates a process and framework that works for you. Inclusive in this should be a daily routine that includes diet, exercise, family time, etc. 10. Seek out catalysts for CHANGE in markets. Where are the forces, in a Newtonian like law of motion, building up the greatest to cause a CHANGE and movement in markets What further elaborations and examples might there be Stefan Martinek writes: I was thinking about it recently. Great list. I would only add: (a) Be prepared that liquidity in any market can disappear regardless of historical data or experience (b) Mind counterparty risk. Anatoly Veltman writes: Excellent lessons from John. The dilemma here is of common variety, though. Similar to an individual smaller stock: you39re either an insider, or a mark. In case of the SNB last few years: you were either in bed with the devil, or you were exposed to a chance of a -100000 annualized loss on any given random day My recollection of the marketing pitches for retail focused FX platforms was that they had some parallels to the bucket shops described by LeFevre, particularly one of them who advertised that one of your account features could be quotno margin calls. quot If a position went against you by a particular threshold, the broker would automatically close it out, so you would have no quotsurprises. quot anonymous writes: FXCM stock (a listed US company) is indicated down 75 this morning. They issued a statement that the CHF move quotgenerated negative equity balances owed to FXCM of approximately 225 million. quot As of 93014, their stated equity book value was 262.7 million (source: Bloomberg) 8212 so if their book value is real 8212 then this particular problem can be contained. Interactive Brokers stock is indicated down 10 this morning. They have made no public statements so far. But as we39ve seen time and again, broker-dealers rely on customer confidence and should a large number of customers start withdrawing collateral, this could spiral. Hence silence isn39t golden. Ed Stewart writes: A few things about IBKR. First, is is a much more highly capitalized than financial statements at first suggest, as only 15 of the company trades on the exchange, the rest is owned by managers and (mostly, if i recall 75) by CEO Peterffy. As of the last quarterly report, excess regulatory capital stood at 3.25B. SampP credit rating A - Stable, zero long term debt. Anyone who has traded there is aware that relative to other brokers they are very conservative on margining issues, etc. Also, they don39t have the business model of bucketing all of the trades on their FX platform like most retail platforms do. The IB FX ecn mostly allows IB customers to trade with other IB customers and other banks, though they are also a market maker there. In other words it is a much, much stronger business than the crappy retail FX companies. The other issue that is hitting the company recently (hurt their results last quarter and almost certainly this quarter) Is that they keep their equity in a basket of 16 currencies that they call the GLOBAL, so they are getting hit by the strong dollar. I could be wrong I think a currency peg blowing up is the kind of thing their risk department and peterffy would identify as a risk and substantially mitigate, especially if they had retail traders trading in masse against the peg the way the other forex platforms had. This is based on my reading most of Peterffy39s writing and conference calls over the last few years, I could be dead wrong. If there is a bad quarter out of this but the damage is not too bad I think it might end up a solid buying opportunity. It was my largest stock holding in tax deferred accounts till yesterday when I dumped most of it. Garrett Baldwin adds: Global Brokers NZ has failed and Alpari U. K. is insolvent. anonymous writes: What am I missing Why should a retail broker go under because a currency moved Were they trading against their customers as opposed to just executing orders Anatoly Veltman writes: If they don39t call for margin, they end up owning position. How could they do anything with a position thru the entire initial bidless 20 gap They obviously did rush to liquidate on the small bounce and that39s how the new low was made (look up intraday chart) 83 years ago. It39s a very good read, and appropriate for the time, but government interactions in the grain markets, wars, and international trade have rendered much of this obsolete. Still, it39s a good picture of the level of scholarship that was applied to the wheat markets 83 years ago. Much has changed from then to now, but one thing never changes. The best and brightest of any generation will always drill down, and try to find a way to beat a single market. 1. The Swiss franc is up about 17 this morning. This is unprecedented in recent history. That is a BLACK SWAN. A BLACK SWAN is an event that you have not read to be predicted on Zero Hedge or anywhere else. This cannot happen without reverberations 8212 and could be destabilizing 8212 and volatility inducing in unexpected places. 2. This could be the ultimate no-confidence vote in the Euro currency. 3. It makes Bitcoin39s move of 23 yesterday look quaint. anonymous writes: The most obvious conclusions to draw: 1) Further downward pressure on the Euro currency 2) Further downward pressure on global yield curves 3) Further loss of confidence in central banks More derivative thoughts to consider: a. Impact of forced liquidation of short CHF trades and potential subsequent reduction in risk and positions b. Impact on CHF funding trades in places like Hungary and Poland c. Impact on Swiss economy given where the currency and rates settle d. Impact on SNB flows e. Impact on ECB meeting next week in terms of QE The Fundamental Dilemma of all market manipulation, whether legal (as in this case) or illegal: when you stop pushing up the value of an asset, it falls back, giving you mark to market losses on your inventory. Today the SNB is taking tremendous losses on the Euro assets it has accumulated in its Euro buying binge. I would not want to be a private shareholder of the SNB (or a swiss taxpayer) on a day like this. Speaking of round numbers, the euroswiss must want to end up close to parity of 1. It will make it so much easier to do all the conversion at Davos. I notice that the Dow is down already and I note that gas is 1.86 this morning overnight from 1.92 here in Southern Ohio. Many empty rentals around my area. Many people, due to oil production in my area, have been been priced out of renting. I have several empty units but have found over the years people don39t move over the holidays nor the cold winter months unless evicted or just moving into the area. A complete background check will sort through any of those issues. Gary Rogan writes: There is enormous destruction going on of all kinds of daring, innovative oil drillers, the best of the best, which will produce damage that may last many years, as well as many traditional oil, infrastructure, transportation, etc, etc, companies but all people care about is the price of gas. Isn39t that selfish Pitt T. Maner III writes: It will be interesting to see the impacts to natural gas supplies as the number of drill rigs in operation decreases. quotIn fact, the current natural gas rig count remains 80 below its all-time high of 1,606 reached in late summer 2008. In the year-ago period, there were 372 active natural gas rigs. quot This paper gives an idea of the relationship between drilling new wells and production. Talking to a friend: quotIf a year ago somebody had said just put everything in zeroes and utilities and then forget about it until January 2018, what would we have thought of that suggestionquot And then I wondered: What is it now that would sound just as stupid As the days lengthen and the crocuses bloom, as the buzz of spring approaches, one39s thoughts turn to the icon of the warmer times of the year: baseball. Over the weekend, I was talking to a neighbor about the coming season, and he commented about the changing styles of ballparks and their effect on the game and how it39s played. Consider: Yankee Stadium is often referred to as the House that Ruth Built. I had always understood that to be a reference to the size of the ballpark. When it opened in 1923, Yankee Stadium was 60-70 percent bigger in seating than other ballparks8211accommodating the fan interest in the King of Swat. But one could argue that the moniker The House that Ruth Built was as much about the dimensions of the field as about the size of the stands. Yankee Stadium had incredibly shallow depths along the foul lines8211under 300 feet. While no one would question Ruth39s ability to belt out home runs, the quantity of those hit at home was likely aided by the short distance to the foul pole. Perhaps that39s the reason Ruth39s (and Gehrig39s) power is shown so well in extra base hits. Those aren39t helped so much by a shortened outfield. Compare Jacobs Field (now Progressive Field) in Cleveland, or Oriole Park at Camden Yards, with 320-330 along the foul lines. (The short lines were not strictly a Yankee Stadium characeteristic. Ebbets Field and Fenway Park, for instance, both had similarly short foul lines.) Big difference. (It wasn39t until 1958, tough, that dimensions like those of Yankee Stadium would be considered unacceptable under the MLB rules for new ball parks.) As we were talking, I thought about the different eras in the construction of baseball parks. There was first the innovator era, when the owners built the parks and often named the parks for themselves. Wrigley Field, for instance, named for the owner of the Cubs who play there. Not that Wrigley built the park, he just named it after himself during the late 1920s. Comiskey Park was built and named for the White Sox owner, Ebbetts Field in Brooklyn, Griffith Stadium (Washington Senators), Shibe Park (renamed Connie Mack Stadium) (Philadelphia As), and so on. (Not all were so named, though Forbes Field in Pittsburgh, for instance, was named for the soldier in the French and Indian War who named the city.) It was in this cohort of ballpark that the quotclassicalquot design took hold. It would hold sway until after World War 2, when the next era of ballparks would arrive, typified by Memorial Stadium (quotThe Old Grey Lady on 33rd Streetquotor quotThe World39s Largest Outdoor Insane Assylum, quot take your pick) in Baltimore. (At one time, at 34th and Charles Streets, by the Entrance to Johns Hopkins39s Homewood campus, there was a bust of Johns Hopkins on an island in the street. When Memorial Stadium opened, so the story goes, there was such confusion about where the stadium was8211many drivers thinking the bust was for some athlete, insisted on turning onto 34th Street, with lots of accidents, as the traffic signals were not set for lots of left turning traffic (many drivers jumping the light)8211that the bust was moved to the side of the road. At least that was the story on the Homewood campus, particularly the university39s historian during the centennial commemoration of its founding. This new cohort of ballparks was designed for mixed use8211not as a ballpark for which some other sport might be tolerated. That meant some compromises. They still abided by the general feel of the first round8211the quotowners39 roundquot8211of parks. Bricks and such, but they also started strut some steel materials wer e used to have the ballparks quotfit inquot with the surrounding community, though how something as big could quotfit inquot isn39t so straightforward. One other interesting feature to this round: Unlike the prior round, in which the teams financed the construction of the park, now municipalities were doing so. Perhaps that was the beginning of the myth that ballparks pay for themselves. At least for the baseball season, with 81 games played, I can see how there might at least be an argument for economic benefit, but for football. In any case, this round of ballparks lasted into the 1960s. It may not harken the same loyalty that the owners39 round would8211but when the baby boomers went to the park, it was as often as not one of the newer parks, and so the newer parks were embedded with pleasant memories in their brains, unless of course they were Senators39 fans, in which case I can39t talk about any association of pleasantry since my recollection of the Senators in that era was of a team more consistent with A-AA ball than the big show. And some days, sandlot might be applicable (except when Frank Howard was hitting well they didn39t look so bad then8211even the defense seemingly performed on those days). width392 height232 The Astrodome ushered in the quotmodernquot era of ballparks. It was domed8211that was new. It had a space age look (befitting its location in Houston)8211that was new. It was big8211that was new (well, it was in Texas). No longer would the fans enjoy the proximity to the field of the earlier eras. Houston being a major petrochemical center, it39s not surprising that the Astrodome also ushered in Astroturf, a plastic pseudograss that bears as much similarity to its living counterpart as an aluminum Christmas tree does to the living (or at least formerly living) one (or if you prefer, ox to bull, or McDonald39s shake to those available at many of the remaining diners still operating in the US). I39ll leave aside the issue of whether real baseball can be played on pseudograss8211a field lacking the sweet scent of mowed green blades, all in support of that most pristine shape in sports, the baseball diamond8211or has to be played on the real thing to qualify as quotrealquot baseball. There are also variations on this theme8211for instance, no dome, or a retrievable cover. Perhaps the peak of the third age can be found in the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, know affectionately in the Twin Cities, prior to its demise, as the West Bank Marshmallow. It may remain as the only site in which an MLB game was snowed out by a 15 inch blizzard on May 15, 19868211without a snowflake ever touching the field. The Metrodome was a hitter39s paradise. Four baggers would go flying out faster than an F-18 off a carrier. Maybe that39s why Kirby Puckett liked playing for the Twins so much. Regardless, while there are many who probably liked the Metrodome, it always struck me as sterile. Indeed, that39s my complaint about the third age: the ballparks lacked character, identity. There was one thing I liked about the Metrodome, though: it was right by downtown. That was not a universal characteristic. It wasn39t a feature of ballparks until the fourth era, the one we are still in. In the fourth era, ballparks went back to the early 1900s to take their style cues. Sure, modern engineering enhanced the experience, with unobstructed views. And there were the skyboxes, rights to which flowed to the team39s bottom line. But with the style going back to the classic one of the early 20th century, one might term it retro. Fans like the effect. Ballparks built over the past two decades have been designed in the retro style. Bricks, old style grillwork, often located near downtowns, and so on. Character was not absent in these places. The trend started with the building of Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Oriole Park was part of a grander scheme to revitalize Baltimore39s downtown. First, there was Harborplace, then the Aquarium (site of Willy Don39s battle with the sea lions in 1981). And then, nothing. There were a few apartment houses built, a convention center, but not much else. Downtown Baltimore still felt incomplete. With the departure of the Colts in 1984, scurrying like a thief in the night at the end of March that year, with snow flurries in the air and a Governor whose campaign theme of honest government seemed to think that it prohibited him from intervening, Baltimore39s city elders realized the risks of the Orioles leaving Baltimore (I39m not sure the name would have moved as easily as quotColtsquot did) were there, and needed to be addressed. Back in the late 1970s, the Os39 owner, Edward Bennett Williams, complained that it took too long to get from Memorial Stadium back to DC and that Baltimore alone was too small of a market to support a baseball team. Enter the Mayor, who had the police tail Williams back to DC for the next three games that he attended. When Williams next complained about the troubles of leaving 33rd Street, he was met by the Mayor noting how quickly Williams made it back to his DC office (not noted was the speed that Williams39s limousine took to achieve those times, nor the anger among the State police that Williams8211a defense attorney8211that they were under strict orders not to issue a speeding ticket to that car). Williams never complained about it again. So the city elders caucused as they were wont to do, and they decided that Memorial Stadium, beloved as she was, likely was near the end of her useful life. Barely 30, and washed up. Thus began the planning for a new ballpark in downtown Baltimore, around which further downtown development would happen. There was mass transit emerging in the city (though why Baltimore needed a subway is beyond me), and I-95 right next door to facilitate ingress and egress. That was the plan, at any rate. It took a few years to get all the plans in place, but when Camden Yards was finished, it was magnificent. So much so that it kicked off the retro trend One of the nicest ballparks built with the retro theme is ATampT Park, the replacement for Candlestick Part in San Francisco. ATampT was built in part because not only was Candlestick not economically competitive in terms of skyboxes and the like but it was arguably the worst located park in the MLB. The winds off of San Francisco Bay would howl in the summer, so much that Fisherman39s Wharf and the Presidio seemed warm even during the summer. Had the park been built a mere 75 or so yards to the west, the winds would have been less of an issue. Ditto for orientation. The fog that enveloped Candlestick during night games was legendary8211not only for the associated temperature drops, but also the challenges it presented to the player, particularly in the outfield. One of the Alou brothers once noted that at Candlestick, you could see the pitcher throw the ball, you could see the batter hit the ball, but from then until the ball came down, the fielder had to rely on instinct8211you just couldn39t see the ball all the way through the air. This was the place, after all, where Stu Miller (he died a little over a week ago) was called for a balk during the 1961 All Star game played at the spanking new Candlestick Park. Miller always contended he hadn39t balked. No matter, that39s how it was scored Of course, many of the pre-retro parks are beloved by the fans. Dodger Stadium at Chavez Ravine is a great example. Woe to the visiting team fan at Dodger Stadium. Watching Koufax pitch at home was a delight, but the fans like the ambiance of the ball park itself. There are 37 more days before Orioles pitchers and catchers report. The recent events at Petrobras have taken the investment community by storm, and there is much discussion about when the right time is to get in. Bulls figure that given the reserves and the potential that the current price is cheap and will work out well in the long term despite the current scandals. I am usually an quotasset basedquot contrarian, but in this case I am not so sure. Let me give you my perspective: I39ve worked at both Devon and Kerr-Mcgee and had many friends at Chesapeake. To preface this post, I have never been a fan of quotmanagement guruquot books and find them to mostly be trash with little insight. That being said, an excellent book could be written about the resurgence of Oklahoma City and the contrasting fortunes of Kerr-McGee, Devon, and the one-time high-flying Chesapeake Energy over the years and the differing management styles at each company. Perhaps I should write it. However with the protagonist of this post now working for one of the antagonists the final chapter cannot yet be written. If you don39t want to read a few thousand words and just want the punchline it is this: Management and management culture matters, and Devon39s former CFO Jeff Agosta is one of the main reasons for Devon39s success whereas Kerr-McGee has disappeared and Chesapeake goes through recurring crises. Interestingly enough, Jeff is no longer at Devon and now works for former Chesapeake founder Aubrey McClendon39s new company, American Energy Partners. I will write more on that later on in this post. The story for me begins in the mid to late 199039s when I was working for my father39s money management firm. Chesapeake (CHK) was a high flying driller based on horizontal drilling in the Austin Chalk. Wall Street was heavily promoting CHK and it was one of the biggest quotmomentum playsquot on the street. My father didn39t believe it. Frankly, anyone with experience in the austin chalk knew that the decline curves were massive. This time it was supposed to be different because of CHK39s horizontal drilling. Horizontal drilling, however, wasn39t going to change the nature of the austin chalk as a play, it was just going to make the initial production bigger. The problem however was that these were new wells and there wasn39t much history. At the time getting well data was a pain. We had to subscribe to a Petroleum Institute service for around 10,000 dollars per year that sent us CD39s with county well data from Louisiana which was months out of date. Sure enough, the decline curves were massive. We talked to wall street analysts, and of course they didn39t care. CHK was everyone39s favorite. A few years later CHK almost went out of business as sure enough the decline curves were massive. That was the first time I heard the name Aubrey McClendon. The next time was the summer of 2003. I was sitting at my desk at the Zurich office of Kerr-McGee Luxembourg, (thank you IRS for creating such inefficiencies). I had very little to do. I was in Zurich for 2 months for a paid internship that was put together at the last minute because the employee whose job I was doing had a stroke and Kerr-McGee needed someone to take his place while he recovered. The head of the office was an American hired in 1999 (a rare outside the ranks hire). The rest of the staff was Swiss andor German. The European marketing team from the Chemicals unit (later spun off as Tronox) also shared these offices. European Chemicals marketing was run by a Kerr-Mcgee old timer who was one of the few still around from the Karen Silkwood days. The first sign that Kerr-McGee had issues was that I didn39t really have anything to do all day. By and large I was done with my job by 10am. In addition to my day job I was given a project to research the possibility of issuing euro-denominated bonds in Europe. The project didn39t take long. Other than that I had a lot of spare time. Someone in IT at the main office in Oklahoma City seemed to have the sole job of tracking my web surfing and blocking every site that wasn39t work or finance related. The Swiss like to take long lunches and usually have a few beers at lunch as well. A directive had come down from HQ that nobody was allowed to drink at lunch but my boss told us to do what I wanted as long as he didn39t see it. So, sometimes we would take 90 minute lunches by the seaside and have a couple of beers, but that still left the entire afternoon with little to do. I had brought a lot of textbooks with me to Zurich to study finance and economics but I burned through those pretty quickly. If I could do it all over again I would have spent the time learning German, although it was also when I first started to really study body language as I could not communicate verbally. It is really the subject of another post but from my time in Panama, Switzerland, Italy, Albania, Poland, etc. I have become somewhat of an expert in reading body language. Body language doesn39t lie. People do. I now like to sit in restaurants and watch body language. It is fun to spot which woman doesn39t like her date and just wants to get out of there as quickly as possible even vs. which guy is going to get lucky that night. I39m also good now at knowing when I am being lied to - although I have had a few spectacular failures in that regard. Back to Zurich: So I started spending my spare time looking for a permanent job. Simply searching quotenergy companies in Oklahoma Cityquot got by my IT censors and I quickly gathered up the names of all the big energies companies and their officers. By googling around the domain names you can always come up with the structure of corporate email addresses (i. e. firstname. lastname or whatever) because some employee somewhere has always used his or her work address to post on a random message board. So I sent out some emails to some Oklahoma City energy company executives. The emails read as follows: Hello, my name is Gordon Haave. I am currently working for Kerr-McGee in Zurich in the corporate Treasury department. Previously I have served as Vice-President of a 300 million money management firm and as the CFO of a 20 million residential construction firm. I am returning to Oklahoma City in August and am looking for a full time job if you have any available. quot Short and simple appeals work with some people and not with others. I got replies from both Jeff Agosta (then SVP of Finance and Treasurer of Devon) and Aubrey Mclendon (CEO of Chesapeake) Aubrey was very nice as everyone always says he is. We had a brief back and forth and after inquiring around the company he told me that there was nothing available but to stay in touch. Jeff responded basically with a quotyes we are looking for someone, come and see me when you get back to Oklahomaquot. That39s how I ended up working for Devon. However, I was still working at Kerr-Mcgee. Every day was frustrating as there was little to do, and everything I did have to do basically had zero value added. Let me explain: My primary job was ensuring the accurate cash forecast of Kerr-McGee39s North Sea oil and gas operations, and to ensure that cash balances were kept at a minimum so that they could be invested in time deposits. In the morning I had to make sure time deposits were properly received that were due that day, and in the afternoon all cash had to be swept up into new time deposits. These were often overnight or just 2-3 day investments. The process was based off of the weekly cash forecast which was stored on the Kerr-McGee mainframe and accessed by everyone via Citrix. The weekly forecast started on Monday at the operating units. The operators would have to forecast DOWN TO THE PENNY every single expenditure or receipt they knew about. At the end of the day Monday the information would go to one higher level up, where it would be compiled. It would then move on to one level higher up on Wednesday to a treasury analyst for that unit. On Thursday morning I had all of the information for every unit and would complete the overall spreadsheet which presumably someone reviewed on Friday. It was a pain-staking process that took the time of at least 10 people over the course of the week to do. And to what end Of course a Treasury department needs to be able to forecast cash, but down to the penny There were times where somewhere along the way the info would be recalled because someone let out an anticipated 500 expenditure. What difference did it make if 500 was invested one day or two days Ideally if you have the exact cash balance down to the penny you can invest better. For example, if you have 1 million dollars extra and you know you can invest it for and extra 4-5 days instead of just overnight you will earn more interest. But how much Enough to have 10 people working on the thing Enough to harass operating units into worrying about that instead of worrying about their operations Of course not. I once said something to my boss about it and his response was quotyou are lucky, when I first started here they were doing this by carbon paper and fedexed around. We only changed to spreadsheet because they couldn39t buy the carbon paper anymorequot. I was in a good position to learn many other things about the corporate culture. As the young American guy there by myself the chemicals sales force guys would take me out at night on their expense accounts when they passed through town and they expressed how hampered they were by the corporate culture. Also, at the time, Kerr-McGee was spending literally millions of dollars per year on outside consultants whose job it was to change the corporate culture. One of these consultants spent a week or so in Zurich and I went out to eat and have a few drinks with him a few times. I39ll spare you the details of the horror stories but his conclusion was pretty straight-forward: quotIt39s utterly hopeless. quot I don39t want to name names but I remarked to him once that a certain person in our division seemed to be the real brains of the operation, yet he was not the head of it and I was wondering why. The answer: quotBecause X joined the company two weeks later than Y 20 years agoquot. So let39s review what I learned about Kerr-Mcgee: A. A massive number of employees doing useless jobs. B. A culture where seniority is all that matters. C. The corporate tail wagging the operating dog. After Kerr-McGee it was on to Devon in Jeff Agosta39s unit. I ran the quotcash managementquot function which included the investment of excess assets as my primary job but I also performed as somewhat of an overflow worker for other corporate finance projects as needed. What was the corporate culture at Devon Well, it depends on what part of it you worked in. In accounting it was just as bad as as Kerr-McGee. There were massive, bloated staffs of people who did their job the way they did it and simply wanted it to stay that way and didn39t want anything to change. That didn39t really matter too much except that corporate expenses were higher than they should be and landowners would be pissed off because they got their checks late. More than a few times in social settings when telling someone I worked at Devon the response would be quotwhy can39t you send your checks on timequot Corporate finance, however was a lean and mean operating machine. We had less people performing the finance and treasury functions than Kerr-McGee had working on the weekly cash forecast - and we did a good job of it too. This was all under Jeff39s leadership and direction. How did the cash forecast work When I started there was already a cash forecast spreadsheet which I later revamped. Here is how it worked: We pulled production estimates from an existing database. We pulled gas and oil prices from Bloomberg and applied a discount to them for what Devon would actually receive for oil and gas sales. We knew corporate overhead data and when payroll was due, and we knew interest and swap payments already. As to the level of accuracy achieved it was pretty straightforward. The conversation went something lie this: Me: quotJeff, given interest rates and what we can do with extra cash in terms of investments (or lack thereof) and the manpower that we will have to expend in order to get a more detailed forecast it is cheaper to just leave an extra 100 million laying around than expend the effort to harass people so that we can do more detailed forecasts like Kerr-McGee does. Plus, we don39t have to harass people who have other things they are working on. quot And that was that. A rational and efficient decision was made, without regard to quothow things are always donequot and taking into account that there is no need to be harassing operating units. Not harassing the operating units was a theme that Jeff reinforced a few times. I recall one event when a decision was made by an operating unit to bid on some blocks off of Brazil. The email I got was basically quotWe have to have 40 million dollars in an account in Brazil in three daysquot. The 40 million wasn39t a problem - remember we always had more than that just laying around. The problem was opening the account. This is was after 911 and the government was imposing all sorts of new Know Your Customer rules on the banks. To open the account Bank of America wanted endless documentation that there was basically know way I could do within 3 days. In the end I just said to our representative at B of A quotlook, this is Devon energy opening an account for a Devon subsidiary, we have 120 accounts with you. This account need to be opening tomorrow. I will send you whatever documentation you want later, but this account has to be open tomorrow. If you don39t know your customer well enough to open the account then we will have to find someone who doesquot. He opened the account. At some point during or after this event I said to Jeff quotHey, these guys (the operating unit) really have to give us more heads up next timequot. Jeff39s response was quotIt is fine for you to send them an email asking them to give you a better heads up when they can, but always remember they are the one39s who make the money. We work for them, not the other way aroundquot. Meanwhile let39s get back to Chesapeake. Aubrey McClendon the well liked and flamboyant founder had his own management approach. I can39t speak too much to the internal culture as I was not a part of it, but Aubrey was generally highly regarded by his employees. The problem was as follows: He ran the company like it was his own as opposed to running it on behalf of the shareholders. Although it is difficult to quantify this was apparent by the massive amount of money that Chesapeake through around the community in what appeared to me to be one big dose of self-promotion. Chesapeake funding was all over Oklahoma City, and the news articles praising McClendon were legion as he achieved celebrity status. Companies need to distribute money in their communities from time to time for their long run success, but Chesapeake39s giving far outstripped anything Devon or Kerr-McGee was doing. I was constantly thinking to myself quotI wonder how any of this benefits shareholdersquot Later events that are quantifiable proved me correct that indeed the company was being run in his own interested instead of the interest of the shareholders. In short, McClendon has a sweetheart deal where, after shareholders paid to acquire land McClendon got an ownership stake of 2.5 of every well drilled. He had to pay 2.5 of the drilling costs. How did he come up with the 2.5 He borrowed against his interest in the wells. Here is the problem with that: 1. McClendon was competing with Chesapeake for access to capital. 2. Let39s say the price of natural gas goes down and Chesapeake needed to curtail it39s drilling or shut-in some wells. What decision should be made Well, if McClendon has massive personal interest payments to make on his personal debt, he suddenly has a conflict of interest with the company. McClendon of course denied any conflict of interest, but it is ludicrous to believe that shareholders ever would have approved such a situation had they known about it. One defense perhaps is that the board of directors (who represent the shareholders) knew, but this is the same board of directors that bailed McClendon out of his personal financial problems buy buying his private map collection from him and awarding him a massive bonus while Chesapeake39s own fortunes were in decline. In addition McClendon was using CHK employees to do personal work for him and also never disclosed that he had a hedge fund on the side which traded in the same energy markets that CHK did. In short, he ran the company on behalf of himself, instead of on behalf of the shareholders. To contrast this behavior to what I saw at Devon: One time a senior manager operating out of Houston donated 10,000 to a charity without prior approval. As Jeff relayed to me the manager was told quotthat is the shareholders money, either get it back or pay it back yourselfquot. All of this leads to an interesting situation: Aubrey McClendon is the last person in the world I would want to look after my interests as a shareholder. Jeff Agosta is the first. Now, Jeff works for Aubrey. In January 2018 Jeff was fired as the CFO at Devon. I don39t know the scoop and have not spoken to Jeff in 6 years, but as someone with more knowledge than I do tells me: quotHe fd up on a forecastreporting issue, plus he alienated virtually everyone who worked under him with his management style, it seems. quot I have no idea myself, but that he might have alienated people under him would not be a surprise. I for one liked working in his unit. With Jeff would always knew where you stood. If you did a good job you knew it, and if you did a bad job you knew it. Not everyone is like me however. Some people care more about the 5 minutes of pleasantries that need to occur when a conversation starts and need criticism of their idea in a roundabout manner. Jeff was not that guy. More importantly, I would bet that Jeff attempted to impose his efficiency viewpoint on the rest of the company and got a lot of pushback. American Energy Partners is said to be getting ready for an IPO. My advice: figure out who is really calling the shots on the finances. If it is McClendon then take a pass. If it is Agosta then go for it if you otherwise like the company and it39s valuation. So what does all this have to do with Petrobras In the end and after years and years of attempted reform Kerr-McGee called it quits. The stock had basically gone nowhere for 20 years and eventually the chemicals unit was spun off and the Oil amp Gas assets sold to Anadarko. The archaic corporate culture just couldn39t be overcome. In all companies the allocation of capital is incredibly important. The difference between Energy companies and many other companies is that the economic consequences few key decisions will be apparent in short order. Proctor and Gamble can make bad decisions and the result will just be a slow decline in overall market share over a long period of time - this is not the case with an energy company. Petrobras can have all of the reserves in the world, but if management and the corporate culture are no good shareholders will never realize a profit from it. On December 20, 2018, at 9:38am, Jeffrey Buckalew, a successful investment banker and pilot, departed Teterboro, NJ bound for Atlanta in his Socata TBM 700 turboprop along with his wife, their two children, a business associate and the family dog. By 10:05, they were all dead. The NTSB declared the probable cause(s) of the accident to be: The airplane39s encounter with unforecasted severe icing conditions that were characterized by high ice accretion rates and the pilot39s failure to use his command authority to depart the icing conditions in an expeditious manner, which resulted in a loss of airplane control. Happily, I wasn39t working that morning, but I worked that sector for 25 years and the controller who was working the aircraft when it went down is a friend of mine. The accident highlights a couple of issues that are highly relevant to trading. First, the threat of complacency which can lead to a failure to recognize that a dangerous situation is developing, and second, the need to take action to correct the situation immediately. We must be vigilant and nimble. This excellent video by AOPA39s Air Safety Institute gives a thorough discussion of the accident and its causes. I was particularly keen on the last two minutes or so (transcribed below ) and it39s insights. In the first paragraph, replace the word aircraft with quotsystemsquot and aviation and flying with quottradingquot and you can see what I mean. Sometimes experience harms more than it helps. Rather than making us more vigilant, it can lead to a sort of comfortable complacency, not only about the dangers we face, but about our own capabilities and those of our aircraft. Complacency is arguably aviation39s most common vice, and one of the hard truths about flying is that it39s sometimes punished with extraordinary severity. The pilot of N731CA was in the clouds for a total of approximately five minutes. Roughly two minutes passed between his first indication to ATC that icing was a problem and the beginning of the final plunge. It takes time for the human mind to spin up when suddenly confronted with a problem. It takes time to recognize that things have changed and process the idea that an extraordinary response is called for. All during that time, part of the mind is fighting against the new reality, arguing quotstay the coursequot. Two minutes isn39t much time, but it39s enough time. Enough time to make a decision, declare an emergency and reverse the climb. Or, just push the nose over and worry about ATC later. Or at least, that39s what we39d like to think. The truth of the matter, which is that two minutes really isn39t much time for someone who is surprised, conflicted and almost certainly frightened, is decidedly less comforting. Anatoly Veltman writes: Yes, there is an adage that biggest losses come immediately following biggest gains. It39s also possible that big gains may follow big gains. My explanation is that what brought the initial big gains was the increase in volatility. Gary Rogan writes: So if either big losses or big gains follow big gains what is one supposed to do after big gains Stefan Martinek adds: Theoretically, we should de-leverage and adjust for volatility (I assume our initial position was volatility normalized). Practically, doing nothing and ignore some vol. spike usually does not hurt as much as believed especially for long vol. الاستراتيجيات. Exitadjustment is therefore different if strategy does well in storms or if it is killed by storms. Some trading storms are good. The notion that the United States has had a two-party system over the last hundred years is largely a fantasy. This may be another successful schoolteacher fairy tale designed to discourage quotconservativesquot from having any patience with the minority party it may be simply part of the American notion that the two teams on on the field have an equal chance that is to be determined by quothow much they want itquot. Either way, the fantasy of equal competition does not fit the facts. The Republicans have only won the trophy once in the last hundred years - in 1928. That was the only time where the Republicans continued to control both houses of Congress as a member of their party was re-elected President. The results were these: Republican House margin of majority: 12, Republican Senate margin of majority (including Vice-President39s vote in the event of a tie): 10. The Democrats, on the other hand, have 4 Super Bowl rings: 1936, 1940, 1944, and 1964. Their first - Roosevelt39s 2nd election - was the biggest blowout: Democratic House margin of majority: 30, Democratic Senate margin of majority (including Vice-President39s vote in the event of a tie): 34. Even in the era of divided government and less than landslide elections, the drift has remained in favor of the Democratic party. 2008 election results - Democratic House margin of majority: 19, Democratic Senate margin of majority (including Vice-President39s vote in the event of a tie): 21 2018 election results - Republican House margin of majority: 17, Republican Senate margin of majority (deducting Vice-President39s vote in the event of a tie): 3 What interests me is the likelihood that the United States may finally have a genuine two-party system. If it does happen, it will be because the Republicans finally become what Grant planned for them to be 140 years ago - the party of the new Constitution that included the 14th Amendment. is may actually change. The Democrats have been the party of Federal executive authority since their founding whenever possible, they have looked to the White House to order the entire country to do what they wanted - i. e. buy Louisiana, chase slaves, regulate the sale of sick chickens, etc. During my lifetime, the notion that that the States who make up the Union have equal sovereignty suffered the same fate as Grant39s reputation as President. It ceased being taught in any law or other type of school, and the presumption of absolute Federal authority became universal. Now, to my delight and surprise, the idea equal sovereignties and rights of citizenship for the States and the Union has revived. People, even judges, have read the 10th Amendment and understand the meaning of its plain language. سوف نرى. I recently connected a turntable to my professional sound system with equalizers, subwoofers, and running two 1700 watt power amps. I have a collection of several hundred vintage vinyl records from the 60s on. I was amazed anew at how full and involving the analog sound is. You can hear the wood tones in the guitar of George Benson. It makes you feel like lying down and just listening to the music, or dancing. That just doesn39t happen with CD39s or digital content. The digital sound algorithms leave out some of the feeling and nuance of the sound. Boosting the bass does nothing but cover the lack of content in the other registers. Also, they vinyl has lasted for 50 years with excellent quality. The art on the covers is fascinating. Meanwhile, my cd39s have dissolved, the cases broken, and been transferred to hard drive and lacks the same fidelity. High drama in the SampP. Like a Dumas or L39Amour n novel. (who else writes adventure like this) monday change -30 tues change -26 wed change 35 thur change 36 fri change -20 prev week change -40 Perhaps this explains the movement up in Vix. It39s like a boxing match in the final round, or a tennis rally in doubles with all 4 players at net blasting at each other. What other sport situation A very interesting article reminding us that we can estimate the standard deviation of most of our data as the range4 or (b-a)4 where b is the highest and a is the lowest obse ration. This leads to many interesting augmentations. You can quickly calculate the significance of a result by 4u x n to 12 (range). I was led to this result by a very interesting 1980 Box on evolutionary manufacturing operations. I was amazed that the authors were so clear and precise about the statistics, but then I saw that the author was Box and Draper, considered two of the world39s leading statisticians.